Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev 3/2/24 – As UFC Fight Night 238 approaches, the heavyweight division is set to witness an electrifying showdown between Jairzinho “BIGI BOY” Rozenstruik and the undefeated Shamil Gaziev at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. With Rozenstruik standing at a record of 13-5-0 and Gaziev at an impeccable 12-0-0, this fight promises to be a critical juncture in the careers of both fighters. As the fight night draws near, multi-handicapper tips and picks are leaning towards a highly contested bout, indicating the importance of understanding the fighters’ backgrounds, styles, and potential game plans to make an informed betting decision.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Game Info
| When: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 4:00 PM ET |
| Where: | UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik Analysis
Jairzinho Rozenstruik enters this marquee matchup with a professional record of 13 wins and 5 losses. Digging deeper into his statistical profile, Rozenstruik has impressively finished 10 of those 13 wins by way of devastating KO/TKO thanks to his fight-ending power. He will certainly be looking to add another stoppage victory on Saturday night.
In terms of output, “Bigi Boy” lands a very solid 2.81 significant strikes per minute, which should allow him to out-volume many opponents over the course of a fight. He throws with 45% striking accuracy as well. Defensively though, Rozenstruik tends to get hit more than he would like, absorbing 3.15 significant strikes per minute from opponents. His defensive striking rate sits at a rather pedestrian 45% through 18 professional contests.
While possessing scary power in his hands, Rozenstruik does not actively work to take fights to the mat. In fact, he averages 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the Octagon. Takedown defense tells a better story for Jairzinho, rating at a respectable 73% thus far into his UFC run. At age 35 though, Rozenstruik finds himself needing an impressive win here to firm up his ranking at heavyweight. Utilizing his proven finishing power presents his clearest path to victory against the undefeated Gaziev.
Shamil Gaziev Analysis
Emerging Russian prospect Shamil Gaziev enters the UFC octagon for the first time on Saturday boasting an unblemished 12 fight record including 11 finishes. Training under respected coach Javier Mendez of AKA, Gaziev has quickly developed a lethal skill set built on striking power and grappling efficiency.
Thus far into his fight career, Gaziev has needed just over 4 minutes on average to dispatch his opponents, including 6 consecutive 1st round stoppages leading up to UFC debut. The statistics indicate Gaziev is an offensive juggernaut, landing 6.19 significant strikes per minute while limiting opponents to less than 1 significant strike per minute at only 0.93. His striking defense rating sits at a sterling 60% accuracy.
Beyond his precise, high-volume striking, Gaziev also possesses underrated grappling ability. While opting to strike early and often, his 1.8 submissions per 15 minutes showcase an eagerness to finish fights both on the feet and mat. Gaziev also maintains flawless takedown defense at 100% through 12 professional bouts. At 34 years of age, the Russian hits his athletic prime with a maturity to match his finishing instincts. A statement win over Rozenstruik would quickly insert Gaziev as a dangerous new contender at heavyweight.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Stats
| Rozenstruik | Gaziev | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 13-5-0 | 12-0-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 7:39 | 4:17 |
| Height | 6′ 2″ | 6′ 4″ |
| Weight | 242 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach | 78″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 2.81 | 6.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 51% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.15 | 0.93 |
| Defense | 45% | 60% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0% | 0% |
| Takedown Defense | 73% | 100% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.0 | 1.8 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev 3/2/24 Betting Picks
This matchup shapes up as a pick’em fight according to oddsmakers, with both strikers possessing one-punch knockout ability. Rozenstruik opened as a small -175 favorite, but that line has moved towards a pick’em with Gaziev now at +130. Clearly, respected money is coming in on the underdog ahead of his UFC debut. Rozenstruik certainly has the experience edge which makes him a live dog here. But Gaziev’s power and grappling prowess make him the rightful favorite if he fights up to his potential.
In the end, Gaziev’s undefeated record and finishing ability make him the better bet in this striker vs striker matchup. Rozenstruik has struggled in recent fights when unable to earn a quick KO. Meanwhile, Gaziev possesses more ways to finish on the feet or ground. The unknown factor surrounding Gaziev is the only reason this line remains closed. But expect an impressive debut for the Russian prospect.
Free Pick: Shamil Gaziev +130
Gaziev’s blend of knockout power and grappling gives him an edge in versatility over Rozenstruik. Bet the rising undefeated contender to make a statement and remain perfect in his UFC debut. For the latest UFC free insight for this weekend’s fights, be sure to check our handicappers’ updated predictions and analysis. With two dangerous strikers possessing raw power, this Fight Night main event promises fireworks. Gaziev gets the slight nod from our experts, but Rozenstruik’s one-punch power means no result would be surprising. Tune into ESPN+ on Saturday night for the showdown.