Free MLB Picks For Today 5/7/2024
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Rangers at Athletics—Jack Leiter expected to start for Texas. In his MLB debut he allowed seven earned runs with three walks in 3 2/3rd innings at Detroit. A first-round pick in 2021 out of Vanderbilt who struggled in 2022 and 2023 in the minor leagues. In Triple A this year he allowed eight earned runs with 37 strikeouts in 25 1/3rd innings. Ross Stripling to start for Texas. Stripling has seven starts on the campaign posting an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.34. The veteran has seen his strikeouts drop to 15.8% with 4.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 38.1% with 0.67 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Stripling’s numbers at home have been better with an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.18. Their bullpen has performed well at home. As this series began the past seven games the Athletics were hitting .272 and putting up 6.7 runs per game. Texas bullpen ERA in their first 16 on the road is an ERA of 6.45. Play Oakland.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Tigers at Guardians—Kenta Maeda to start for Detroit. Maeda has six starts with an ERA of 5.02 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander has his strikeouts plummet to 18.3% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 40.4% with 2.51 home runs per nine innings. Logan Allen to start for Cleveland. Allen in seven starts on the year deals an ERA of 5.11 with WHIP of 1.41. The lefthander fans 19.4% with 7.5% walks. Grounders sit at 44.3% with 1.70 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Maeda in his past two starts allowed one earned run in 11 innings. Cleveland bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.09. The Tigers on the road have a bullpen ERA of 2.56. The Tigers are hitting .221 on the road. Cleveland is now 40-16 to the under against the division and 36-18 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Play Detroit and Cleveland under 8.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Diamondbacks at Reds—Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen has six starts on the campaign producing an ERA of 3.38 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander has a K rate of 26.3% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls served at 42% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings. Frankie Montas to start for Cincinnati. Montas in five starts posts an ERA of 4.19 with WHIP of 1.45. Righty fans 16.7% with 11.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 43.1% with 1.40 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cincinnati in their past seven games is batting .167 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks on the road are putting up 4.7 runs per game. The team record behind Montas is 3-12 when lined at +125 to -125 the past three seasons with a -9.8-unit loss. Play Arizona -121.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Blue Jays at Phillies—Jose Berrios to start for Toronto. Berrios in seven starts carries an ERA of 1.44 with WHIP of 1.01. The veteran strikes out 18.3% with 7.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 47.1% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.02 does suggest a rising ERA based on his numbers. Cristopher Sanchez to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez has six starts with an ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.53. The lefthander has a K rate of 22% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls served at 62.2% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Blue Jays are batting .212 on the road. Philadelphia has won 17 of 22 against right-handed starters as they hit .265 and put up 6.4 runs per game. The Phillies are 27-12 when lined at home by -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a +11.7-unit return. The Blue Jays are 1-8 facing a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 home runs per start of fewer this season. Philadelphia is 47-13 when facing a team getting outscored by 1 run per game or greater the past three seasons with a +25.3-unit return. Play Philadelphia -136.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Angels at Pirates—Patrick Sandoval to start for Los Angeles. Sandoval has seven starts on the season dealing an ERA of 5.91 with WHIP of 1.69. The lefthander fans 25.7% with 10.8% walks. Grounders sit at 47.3% with 0.56 home runs per nine innings. Quinn Priester to start for Pittsburgh. Priester in three starts has an ERA of 3.31 with WHIP of 1.29. The second year righty strikes out 15.5% with 8.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 68.5% with 2.76 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Pittsburgh as this series opened were hitting .164 in their past seven games putting up 1.9 runs per game. The Pirates bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.25. In this seven game period the Angels are putting up 3.6 runs per game. Pittsburgh is 11-5 to the under at home and 19-9 to the under facing a team that average seven or greater strikeouts per game. Play Los Angeles and Pittsburgh under 8.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Orioles at Nationals—Corbin Burnes to start for Baltimore. Burnes in seven starts on the year carries an ERA of 2.61 with WHIP of 0.92. The veteran is striking out 25.8% with 5.7% walks. Grounders served at 48.1% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.70 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Trevor Williams to start for Washington. Williams has six starts posting an ERA of 2.27 with WHIP of 1.17. The righty fabs 17.7% with 9.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 48.9% with no homers allowed.
