Chris’ Home Run Hit List (June 12, 2026): 6 MLB Long-Ball Picks

Chris’ Home Run Hit List: 6 MLB Long-Ball Picks for June 12, 2026

It’s Friday, June 12, and Chris is back with the Home Run Hit List from tonyspicks.com. The weather is heating up across the slate, and so are the bats — every game on today’s card features warm temperatures and wind blowing out, the perfect recipe for the long ball. Below are the six hitters Chris is backing to go deep, each one a right-handed power bat or favorable platoon matchup against a pitcher who has been vulnerable to the home run.

A quick reminder on how Chris plays these: straight bets are the safer, smarter way to attack a home run list. Parlay them only with money you’re prepared to lose, and keep the stakes light. It’s Friday, so a little fun on a two- or three-leg parlay is fair game — just sprinkle it and play your straights.

Spencer Horwitz (Pirates) vs Sandy Alcantara

Marlins at Pirates, 6:40 PM ET, 79 degrees, wind blowing out at 9 mph. Chris likes Spencer Horwitz to take Sandy Alcantara deep. Alcantara has surrendered seven home runs to left-handed batters this season, and Horwitz already owns eight home runs off right-handed pitching. The pitch-matchup data sweetens it: Alcantara throws his four-seam fastball 21% of the time, and Horwitz has three of his home runs off that exact pitch type. Wind out, a lefty bat with pop, and a fastball he can handle — a clean spot.

Dominic Canzone (Mariners) vs Zack Latell

Mariners at Nationals, 6:45 PM ET, 86 degrees, wind blowing out at 7 mph. Chris is on Dominic Canzone to go yard against Zack Latell. Latell has been hammered by lefties, allowing 12 home runs to left-handed batters, and Canzone brings nine home runs off right-handed pitchers. Latell leans on his four-seam fastball 33% of the time, and Canzone has three home runs off that pitch type. Warm air, wind out, and a vulnerable fastball make this one of the stronger spots on the list.

Samuel Basallo (Orioles) vs Griffin Canning

Padres at Orioles, 7:05 PM ET, 87 degrees, wind blowing out at 7 mph. Chris likes Samuel Basallo with the Orioles against Griffin Canning. Canning has allowed six home runs to left-handed batters, and Basallo carries eight home runs off right-handed pitching. Canning throws his four-seam fastball 30% of the time, and Basallo has two home runs off that pitch type. The hottest forecast on the slate at 87 degrees with the wind out gives this Camden Yards spot real long-ball upside.

Matt Olson (Braves) vs Nolan McLean

Braves at Mets, 7:15 PM ET, 85 degrees, wind blowing left to right at 9 mph. Chris is backing Matt Olson against Nolan McLean. McLean has allowed five home runs to left-handed batters, and Olson is one of the premier power bats on this list with 12 home runs off right-handed pitching. The standout number: McLean throws his four-seam fastball 20% of the time, and Olson has six home runs off that pitch type — the highest single-pitch home run count on Chris’ card today. A proven slugger with a clear edge.

Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) vs Nick Lodolo

Diamondbacks at Reds, 7:15 PM ET, 77 degrees, wind blowing out at 4 mph. Chris likes Ketel Marte to go deep against Nick Lodolo, and there’s history here — Marte has already taken Lodolo deep in a previous matchup. Lodolo has surrendered eight home runs this season, and Marte owns four home runs off left-handed pitchers. Lodolo throws his four-seam fastball 29% of the time, and Marte has five home runs off that pitch type. A homer-friendly park in Cincinnati only adds to the appeal.

Colson Montgomery (White Sox) vs Roki Sasaki

Dodgers at White Sox, 7:40 PM ET, 77 degrees, wind blowing out at 10 mph — the strongest wind on the slate. Chris closes the list with Colson Montgomery against Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has allowed five home runs to left-handed batters, and Montgomery brings 12 home runs off right-handed pitching. Sasaki throws his four-seam fastball a hefty 46% of the time, and Montgomery has four home runs off that pitch type. With the wind howling out, a fastball-heavy righty is a prime target for a lefty slugger.

Today’s Hit List Recap

Chris’ six home-run picks for Friday, June 12: Spencer Horwitz, Dominic Canzone, Samuel Basallo, Matt Olson, Ketel Marte, and Colson Montgomery. Every spot features warm weather and wind blowing out, with each hitter holding a documented power edge against the pitcher and the specific pitch type he throws most.

How to Play the Hit List

The smart, sustainable way to attack a home run list is with straight bets — each pick stands on its own, and one or two cashing can carry the day. If you want a little Friday fun, build a two-leg parlay, or a three-leg if you’re feeling dangerous, but sprinkle it and keep your straights as the foundation. Chris updates these in the video comments as they hit, and adds extra plays from games he didn’t have full data for at video time.

Please gamble responsibly. Player props and home run bets are high-variance — odds move, lineups change, so confirm your hitter is in the lineup and check the current price before wagering. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available.