Free MLB Picks For Today 5/21/2024
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New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Mets at Guardians—Adrian Houser to start for New York. Houser appeared in eight games in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 7.44 with WHIP of 1.84. The righthander strikes out 14.6% with 47.8% walks. Ground balls dished at 47.8% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings. Carlos Carrasco to start for Cleveland. Carrasco has nine starts with an ERA of 5.16 with a WHIP of 1.46. The veteran fans 17.2% with 9.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.2% with 1.59 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Guardians bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.24 in their first 21 games. They have won 16 of 22 at home. The Mets are hitting .226 against the American League. New Yokr is 1-9 versus the AL Central the past two seasons. They are 28-57 as an underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a -20.5-unit loss. Cleveland is 27-13 facing a team that averages seven or greater strikeouts per game with a +12.5-unit return. Play Cleveland -114.
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Padres at Reds—Joe Musgrove to start for San Diego. Musgrove has eight starts on the campaign posting an ERA of 6.37 with WHIP of 1.51. The righthander is striking out 20.1% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 39.5% with 2.20 home runs per nine innings. Andrew Abbott is the starter for Cincinnati. Abbott in nine starts has an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.14. The lefthander is fanning 20.1% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 34.2% with 1.62 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.74 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
San Diego is 15-9 on the road as they are hitting .288 and putting up 5.5 runs per game. The Reds are batting .215 at home. The Padres ae 12-3 in road night games this season with a +11.1-unit return. Cincinnati has lost 14 of 17. Play San Diego -116.
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Rangers at Phillies—Jon Gray to start for Texas. Gray appeared in ten games on the year deals with an ERA of 2.08 with WHIP of 1.17. The veteran strikes out 24.1% with 6.5% walks. Grounders dished at 44.9% with limited home run damage. Ranger Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez in nine starts has an ERA of 1.37 with WHIP of 0.76. The lefthander fans 26.5% with 4.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 57.1% with 0.61 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 2.72 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
The past seven games the Rangers are batting .193 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. They hit .207 against left-handed starters. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 7.50 in their 13 games. Philadelphia is putting up 6.4 runs per game against the American League and batting .275. The Phillies are 9-0 to the run line behind Suarez this season with a +10.2-unit return. Play Philadelphia on the run line -1.5 runs at +125.
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Giants at Pirates—Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb has ten starts on the year dealing with an ERA of 3.03 and WHIP of 1.35. The righthander is striking out 18.7% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls delivered at 58.4% with limited home run damage. Martin Perez will start for Pittsburgh. Perez in nine starts has an ERA of 4.86 with WHIP of 1.50. The lefthander fans 18.2% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.4% with 1.44 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Pirates are batting .220 against right-handed starters, losing 19 of 31 against them. San Francisco in their past seven games is betting .291 and putting up 6.3 runs per game. Pittsburgh is 17-32 when lined between +125 and -125 at home with a -14.7-unit loss the past two seasons. The team record behind Webb is 29-10 facing an NL team hitting .245 or worse in his career with a +19.1-unit return. Play San Francisco -129.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Brewers at Marlins—Robert Gasser to start for Milwaukee. Gasser in two starts allowed one earned run with six strikeouts in 11 innings of work. He was a draft pick in 2021 out of Houston who put up good numbers in Triple A last year in 135 1/3rd innings. Trevor Rogers to start for Miami. Rogers has nine starts with an ERA of 5.79 and WHIP of 1.76. The lefthander is striking out 18.4% with 9.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 49.7% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Miami is batting .212 against left-handed starters, losing 16 of 17 this season against them with a -16-unit loss. The Marlins bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.22. The Brewers bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.86 in their first 25 games. Milwaukee is 52-31 when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a +13.8-unit return. The team record behind Rogers is 3-16 at home the past three seasons with a -16-unit loss. Play Milwaukee -135.
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Twins at Nationals—Joe Ryan will start for Minnesota. Ryan has nine starts in the campaign, having an ERA of 3.57 with WHIP of 1.02. The righthander is striking out 27.4% with 3.3% walks. Ground balls served at 36.8% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. Patrick Corbin will start for Washington. Corbin in nine starts has an ERA of 5.59 and WHIP of 1.74. The lefthander is fanning 13.2% with 8.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 48.2% with 0.74 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Minnesota is batting .168 in their past seven games. The Nationals bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.78 in their first 17 games. Washington is 18-17 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 the past two seasons with a +14.6-unit return. The team record behind Corbin is 14-15 as an underdog of +150 or greater the past two seasons. Play Washington +160.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Red Sox at Rays—Cooper Criswell is the starter for Boston. Criswell has seven appearances on the season putting up an ERA of 2.76 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander fans 23.3% with 5.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 45.8% with 1.53 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.37 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold. Zack Littell will start for Tampa Bay. Littell in nine starts has an ERA of 3.44 with WHIP of 1.31. The righty is fanning 22.6% with 3.8% walks. Ground balls served at 35.3% with 0.72 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Red Sox are batting .207 in their first seven divisional games. The Red Sox are 52-84 against the division in the past three seasons with a -30.6 unit loss. Play Tampa Bay -132.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Mariners at Yankees—Byran Woo is the starter for Seattle. Woo in his two starts allowed one earned run with eight strikeouts in 9 2/3rd innings. The righthander was sidelined with elbow inflammation. In his rookie campaign in 2023 he had a 25.1% strikeout mark with 8.4% walks. Grounders sat at 40.3% with 1.33 home runs per nine innings. Clarke Schmidt will start for New York. Schmidt has nine starts with an ERA of 2.49 with WHIP of 1.13. The righty is fanning 27% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 38% with 0.89 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
New York in their past seven games is batting .300 and putting up 5.9 runs per game. Their bullpen has an ERA of 2.78 in their first 22 home games. New York is 27-10 facing right-handed starters this season with a +16.6-unit return. The Yankees are 13-5 to the run line in May with a +8.2-unit return. Seattle is 27-45 to the run line facing teams that average 1.25 home runs per game or greater the past two seasons with a -24.3-unit loss. Play New York on run line -1.5 runs at +132.