The Pick:
The Past seven games the Nationals are putting up 4.6 runs per game. In this period the Orioles are batting .226. Washington is 52-60 when lined at +150 or greater with a +38.8 unit return with a +38.8 unit return. The team record behind Williams is 18-16 facing teams that average seven strikeouts per game or greater the past two seasons with a +13 unit return. Play Washington +182.
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
White Sox at Rays—Michael Soroka to start for Chicago. Soroka has seven starts on the campaign carrying an ERA of 6.48 with WHIP of 1.62. The righthander is striking out only 10.6% with 12.6% walks. Ground balls served at 47.8% with 1.89 home runs per nine innings. Zach Eflin to start for Tampa Bay. Eflin in seven starts has an ERA of 4.17 with WHIP of 1.17. The veteran fans 21.1% with 2.3% walks. Grounders dished at 42.6% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The White Sox are batting .206 on the road, averaging 2.8 runs per game. The Rays have shown run production the past four games putting up a total of 28 runs. Play Tampa Bay on run line -1.5 runs at -118.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Astros at Yankees—Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander in three starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 2.08 with WHIP of 1.15. The veteran strikes out 19.1% with 10.3% walks. Grounders come in at 31.9% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.36 suggests a rise in ERA if his numbers don’t improve. Luis Gil to start for New York. Gil has six starts in the year with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.19. The righthander has a K rate of 30.8% with 15.4% walks. Grounders dished at 36.8% with 0.58 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The New York bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.18. New York is batting only .214 in their past seven games putting up 2.6 runs per game. Verlander is 14-4 to the under pitching on 5-6 days of rest the past three seasons and 28-9 to the under facing a team hitting .255 or worse the past three seasons. New York is 37-24 to the under facing a team getting outscored by 0.5 runs per game or more the past two seasons. Play Houston and New York under 8.
PART 2
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Red Sox at Braves—Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford in seven starts posts an ERA of 1.56 with WHIP of 1.07. The righthander is striking out 24.2% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls served at 36.1% with minimal home run damage. Reynaldo Lopez to start for Atlanta. Lopez has five starts with an ERA of 1.50 with WHIP of 1.00. The righty fans 27% with 8.7% walks. Grounders served at 42.5% with 0.60 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Boston bullpen on the road has an ERA of 1.80 in their nineteen games. They are hitting .259 against righthanders putting up 5.1 runs per game. The Braves in their past seven games are hitting .180 and putting up 2.6 runs per game. Boston is 11-6 as an underdog of +150 or greater the past two seasons with a +11.7-unit return. Play Boston +156.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Brewers at Royals—Colin Rea to start for Milwaukee. Rea in six starts produces an ERA of 2.67 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander fans 16% with 7.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.3% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings. Seth Lugo to start for Kansas City. Lugo in seven starts produces an ERA of 1.60 with WHIP of 1.02. The veteran has seen his K rate drop to 17.6% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 41.4% with 0.60 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.42 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
The Royals bullpen in their home games has an ERA of 3.15 with the Brewers on the road an ERA of 2.61. KC is batting .192 against the National League. Milwaukee in their past seven games is hitting .207 and only .219 in night games. Kansas City is 8-1 to the under when favored by -110 or higher this season and 19-9 to the under facing teams that average seven or greater strikeouts per game. Play Milwaukee and Kansas City under 8.5.
