Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons 12/24/23

Colts vs. Falcons 12/24/23 NFL Week 16 Latest Picks, Odds, and Forecast

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)


Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons 12/24/23 – In the NFL Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts, holding an 8-6 record, are set to face the Atlanta Falcons with a 6-8 standing. This intriguing match-up on Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, is a crucial game for both teams, with the Colts looking to solidify their playoff hopes and the Falcons aiming to upset their plans. Fans seeking NFL daily free picks will find this game particularly interesting due to the close matchup in team capabilities.


The Colts have displayed an effective offensive attack this season. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has excelled at passing, completing 63% of his attempts for 2739 yards; Michael Pittman Jr. has become an essential target, collecting 99 catches for 1062 yards; while running back Zack Moss has provided reliable ground coverage by covering 764 yards on 177 attempts; this multifaceted offense has been essential in their success this season.


Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has had an above average season, completing 63% of his passes for 2528 yards at a 63.3% completion rate. Bijan Robinson has stood out, amassing 801 rushing yards on just 176 carries and amassing an incredible 801 total on 801 attempts! Drake London led their receiving corps with 58 receptions for 769 yards but has yet to fully capitalize on its opportunities.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Info


When: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Stream: NFL Game Pass


Gardner Minshew QB vs. Desmond Ridder QB


Gardner Minshew brings a well-traveled veteran presence, having previously led the Jaguars as a starter and also spending time with the Eagles. Now on his third franchise in five seasons, Minshew provides leadership, accuracy, and ball security that helps drive the Colts’ balanced offensive attack. While lacking high-end physical traits like arm strength or mobility, Minshew thrives thanks to his decision-making, timing, and quick release. He has posted a solid 14-8 TD-INT ratio this season while completing 63.3% of his passes with a respectable 86.2 passer rating. Minshew minimizes risks and mistakes, allowing Indianapolis’ playmakers to operate effectively while trusting his protection. His veteran savvy and quick processing of defenses remain integral to the Colts’ playoff push.


Desmond Ridder possesses alluring athletic upside coupled with the expected growing pains of a rookie passer. Transitioning from the wide-open college game, Ridder must adjust to complex NFL defenses that compel quicker decisions and tighter-window throws. While flashes of playmaking ability have emerged, issues taking sacks along with 10 interceptions during his 13 games played underline areas needing improvement. Backed by a strong ground game and emerging young weapon in Drake London, Ridder can thrive if Atlantas offense operates with balance. But the burden remains heavy on a first-year signal caller undergoing vital development before becoming a consistent, reliable centerpiece. Minimizing miscues against the Colts’ opportunistic defense stands paramount towards an upset victory.


NFL Odds/Point Spread: Indianapolis Colts -130, Total Odds: 43.5


The Colts are slight favorites with a -130 moneyline and a spread of -1.5, indicating a close contest. The total of 43.5 points suggests expectations of a moderately high-scoring game, reflecting the offensive capabilities of both teams.


Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends


The Colts are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 6 games. The total has also gone OVER 4 times over their past 5 matchups. When playing on the road, the total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 11 road contests. They have also owned the Falcons historically, with a 15-2 straight up record over the past 17 head-to-head matchups.


Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends


Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled to meet betting expectations, covering the spread just 3 times over their past 13 games. The total has gone UNDER in 14 of their last 20 games as well, reflective of offensive difficulties. At home this season, the Falcons have been particularly bad, covering just once in their past 6 home contests. Historically, Atlanta has also badly struggled against Indianapolis, going 1-8 straight up in their last 9 home games against the Colts.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons 12/24/23 Betting Picks


Based on the analysis and trends, the Colts seem to have the upper hand, especially considering their recent form and ATS performance. However, the Falcons’ home-field advantage and tendency for close games should not be overlooked.


The Colts might be the safer bet to win, but the Falcons could cover the spread, especially considering their desperation to salvage their season. As for the total, leaning towards the OVER might be wise, given the Colts’ recent scoring trends. Consider backing the surging Colts ATS as favorites for some of the top NFL daily free picks available for this Week 16 contest. 


Free Pick and Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 24, Atlanta Falcons 21


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