Free MLB Picks For Today 3/28/2024
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Angels at Orioles—Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles. Sandoval in 28 starts in 2023 carried an ERA of 4.11 and WHIP of 1.51. The lefthander saw his strikeouts plummet to 19.6% with walks way up to 11.3%. Ground balls sat at 46.6% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. Line drive rate way up over past two seasons. Angels closer is Carlos Estevez who saved 31 games with four blown saves. He posted a WHIP of 1.49 with a 27.8% strikeout mark. Sandoval was hammered in spring with an ERA of 7.15. Corbin Burnes to start for Baltimore. Burnes in 32 starts with Milwaukee last year had an ERA of 3.39 with WHIP of 1.07. The veteran struck out 25.5% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 44.1% with 1.02 home runs per nine innings. Craig Kimbrel is the Orioles closer who had an ERA of 3.26 and WHIP of 1.04 with Philadelphia last year. He had 23 saves last year with five blown saves.
The Pick: The Orioles have won five of six against the Angels. Sandoval is 19-8 to the over when a road underdog of +125 to +175. Over is 6-2 in their past eight meetings in Baltimore. Play Los Angeles and Baltimore over 7.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Pirates at Marlins—Mitch Keller to start for Pittsburgh. Keller had 32 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.25. The righthander fanned 25.5% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 43.7% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings. David Bednar is the closer and sat with an ERA of 2.00 with WHIP of 1.10 last season. Bednar had 39 saves with three blown saves. Jesus Luzardo to start for Miami. Luzardo has 32 starts in 2023 carrying an ERA of 3.58 and WHIP of 1.21. The lefty struck out 28.1% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Tanner Scott to close and finished with an ERA of 2.31 with WHIP of 0.99. He has made 12 saves with four blown saves.
The Pick:
Marlins have won four of five against the Pirates. Keller has seen a dramatic dip in his velocity in the spring. Luzardo has improved his control. Play Miami -130.
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Nationals at Reds—Josiah Gray to start for Washington. Gray had 30 starts last year producing an ERA of 3.91 with WHIP of 1.46. The righthander struck out 20.5% with 11.5% walks. Ground balls served at 37.8% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. His FIP was 4.93 which indicates a rising ERA based on form. Frankie Montas will start for Cincinnati. Montas missed 2023 with shoulder surgery and made one relief appearance. He has a career ERA of 3.90 with WHIP of 1.29 allowing 1.09 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Montas was roughed up in the spring. The team record behind Montas was 4-12 at home the past three seasons with -10 units. Nationals have won six of seven at Cincinnati. Washington +22.6 units the past two seasons on the road. Play Washington +130.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Blue Jays at Rays—Jose Berrios to start for Toronto. Berrios in 32 starts in 2023 carried and ERA of 3.65 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander struck out 23.5% with 6.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.6% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. Zach Eflin to start for Tampa Bay. Eflin started 31 games last year posting an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.02. The righty fanned 26.5% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 49.8% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Berrios faced the Rays twice last year surrendering two earned runs with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings. Eflin faced the Blue Jays once in 2023 allowing one earned run in seven innings. The under is 20-10 in Berrios past 30 starts. Play Toronto and Tampa Bay under 7.5.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Twins at Royals—Pablo Lopez to start for Minnesota. Lopez started 32 games last year dealing an ERA of 3.66 with WHIP of 1.15. The righthander struck out 29.2% with 6% walks. Grounders sat at 45.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Cole Ragans will start for Kansas City. Ragans appeared in 29 games in 2023 with an ERA of 3.47 and WHIP of 1.16. The second year lefty fanned 28.8% with 10.5%. Grounders served at 44% with 0.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The team record behind Lopez is 18-6 when favored by -100 to -150. KC at home is 9-21 when lined between +125 and -125. KC bullpen is always a concern. The Twins have won 22 of 33 against the Royals. Play Minnesota -122.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Tigers at White Sox—Tarik Skubal to start for Detroit. Skubal started 15 games last year dealing an ERA of 2.80 with WHIP of 0.90. The lefthander struck out 32.9% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 51.6% with limited home run damage. A FIP of 1.99. Garrett Crochet is the starter for Chicago. Crochet had 13 relief appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 3.55 and WHIP of 1.97. The lefty fanned 18.8% with 20.3% walks. Grounders served at 32.4% with 0.71 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The White Sox are 54-33 to the under when an underdog of +125 to +175. Detroit 83-56 to the under in day games. The under is 10-5 in their past 15 meetings in Chicago. Play Detroit and Chicago under 7.5.