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Mariners at Twins—Emerson Hancock to start for Seattle. Hancock in six starts in 2024 carries an ERA of 4.75 with WHIP of 1.29. The righthander strikes out 17.6% with 6.9% walks. Grounders dished at 34.4% with 1.48 home runs per nine innings. Bailey Ober to start for Minnesota. Ober has six starts with an ERA of 4.55 with WHIP of 1.04. The righty fans 222.4% with 5.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 31.1% with 1.14 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Minnesota is hitting .229 at home where they put up just 3.6 runs per game. The Mariners bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.25. They are 36-20 facing an AL team on the road with an OBP of .330 or lower the past two seasons. Play Seattle +120.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Padres at Cubs—Randy Vasquez to start for San Diego. Vasquez in his two starts on the year allowed five earned runs with two homers and five strikeouts in 7 2/3rd innings. He started the year in Triple A posting an ERA of 8.40 with WHIP of 1.87 with three homers and six walks in 15 innings. He worked in 11 games with the Yankees last year posting an ERA of 2.87 with WHIP of 1.27 with five homers and 18 walks in 37 2/3rd innings. Shota Imanaga to start for Chicago. Imanaga has six starts with an ERA of 0.78 with WHIP of 0.75. The lefthander is striking out 26.5% with 3% walks. Ground balls dished at 38% with 0.52 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Chicago in their past seven games is hitting .212. The Padres have struggled to hit and score on left-handed starters. San Diego is 9-0 to the under facing an NL pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower the past two seasons. They are 15-4 to the under facing an NL starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower the past two seasons. Play San Diego and Chicago under 8.5.
New York Mets vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Mets at Cardinals—Jose Butto to start for New York. Butto in five starts displays an ERA of 2.57 with WHIP of 1.07. The righthander is striking out 27.4% with 12.4% walks. Ground balls served at 40% with 0.64 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.67 does suggest a rise in ERA if his numbers don’t improve. Miles Mikolas will start for St Louis. Mikolas has seven starts with an ERA of 5.68 with WHIP of 1.39. The veteran fans 17.7% with 4.3% walks. Grounders dished at 39.5% with 1.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
St Louis is batting .202 at home where they have lost 10 of 16. The Mets on the road are hitting .262 and putting up 5.4 runs per game. St Louis is 25-37 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the past two seasons with a -30.6-unit loss. The team record behind Mikolas 2-8 when working on 5-6 days rest the past two seasons with a -8.5-unit loss. Play New York +103.
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Giants at Rockies—Kyle Harrison in seven starts posts in 2024 an ERA of 3.79 with WHIP of 1.29. The lefthander is striking out 23.9% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls served at 38.9% with 1.18 home runs per nine innings. Dakota Hudson to start for Colorado. Hudson has six starts with an ERA of 5.93 with WHIP of 1.68. The righthander fans 12.8% with 12.1% walks. Ground balls served at 56.3% with 0.89 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
San Francisco in their past seven games is hitting .200 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The Rockies hit better at home. The Giants bullpen on the road has an ERA of 4.74 in their 20 games losing 14. The team record behind Hudson at home is 31-12 with a +18.2-unit return. The Rockies are 46-55 as a home underdog of +125 or higher the past three seasons with a +17.9-unit return. Play Colorado +141.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/7/2024
Marlins at Dodgers—Edward Cabrera to start for Miami. Cabrera in four starts on the year delivers an ERA of 6.05 with WHIP of 1.50. The righthander is striking out 35.3% with 11.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 54.5% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 2.92 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to start for Los Angeles. Yamamoto has seven starts with an ERA of 2.91 with WHIP of 1.09. The righty has a K rate of 30% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.7% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is hitting .287 against righthanders and putting up 6.1 runs per game against them. The Marlins in their past seven games have seen improvement in hitting and runs scored. Los Angeles is 12-4 to the over when favored at home by -150 or greater this season. They are 11-2 to the over when the total is lined at home between 7 and 8.5. Los Angeles is 27-14 to the over facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher the past two seasons. Play Los Angeles and Miami over 7.5.