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
White Sox at Blue Jays—Garrett Crochet will start for Chicago. Crochet has ten starts in the campaign producing an ERA of 4.18 and WHIP of 1.01. The lefthander has an elite K rate of 33.7% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 45.2% with 1.39 home runs per nine innings. Yusei Kikuchi will start for Toronto. Kikuchi has nine starts with an ERA of 2.60 with WHIP of 1.10. The lefty is fanning 26.3% with 4.8% walks. Grounders come in at 44.1% with 0.69 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Toronto’s bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.66 in their 21 games with the White Sox pen on the road an ERA of 1.34 in their 23 games. The Blue Jays are batting .226 against left-handed starters losing six of their nine games against them this season. The team record behind Kikuchi is 24-31 when favored by -110 or hither in his career with a -22.1-unit loss and 7-12 against losing teams the past three seasons with a -12.7 unit loss. Play Chicago +163.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Tigers at Royals—Casey Mize to start for Detroit. Mize has eight starts in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander is striking out 17.5% with 5.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 52.1% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings. Alec Marsh will start for Kansas City. Marsh in seven starts delivers an ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 1.05. The righty is fanning 20.7% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 37.1% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Detroit’s bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.71 in their 24 games. KC is hitting .230 against their division. Their pitching staff hold divisional teams to 2.11 batting and 2.2 runs per game in their fourteen games. The team is 30-15 to the under with Mize. The Tigers are 24-10 to the under facing an AL starter with a WHIP of 1.20 or lower the past three seasons. KC is 21-10 to the under facing an AL team with a slugging percentage of .410 or lower this season. Play Detroit and Kansas City under 9.5.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Braves at Cubs—Charlie Morton to start for Atlanta. Morton has eight starts in 2024 carrying an ERA of 3.52 with WHIP of 1.15. The veteran is fanning 23.7% with 9.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.1% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Javier Assad will start for Chicago. Assad in nine starts has an ERA of 1.49 with WHIP of 1.03. The righthander strikes out 21.6% with 7.7% walks. Grounders dealt at 45.9% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
Chicago is batting .180 in their past seven games, putting 2.4 runs per game. The Braves are batting .254 against right handers putting up 4.5 runs per game. The Cubs are 34-54 when lined at +125 to -125 the past three seasons with a -21.9-unit loss. Play Atlanta -118.
Baltimore Orioles vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Orioles at Cardinals—Kyle Bradish to start for Baltimore. Bradish in his three starts in 2024 deals with an ERA of 2.63 and WHIP of 1.32. The righthander strikes out 27.9% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 57.1% with no homers allowed. Lance Lynn to start for St Louis. Lynn has nine starts with an ERA of 4.17 with WHIP of 1.48. The veteran fans 21.3% with 9.9% walks. Grounders sit at 38.5% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Orioles in their past seven games are batting .214. St Louis has been hot at the plate as in this period hitting .294 and scoring 6.4 runs per game. St Louis is 14-5 facing the AL East the past two seasons. Play St Louis +138.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Angels at Astros—Griffin Canning to start for Los Angeles. Canning has nine starts this season, dealing with an ERA of 5.21 with WHIP of 1.35. The righthander fans 16.8% with 8.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 32.2% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. Cristian Javier is the starter for Houston. Javier has six starts in the year with an ERA of 3.23 and WHIP of 1.24. The righty is fanning 20.2% with 12.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 27.9% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.29 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Angels bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.40. The Angels are hitting .235 against right-handed starters. Javier is 12-1 to the under when favored by -175 and -250. Houston is 32-18 to the under facing a team getting outscored by 0.5 runs per game or greater the past two seasons. Play Los Angeles and Houston under 9.
Colorado Rockies vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Rockies at Athletics—Cal Quantrill will start for Colorado. Quantrill in nine starts on the season provides an ERA of 3.66 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander has a strikeout mark of 16.7% with 9.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 50% with 1.22 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.79 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Aaron Brooks to start for Oakland. Brooks in his 2024 debut allowed three earned runs with five strikeouts in seven innings. The 34-year-old righty has appeared in 53 games in his career with an ERA of 6.45 and WHIP of 1.49 striking out 135 batters in 187 innings.
The Pick:
Oakland in their past seven games is batting .207 and putting up 1.9 runs per game. They have lost 10 of 11. Colorado is in the better hitting form. The team record behind Quantrill is 14-7 when an underdog of +100 to +150 the past two seasons with a +10.4 unit return and 19-9 when facing a team averaging 2.75 extra base hits or fewer the past two seasons with a +13.1-unit return. Play Colorado +120.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/21/2024
Diamondbacks at Dodgers—Brandson Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt in nine starts on the season deals with an ERA of 4.17 and WHIP of 1.11. The righthander fans 22.8% with 4.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 39.9% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. Gavin Stone will start for Los Angeles. Stone has eight starts with an ERA of 3.27 with WHIP of 1.27. The righty is striking out 15.8% with 8.7% walks. Grounders dished at 43.8% with 0.61 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles in their night games are hitting .273 and putting up 6 runs per game. They are 21-12 to the run line in night games with a +8.3-unit return. The Arizona bullpen on the road has an ERA of 4.92. The Dodgers are 49-33 to the run line facing teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher the past two seasons with a +13.3-unit return. Play Los Angeles on run line -1.5 runs at -1.5 runs at +129.