Free MLB Picks For Today 4/5/2024
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Blue Jays at Yankees—Yusei Kikuchi to start for Toronto. Kikuchi started 32 games in 2023 posting an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.27. The lefthander struck out 25.9% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls sat at 39.7% with 1.45 home runs per nine innings. He opened the year at Tampa Bay and allowed three earned runs with three walks in 4 1/3rd innings. Marcus Stroman to start for New York. Stroman had 27 appearances last year with an ERA of 3.95 with WHIP of 1.26. The veteran fanned 20.7% with 9% walks. Ground balls dished at 57.1% with limited home run damage. His first start was at Houston and allowed no earned runs with four strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
Team record behind Kikuchi is 16-5 facing a winning team the past two seasons with a +17.1 unit return. Team record behind Stroman 5-13 in April home games in his career. The Blue Jays are 2-1 in their Day games this season averaging 6 runs per game. Play Toronto +134.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Athletics at Tigers—JP Sears to start for Oakland. Sears started 32 games last year carrying an ERA of 4.54 with WHIP of 1.26. The lefthander had a K rate of 21.9% with 7.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 29.1% with 1.78 home runs per nine innings. He faced Cleveland at home to start the season and allowed five earned runs with two walks in 3 2/3rd innings. Tarik Skubal to start for Detroit. Skubal started 15 games in 2023 with an ERA of 2.80 with WHIP of 0.90. The lefthander had an elite K rate of 32.9% with 4.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 51.6% with limited home run damage. In his opener he allowed no runs with six strikeouts in six innings at the White Sox.
The Pick:
Detroit is hitting just .156 against lefthanders. The Athletics hit only .201 and averaging 2.1 runs per game. The Oakland bullpen has been respectable, and the Tigers have gotten elite performance from their bullpen. Play Oakland and Detroit under 7.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Dodgers at Cubs—Bobby Miller to start for Los Angeles. Miller in 22 starts in 2023 produced an ERA of 3.76 with WHIP of 1.10. The righthander fanned 23.6% with 6.3% walks. Grounders served at 47.7% with 0.87 home runs per nine innings. His initial start was home to St Louis and allowed no runs with two hits with 11 strikeouts in six innings. Kyle Hendricks is the starter for Chicago. Hendricks had 24 starts last season delivering an ERA of 3.74 with WHIP of 1.20. The righthander struck out 16.1% with 47% walks. Grounders sat at 46.3% with 0.85 home runs per nine innings. His opening assignment came against Texas on the road, and he allowed five earned runs with two homers and two walks in 3 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles 92-45 when favored by -125 to -175 with a +24.7 unit return the past three seasons. Los Angeles is hitting .305 against right-handed starters and putting up 6.8 runs per game on them. Hendricks high contact and form the issue here as is the Cubs bullpen. Play Los Angeles -165.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Rays at Rockies—Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell appeared in 28 games last year dealing an ERA of 4.10 with WHIP of 1.18. The righthander struck out 19.5% with 3.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.5% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. His first start this season came at home to Toronto where he allowed no runs with six strikeouts in six innings. Austin Gomber to start for Colorado. Gomber in 27 starts in 2023 carried an ERA of 5.50 with WHIP of 1.49. The lefthander fanned 14.4% with 7.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.6% with 1.68 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Diamondbacks on the road in the opener and allowed four earned runs with two homers and three walks in 4 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Colorado 41-48 as a home underdog of +125 or greater with a +17.7 unit return. The team record behind Gomber 15-9 as an underdog of +125 to +175 with a +13.1 unit return. The Rays have struggled offensively to start the season. Their bullpen ERA is 6.15 this year. Play Colorado +142.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Orioles at Pirates—Grayson Rodriguez to start for Baltimore. Rodriguez had 23 starts a season ago dealing an ERA of 4.35 with WHIP of 1.34. The second year righthander struck out 25% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 47.2% with 1.18 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Angels at home in the season opener surrendering one earned run with nine strikeouts in six innings. Jared Jones to start for Pittsburgh. Jones in his MLB debut allowed three earned runs with ten strikeouts in 5 2/3rd innings at Miami. A second-round pick in 2020 out of Whittier California out of high school. He posted good strikeout marks in his stops in the minor leagues.
The Pick:
Massive step up in class for the Pirates after facing the Marlins and Nationals to start the season. Baltimore is 17-2 as a road favorite of -125 or greater the past three seasons with a +14.1-unit return. They are hitting right-handed starters and pushing across 6.7 runs per game against them. Play Baltimore -135.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Padres at Giants—Dylan Cease to start for San Diego. Cease had 33 starts last season producing an ERA of 4.58 with WHIP of 1.42. The veteran fanned 27.3% with 10.1% walks. Ground balls sat at 36% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings. He opened 2023 at home to San Francisco allowing two earned runs with six strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings. Jordan Hicks to start for San Francisco. Hicks in 65 bullpen appearances in 2023 delivered an ERA of 3.29 with WHIP of 1.36. The righty fanned 28.4% with 11.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 58.3% with limited home run damage. In his first start he allowed no runs with six strikeouts in five innings at San Diego.
