Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2/24/24 UFC FIGHT NIGHT 237 – As the UFC heads to Mexico City for UFC FIGHT NIGHT 237, fans are gearing up for a featherweight showdown that’s sure to captivate. Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez takes on Brian “T-City” Ortega in a battle that has all the makings of a classic. Both fighters bring impressive records to the Octagon, with Rodriguez holding a 16-4-0 (1 NC) record and Ortega not far behind at 15-3-0 (1 NC). This matchup is one of the most anticipated on the card, and for those looking for the best free UFC predictions, this bout offers a fascinating study in contrast.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2/24/24 UFC FIGHT NIGHT 237 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, February 24, 2024, at 10:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Federal District, Mexico |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez Analysis
Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez brings an unpredictable stand-up arsenal and well-rounded skill set into his rematch with Ortega. Rodriguez boasts a 4.63 significant strike rate, landing with 46% accuracy, while absorbing a respectable 4.07 per minute. The creative Muay Thai striker keeps opponents off balance with spinning kicks, elbows, and flying knees from odd angles. His height and whopping 7-inch reach advantages aid in maintaining distance too.
Although not known for his wrestling, he completes takedowns with 28% efficiency. More impressively, his takedown defense at 59% will be tested against Ortega’s grappling attack. Still, Rodriguez has the footwork and cage IQ to stay on his feet in most exchanges. However, the stats expose some vulnerability in the later rounds. In championship fights, Rodriguez’s output slowed noticeably – a pattern Ortega will aim to capitalize on.
The Mexican icon can crack under pressure inside the home country Octagon. Look for Rodriguez to bank early rounds attacking but remain wary not to play into Ortega’s strengths on the ground. Over aggression will spell doom. If fatigued in the 4th and 5th frames, Rodriguez must stay elusive, deny takedowns, and shift into a defensive counter striking game. His output, durability, and better footwork are sharp advantages, but finishing the fight looks unlikely. The path to victory rests on avoiding grappling for 25 minutes and running up the scorecards.
Brian “T-City” Ortega Analysis
Brian Ortega, or “T-City” steadily applied pressure behind a 4.19 significant strike rate with improving 38% accuracy. More impressively, his submission savant rate of 1.2 per 15 minutes creates dangers everywhere. An opportunistic Ortega only needs one takedown or vulnerable sequence from Rodriguez to exploit.
Against elite competition, Ortega’s striking defense remains a work in progress, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. The iron-chinned wrestler has only been stopped once however. On the mat Ortega flows seamlessly from front head locks to omo plata attempts if given space. And even off his back the grappling ace transitions to triangles, arm locks and more.
To defeat Yair for a second straight time Ortega must limit prolonged exchanges on the feet. He will thrive if Rodriguez plays into his strengths by shooting for takedowns. A smart Ortega will feint level changes to react accordingly. Covering distance behind leg kicks and securing a body lock to the floor is a necessity. Dragging this fight into the trenches could spell a submission victory. However Ortega’s 23% takedown accuracy suggests hunting for dominant positions will prove no easy task.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Stats
| Rodriguez | Ortega | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 16-4-0 (1 NC) | 15-3-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 13:16 | 12:57 |
| Height | 5′ 11″ | 5′ 8″ |
| Weight | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach | 71″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 4.63 | 4.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46% | 38% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 4.07 | 6.66 |
| Defense | 51% | 49% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.73 | 0.95 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 28% | 23% |
| Takedown Defense | 59% | 56% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Betting Picks
This is shaping up to be an absolute war with both men possessing paths to victory. Rodriguez will likely have to weather an early grappling storm and begin finding his range late in the fight after Ortega slows. Ortega can end the fight at any time on the mat but has to be defensive-minded early against such a lethal and diverse striker.
Yair Rodriguez’s moneyline is set at an understandably short -160 favorite in his home country. Ortega presents a decent value as a live underdog at +140 but ultimately this comes down to whether or not he can get takedowns.
Free Pick: Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez (-160)
In the end, expect Rodriguez to outwork Ortega in a back-and-forth battle to earn a close decision. However, don’t sleep on Ortega’s chances to catch lightning in a bottle with a submission from his back at any time. Both men still have the skills to compete for UFC gold. Be sure to check out all the handicapper’s favorite picks for your best shot at cashing winning tickets this weekend.