Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction 6/29/25 WNBA Picks Today

The Sun are 2-14. Minnesota’s sitting at 13-2. So yeah — on paper, not a close one in this Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction 6/29/25 matchup. Connecticut hasn’t won a game in weeks, and they’re dragging a five-game losing streak into Target Center. Minnesota just dropped one to Washington but bounced back against Atlanta. This isn’t a playoff-decider or rivalry tilt — but it is a spot where the Lynx can keep their foot on the gas and push for best record in the league. For the Sun, it’s about salvaging anything.

Also, for anyone heading to the game: weather’s looking mostly dry in Minneapolis on Sunday. Temps in the upper 70s. Slight breeze. No rain in the forecast, so fans should be good traveling in. No delays expected — but as always, keep an eye on traffic downtown. And if you’re hunting multi-capper premium tips, make sure you’re factoring in Connecticut’s brutal form on the road.

Connecticut Sun (2-14) vs. Minnesota Lynx (13-2)

Connecticut’s sitting at 2-14 and just trying to survive at this point. They’ve dropped five straight — all by 8+ points — and haven’t won a road game all year. Their last five losses came against Seattle, Las Vegas, Golden State, Dallas, and Phoenix, and only one of those was even remotely close. Offensively, it’s been rough. They’re putting up just 71.6 points a night on 38.9% shooting. They’re near the bottom in threes (29.5%) and turn the ball over too much (14.1 per game). Tina Charles leads the team in scoring at 15.6 PPG, but it’s a thin roster without much behind her. Marina Mabrey’s still out with a knee injury, and Leïla Lacan’s not available yet due to overseas play — so the backcourt depth is hurting. Defense hasn’t been reliable either, giving up over 85 in four straight games.

Minnesota’s on the other end of the spectrum — 13-2 and looking locked in. They’ve won 4 of their last 5, beating Atlanta, LA twice, and Las Vegas with their only slip being a tight one against Washington. Napheesa Collier’s been playing like an MVP — 24.5 points, 8.4 boards, almost 2 steals and blocks per game. The team is top-three in both FG% (46.5%) and assists (23.7 APG), and they’re shooting nearly 37% from deep. Defensively, they’re top-tier — 5.1 blocks per game, allowing under 75 points at home, and they don’t foul much. No major injuries. They’re healthy, deep, and disciplined — and have every tactical edge in this matchup.

Why the Total Might Be the Smarter Play

• Connecticut ranks last in scoring and FG% — just 71.6 PPG and 38.9% shooting
• Minnesota has hit the under in 6 of their last 9 games
• Lynx allow just 74.3 points per game at home
• The Sun haven’t broken 83 points in their last 10 games
• Spread is massive at 20.5 — so backdoor risk is high; total gives more control
• Connecticut likely struggles to hit 70 against this defense

WNBA Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota Lynx -20.5, Total Odds: 154.5

Market’s telling you this is a mismatch. A 20.5-point spread isn’t common in the WNBA. The moneyline at -5000 on Minnesota says it’s basically over already. But most sharps won’t touch that spread. Too much room for garbage time risk. Total sitting around 154.5 suggests books expect a slower, low-scoring pace — which tracks with how Connecticut’s been playing. The smarter angle here might be looking at the under.

Connecticut Sun Betting Trends

• 4-1 ATS in last 5 — somehow covering despite the losses
• 0-5 SU last 5 — just not competitive late in games
• 0-5 SU in last 5 road games — travel’s been a problem
• 1-4 SU in last 5 vs. Minnesota — recent history’s rough

Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends

• 4-1 ATS in last 5 — covering big numbers
• 12-2 SU in last 14 — rolling
• Under is 6-3 in last 9 games — defense holding up
• 4-1 SU in last 5 vs. Connecticut — match up well

Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx 6/29/25 Betting Picks

Minnesota is the better team in every single category: shooting, defense, rebounding, ball movement, even turnovers. And they’re doing it with no key injuries, playing at home, against a team that’s short-handed and worn down. Connecticut’s covered a few recently, but barely. Most of those were inflated lines that they snuck under late. That can’t be trusted here.

Best angle might be on the total. Sun can’t score, and Lynx don’t play fast enough to make up the gap. If Connecticut doesn’t crack 70, this game might not sniff 150. Lean Under 154.5. Not touching that spread — it’s just too big for a Lynx team that could coast after halftime. Prop-wise, Napheesa Collier over points or rebounds might be worth a look if books offer a soft number.

Score Prediction: Connecticut Sun 62, Minnesota Lynx 85.