Free MLB Picks For Today 5/1/2024
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Cardinals at Tigers—Miles Mikolas to start for St Louis. Mikolas in six starts delivers an ERA of 5.91 with WHIP of 1.47. The veteran strikes out 18% with 5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 40.4% with 1.69 home runs per nine innings. Kenta Maeda to start for Detroit. Maeda in five starts has an ERA of 5.96 with WHIP of 1.37. The righthander has also seen his strikeouts plummet to 17% with 7% walks. Grounders come in at 43.2% with 2.78 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The team record behind Maeda is 3-12 in Day Games the past two seasons with a -11.5-unit loss. St Louis in their first 16 on the road has a bullpen ERA of 2.90. Play St Louis -105.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Rays at Brewers—Zach Eflin to start for Tampa Bay. Eflin in six starts produces an ERA of 4.08 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander fans 20.3% with 2.7% walks. Grounders served at 42.5% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings. Colin Rea is the starter for Milwaukee. Rea has five starts with an ERA of 3.25 with WHIP of 1.27. The righty has seen his strikeouts drop to 15.1% with 7.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 36% with 1.63 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.28 suggests a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Brewers in their sixteen games against right-handed starters are hitting .267 and putting up 5.5 runs per game winning 15 of those games. The Rays in their 20 games against right-handed starters are pushing across 3.7 runs per game. The team record behind Rea is 10-2 when an underdog of +100 to +150 the past two seasons with a +10.8 unit return and 17-9 when he faces teams averaging seven strikeouts or greater the past two seasons. Play Milwaukee +108.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Twins at White Sox—Bailey Ober to start for Minnesota. Ober in five starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander sees 24.5% strikeouts with 6.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 28.6% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Chris Flexen to start for Chicago. Flexen in six appearances has an ERA of 5.11 with WHIP of 1.34. The veteran has seen his strikeouts drop to 12.4% with 9.5% walks. Grounders dished at 40.2% with 1.46 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Ober in his three road starts has an ERA of 6.14. Chicago offense has produced more runs and hitting the past seven games. Team record behind Flexen 27-17 when facing an AL team with an OBP of .320 or lower with a +15.5-unit return. Play Chicago +172.
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Royals at Blue Jays—Seth Lugo to start for Kansas City. Lugo has six starts in 2024 carrying an ERA of 1.66 with WHIP of 1.11. The veteran has seen his K’s drop to 15.2% with 6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 39.8% with limited home run damage. Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt in six starts has an ERA of 5.64 with WHIP of 1.85. The righthander fans 21.4% with 12.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 37% with 1.78 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Toronto bullpen in their thirteen home games has an ERA of 5.86. They are hitting .224 against right-handed starters and putting p 3.7 runs per game. The Royals are putting up 4.7 runs per game against right-handed starters. The Blue Jays are 16-21 when favored at home by -125 to -175 with a -14.7-unit loss. Toronto is 7-16 facing an AL starter with an ERA of 3.40 or lower the past two seasons with a -12.4-unit loss. Play Kansas City +123.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Pirates at Athletics—Quinn Priester to start for Pittsburgh. Priester in two starts on the campaign allowed four earned runs, three homers, and eight strikeouts in 10 1/3rd innings. He started the season in the Minors. Last season, in ten appearances he carried an ERA of 7.74 with WHIP of 1.70. The righthander struck out 15.4% with 11.5% walks. Grounders dealt at 52.4% with 2.16 home runs per nine innings. Ross Stripling to start for Oakland. Stripling in six starts has an ERA of 4.98 with WHIP of 1.49. The veteran fans 16.9% with 5.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 36.3% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.52 suggesting a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
The Athletics in their first fourteen home games have a bullpen ERA of 2.78. The Pirates in their first 18 games on the road have a bullpen ERA of 4.07. In their past seven games they are hitting .200 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The Pirates are 30-50 when lined at +125 to -125 the past two seasons with a -19.1-unit loss. Play Oakland +101.
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Braves at Mariners—Chris Sale to start for Atlanta. Sale has five starts on the year posting an ERA of 3.69 with WHIP of 0.92. The lefthander strikes out 26.8% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 48.1% with 1.14 home runs per nine innings. Emerson Hancock to start for Seattle. Hancock in five starts has an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.13. The rookie righty is striking out 17.3% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 34.9% with 1.69 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Seattle in their first seventeen home games had a bullpen ERA of 2.06. They are hitting .191 against the eight left-handed starters they have faced going under in seven of those games. Atlanta bullpen in their first 12 on the road has a bullpen ERA of 2.88. Past seven games the Braves are batting .237 and putting up 3.6 runs per game. The Braves are 9-1 to the under in their first ten games against the AL. The Mariners are 10-1 to the under as a home underdog of +125 or greater the past three seasons. Play Atlanta and Seattle under 7.5.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Phillies at Angels—Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler in six starts on the campaign carries an ERA of 1.93 with WHIP of 0.88. The veteran has an elite K rate of 31.1% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 52.8% with limited home run damage. Patrick Sandoval to start for Los Angeles. Sandoval has six starts with an ERA of 6.33 and WHIP of 1.78. The lefthander fans 22% with 11% walks. Ground balls sit at 48.8% with 0.67 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Los Angeles bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.88. They are hitting .223 in their 12 Day games, losing 10 of those games. The Team record behind Sandoval is 1-11 to the run line when facing a team outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per game or greater the past two seasons with a -13.3-unit loss and 2-14 to the run line against a winning team the past two seasons with a -15.8-unit loss. Play Philadelphia on the run line -1.5 runs at +100.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Reds at Padres—Graham Ashcraft to start for Cincinnati. Ashcraft in five starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 4.40 with WHIP of 1.29. The righthander strikes out 21.3% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 52.8% with 1.57 home runs per nine innings. Joe Musgrove to start for San Diego. Musgrove has seven starts with an ERA of 6.94 and WHIP of 1.66. The veteran has seen his K rate drop to 17.1% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.6% with 2.31 home runs per nine innings and line drive contact up.