The Pick:
San Diego is 21-38 when lined between +125 and -125 with a -19.7-unit loss the past two seasons. Was more impressed with the Giants getting some runs on the Dodgers pitching staff. Play San Francisco -116.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Mets at Reds—Jose Quintana to start for New York. Quintana started 13 games last year dealing an ERA of 3.57 with WHIP of 1.31. The lefthander struck out 18.8% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 41.6% with limited home run damage. He faced the Brewers at home to start the season allowing two earned runs with a homer and four strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings. Hunter Greene to start for Cincinnati. Greene had 22 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 4.82 with WHIP of 1.42. The righthander had a K rate of 30.5% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.4% with 1.53 home runs per nine innings. His first start came against Washington at home and allowed two earned runs, four walks, seven strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
New York is hitting .196 against righthanders. The Mets are 8-21 on the road as an underdog of +100 to +150 the past two seasons. The Reds are 46-31 against losing teams the past two seasons with a +19-unit return. Play Cincinnati -117.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Phillies at Nationals—Aaron Nola to start for Philadelphia. Nola started 32 in 2023 collecting an ERA of 4.46 with WHIP of 1.15. The veteran struck out 25.5% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 42.6% with 1.49 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Braves at home to open the year allowing six earned runs with two homers and 11 hits in 4 1/3rd innings. Patrick Corbin will start for Washington. Corbin had 32 starts last year posting an ERA of 5.20 with WHIP of 1.48. The lefthander fanned 15.7% with 7.2% walks. Grounders dealt at 44.2% with 1.65 home runs per nine innings. In his opener he allowed four earned runs with two homers in 4 1/3rd innings at Cincinnati.
The Pick:
Philadelphia is hitting .216 in night games and has a bullpen ERA of 7.98. Nationals have been hitting. Washington is 14-10 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 the past two seasons with a +14.8-unit return. Corbin 12-10 as an underdog of +150 or higher the past two seasons. Play Washington +163.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Diamondbacks at Braves—Tommy Henry to start for Arizona. Henry appeared in 17 games in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.15 with WHIP of 1.36. The lefthander struck out 16.8% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.2% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home to Colorado, allowing five earned runs with two walks in four innings. Spencer Strider to start for Atlanta. Strider started 32 games last year carrying an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander fanned 36.8% with 7.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 34.1% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. His first start was against the Phillies on the road giving up two earned runs with eight strikeouts in five innings.
The Pick:
Atlanta is 0-2 facing lefthanders hitting only .187 with a recent loss to the White Sox. Arizona bullpen has performed well. The Diamondbacks are 31-29 as a road underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a +14.4-unit return. Play Arizona +226.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
White Sox at Royals—Erick Fedde to start for Chicago. Fedde in 27 starts last year carried an ERA of 5.81 with WHIP of 1.63. The righthander struck out 16.4% with 10.1% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.9% with 1.49 home runs per nine innings. He opened the season at home to Detroit allowing two earned runs, two homers with seven strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings. Brady Singer to start for Kansas City. Singer had 29 starts in 2023 posted an ERA of 5.52 with WHIP of 1.45. The righty fanned 18.9% with 7% walks. Ground ball rate of 49.5% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home to Minnesota allowing no runs with ten strikeouts in seven innings.
The Pick:
Both bullpens have struggled this year. Singer 9-1 to the over when the total is lined between 7 to 8.5 the past two seasons. Play Chicago and Kansas City over 8.5.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Astros at Rangers—Hunter Brown to start for Houston. Brown appeared in 31 games last year dealt an ERA of 5.09 with WHIP of 1.36. The young righthander struck out 26.8% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls sat at 52.4% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings. His opening start came at home to the Yankees where he allowed no earned runs with five strikeouts in four innings. Cody Bradford to start for Texas. Bradford had 20 appearances in 2023 posting an ERA of 5.30 with WHIP of 1.21. The lefty had a K rate of 21.8% with 5.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 32.1% with 1.77 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Cubs at home in the opener allowing two earned runs with six strikeouts in five innings.
The Pick:
Texas is hitting .294 at home and putting up 6.7 runs per game. Houston bullpen has an ERA of 6.00 and averaging only 2.5 runs per game against lefthanders. Houston 34-45 when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a -22.6-unit loss. Texas 46-33 when lined at +125 to -125 the past two seasons with a +12.2-unit return. Play Texas +121.
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Mariners at Brewers—Logan Gilbert to start for Seattle. Gilbert had 32 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 3.73 with WHIP of 1.08. The righthander started 32 games last season with an ERA of 3.73 and WHIP of 1.08. Gilbert struck out 24.5% with 4.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.4% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings. He opened 2023 facing Boston at home allowing one earned run with eight strikeouts in seven innings. Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta had 30 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran had a K rate of 30.9% with 7.9% walks. Grounders served at 41.7% with 1.41 home runs per nine innings. His season opener was at the Mets where he allowed one earned run with eight strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
Team record behind Gilbert 12-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 the past two seasons. Seattle bullpen has performed well as should hit better away from Seattle. Milwaukee is hitting only .230 at home. Play Seattle +112.
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/5/2024
Red Sox at Angels—Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford appeared in 31 games in 2023 with an ERA of 4.04 and WHIP of 1.11. The righthander struck out 25.6% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.9% with 4.04 home runs per nine innings. He faced Seattle on the road to open the season allowing no runs with seven strikeouts in six innings. Griffin Canning to start for Los Angeles. Canning had 24 appearances last year producing an ERA of 4.32 with WHIP of 1.24. The righty fanned 8.7% with 4.3% walks. Ground balls sat at 42.7% with 1.56 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Orioles on the road to open the year allowing five earned runs with seven hits in five innings.
The Pick:
Boston is 46-27 facing AL teams hitting .255 or worse the past two seasons with a +15.6-unit return. Los Angeles is 16-27 at home against winning teams the past two seasons with a -14.6-unit loss. They are also 31-56 facing teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower the past three seasons with a -25.5 unit loss. The Angels are hitting only .195 against righthanders and their bullpen has an ERA over five. Play Boston -103.