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Yankees at Astros—Nestor Cortes to start for New York. Cortes had 12 starts last year dealing an ERA of 4.97 with WHIP of 1.25. The lefthander struck out 25.2% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 26.3% with 1.56 home runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will start for New York. Valdez in 31 starts in 2023 posted an ERA of 3.45 with WHIP of 1.13. The lefty struck out 24.8% with 7.1% walks. Grounders served at 54.2% with limited home run damage. Houston 14-27 with -22.2 units when lined at -100 to -150 at home. The team record behind Valdez 7-12 with -13.5 units when favored by -110 or higher at home. Play New York +130.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Giants at Padres—Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb had 33 starts last year posting an ERA of 3.25 with WHP of 1.07. The righthander struck out 22.8% with 3.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 62.1% with limited home run damage. Yu Darvish to start for San Diego. Darvish in 24 starts in 2023 carried an ERA of 4.56 and WHIP of 1.30. The veteran fanned 24.6% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls came in at 41.6% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Dodgers in Korea allowing no earned run with three strikeouts and three walks in 3 2/3rd innings. The team record behind Darvish 3-10 at home. Darvish in two starts against the Giants last year allowed eight earned runs in 12 innings. Webb past three starts against the Padres allowed two earned runs in 22 2/3rd innings. Play San Francisco -105.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Cardinals at Dodgers—Miles Mikolas to start for St Louis. Mikolas had 35 starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.78 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander struck out only 15.9% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 38.8% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings. His swinging strike out mark was only 7.6%. Tyler Glasnow to start for Los Angeles. Glasnow started 21 games last year producing an ERA of 3.53 with WHIP of 1.08. The veteran struck out 33.4% with 7.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 51.2% with limited home run damage. He faced the Padres in Korea allowing two earned runs with three strikeouts in five innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is 42-23 to the run line following a loss the past two seasons with a +23.7-unit return. Mikolas high contact is a concern against this Dodger lineup. Play Los Angeles on run line -1.5 runs at -117.
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Cubs at Rangers—Justin Steele starts for Chicago. Steele in 30 starts in 2023 carried an ERA of 3.06 with WHIP of 1.17. The lefthander fanned 24.6% with 5% walks. Ground balls sat at 49.4% with limited home run damage. Nathan Eovaldi to start for Texas. Eovaldi had 25 starts last year dealt an ERA of 3.63 with WHIP of 1.14. The righthander struck out 22.9% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 51% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
Cubs are 18-5 to the over against the American League. The Rangers are 26-12 to the over at home against left-handed starters. Play Chicago and Texas over 8.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Guardians at Athletics—Shane Bieber to start for Cleveland. Bieber started 21 times in 2023 carrying an ERA of 3.80 with WHIP of 1.23. The righthander struck out 20.2% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 47.2% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. His season was cut short with an elbow injury. Alex Wood to start for Oakland. Wood had 29 appearances last year posting an ERA of 4.33 with WHIP of 1.43. The lefthander saw his strikeouts plummet to 17.2% with 9.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 45% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
Oakland is 31-84 against righthanded starters with -29.7 units. Bieber 27-8 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Play Cleveland -153.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Red Sox at Mariners—Brayan Bello to start for Boston. Bello started 28 games last season dealing an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander fanned 19.8% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 56.2% with 1.38 home runs per nine innings. Luis Castillo to start for Seattle. Castillo had 33 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 3.34 and WHIP of 1.10. The veteran struck out 27.3% with 7% walks. Ground balls came in at 38.9% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The team record for Boston is 10-5 as an underdog of +150 or greater with a +11-unit return. Team record behind Castillo 23-30 with -22.1 units as a -125 to -175 favorite. Play Boston +152.
Colorado vs. Arizona MLB Betting Pick Prediction 3/28/2024
Colorado at Arizona—Kyle Freeland to start for Colorado. Freeland in 29 starts in 2023 delivered an ERA of 5.03 with WHIP of 1.47. The lefthander struck out 13.7% with 13.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 40% with 1.68 home runs per nine innings. Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen had 34 starts a season ago posting an ERA of 3.47 with WHIP of 1.12. The righthander struck out 26% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls came in at 41.8% with limited home run damage.
The Pick: Freeland had a good spring. He is 24-8 to the under as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Arizona is 37-20 to the under. Their bullpen performed well late last season into the playoffs. Play Colorado and Arizona under 8.5.