The Pick:
Ashcraft in his three starts on the road has an ERA of 2.00. In their first 18 home games the Padres have lost 12 of those games hitting .228. The Reds against right-handed starters are putting up 5 runs per game. San Diego is 17-26 at home when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a -15.1 unit return. Play Cincinnati +118.
PART 2
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Yankees at Orioles—Luis Gill to start for New York. Gil in five starts has an ERA of 4.01 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander has an elite K rate of 32.4% with 17.6% walks. Ground balls served at 40.4% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings. Corbin Burnes to start for Baltimore. Burnes has six starts in 2024 dealing an ERA of 2.55 with WHIP of 0.93. The veteran fans 25.5% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 44.1% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.68 suggests a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Yankees bullpen in their eighteen games on the road has an ERA of 1.95. Past seven games the Yankees are hitting .300 and putting up 6.6 runs per game. Play New York +139.
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Rockies at Marlins—Dakota Hudson to start for Colorado. Hudson has five starts dealing an ERA of 6.57 with WHIP of 1.78. The veteran fans 13.8% with 12.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 55.4% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. Roddery Munoz to start for Miami. Roddery Munoz to start for Miami. Munoz in his MLB debut allowed two runs, all homers, with seven strikeouts in five innings. He was drafted by Miami in 2018 and has struggled in the Minors the past two seasons in Triple A.
The Pick:
The Miami bullpen in their 18 home games has an ERA of 5.99 losing 15 of those games. The Marlins are 1-11 when lined at home between -100 and -150 with a -13-unit loss. Play Colorado +129.
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Giants at Red Sox—Daulton Jefferies expected to start for San Francisco. Jefferies in his lone start allowed five runs with two homers and nine hits in two innings at San Diego. He has fifteen career appearances since 2020 with an ERA of 6.33 and WHIP of 1.46 striking out 38 batters in 58 1/3rd innings. Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford has six starts on the campaign producing an ERA of 1.35 with WHIP of 1.11. The righty is fanning 24.6% with 8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.7% with no homers allowed.
The Pick:
The Boston bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.49 in their fourteen home games where they have lost eight of those games. The team record behind Crawford is 2-12 at home the past two seasons with a -13.8-unit loss and 1-9 in night home games with -10.6 unit loss. Play San Francisco +117.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Cubs at Mets—Shota Imanaga to start for Chicago. Imanaga in five starts on the year carries an ERA of 0.98 with WHIP of 0.80. The lefty has a K rate of 25.9% with 2.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 36.8% with 0.65 home runs per nine innings. Jose Butto to start for New York. Butto has four starts with an ERA of 2.86 and WHIP of 1.09. The righthander is striking out 27.8% with 13.3% walks. Grounders dished at 38% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.10 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
New York in their seventeen home games is hitting .216 losing nine of those games and putting up 3.6 runs per game. Chicago is putting up 4.7 runs per game against righthanded starters, winning 16 of their 24 games against them. New York is 21-36 against left-handed starters the past two seasons with a -24 unit loss. Play Chicago -121.
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Nationals at Rangers—Trevor Williams to start for Washington. Williams in five starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 2.70 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander is striking out 18.8% with 7.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 45.9% with no homers allowed. Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney in five starts delivers an ERA of 6.26 with WHIP of 1.26. The lefthander strikes out 21.6% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 33.8% with 1.96 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Heaney has been pounded in his two home starters allowing ten runs in 9 2/3rd innings. The Nationals in their 17 road games has an ERA of 3.46 winning 10 of those games. Washington is 46-51 when a road underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a +30.9-unit return. Play Washington +150.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Guardians at Astros—Triston McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie has five starts in 2024 producing an ERA of 4.91 with WHIP of 1.68. The righthander strikes out 17.6% with 16.7% walks. Ground balls served at 30.3% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander in two starts allowed two earned runs with 11 strikeouts in 10 1/3rd innings. He missed a couple of weeks with a shoulder ailment. The veteran started 27 games last year with an ERA of 3.22 and WHIP of 1.13. He struck out 21.5% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls were dished at 35.5% with 1.00 home run per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cleveland bullpen in their 17 road games has an ERA of 2.48. They are hitting .216 in the past seven games. The Guardians are 29-15 to the under when lined at +125 to +175 the past two seasons. Verlander is 19-6 to the under when favored by -125 to -175. Play Cleveland and Houston under 8.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/1/2024
Dodgers at Diamondbacks—Yoshinobu Yamamoto to start for Los Angeles. Yamamoto in six starts carries an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 1.07. The righty has an elite K rate of 31.9% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37.5% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 2.65 which suggests a drop in ERA based on form. Jordan Montgomery to start for Arizona. Montgomery was pushed to Wednesday due to a two hour delay with bees forming behind home plate. Jordan Montgomery to start for Arizona. Montgomery in two starts allowed four earned runs with seven strikeouts in 13 innings. He signed his free agent contract in late March.
The Pick:
The team record behind Montgomery is 15-24 the past two seasons with a -20.1-unit loss. Montgomery missed much of Spring Training and is pitching to uncomfortable high contact this season which is a major concern facing this Dodgers lineup. Play Los Angeles -130.