Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski 12/16/23 – Casey “King” O’Neill and Ariane “Queen of Violence” Lipski will deliver one of the main events at UFC 296 with their Women’s Flyweight bout, sure to be an electrifying encounter, while pro handicapping experts analyze every detail closely – leaving combat sports fans buzzing with predictions and analyses of this encounter between two elite fighters who boast 9-1-0 and 16-8-0 records respectively. Set against an electric atmosphere, UFC 296 promises to offer an entertaining bout that pits technical prowess against sheer willpower as it plays out.
Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski 12/16/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET |
| Where: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Casey “King” O’Neill Analysis
Casey O’Neill burst onto the UFC scene and immediately made an impact with three straight submission wins. O’Neill suffered the first loss of her career against ranked flyweight contender Taila Santos via decision. O’Neill has all the skills to regain her momentum against Lipski. She lands nearly 9 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, while only absorbing 6 shots per minute thanks to her 58% striking defense rate. O’Neill mixes up her striking attack by targeting both the head and body. She throws crisp punching combinations and sneaky head kicks to back up opponents.
O’Neill dominates by securing 2 takedowns per round at a 42% clip. From there, she attempts a submission nearly once per frame and often ends fights early. O’Neill utilizes vicious ground and pound, elite BJJ, and an aggressive style to break opponents both physically and mentally. Her three UFC wins have all come via rear naked choke as she ruthless hunts for the finish. O’Neill has a killer instinct and advanced grappling technique that allows her to capitalize on the smallest mistakes. She constantly looks for back takes and dominant positions to set up her submissions.
O’Neill won’t be content to cruise to decision victories. She has finished 8 of her 9 professional wins with her slick ground game. The key for O’Neill will be implementing takedowns early and often against Lipski. If she gains top control, a submission could quickly follow. However, O’Neill has had a full camp to sharpen her skills and will be highly motivated to deliver an impressive showing in this co-main event slot. Expect her pace, pressure and submission skills to carry the day.
Ariane “Queen of Violence” Lipski Analysis
Ariane Lipski also enters UFC 296 hungry to continue rebuilding momentum after a rocky start inside the octagon. Lipski has won back-to-back contests, including her most recent victory over Gatto and Aldrich. That win showcased Lipski’s dangerous Muay Thai arsenal as she battered with punishing strikes to earn the second-round stoppage. Overall, Lipski lands nearly 4 significant strikes per minute with 39% accuracy. She couples that offense with solid striking defense, avoiding 51% of shots fired back her way. Lipski uses footwork and head movement to frustrate opponents standing.
She throws lethal combinations ending with damaging knees and kicks to chop down foes. Lipski also attacks the body effectively, sapping her enemy’s cardio and strength over time. Once she smells blood, Lipski turns up the heat hunting for fight-ending TKOs. Lipski doesn’t shoot for many takedowns, but has strong 78% takedown defense to keep fights standing. She trains full-time at American Top Team to sharpen her grappling and takedown defense. Lipski prefers striking battles where her technical Muay Thai shines.
O’Neill elite ground game and figures to be at a disadvantage if this fight goes horizontal. Avoiding takedowns and keeping her back off the canvas is key to Lipski’s success. If Lipski can sprawl effectively and force exchanges on the feet, she possesses true one-strike knockout power. Her dynamic arsenal could prove too much for O’Neill over 15 minutes. Lipski must avoid spending long stretches on the bottom eating ground and pound or hunting submissions off her back.
Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Stats
| O’Neill | Lipski | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 9-1-0 | 16-8-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:16 | 11:09 |
| Height | 5′ 6″ | 5′ 6″ |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 69″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 8.77 | 3.94 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55% | 39% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 5.90 | 4.20 |
| Defense | 58% | 51% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 1.96 | 0.54 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 42% | 50% |
| Takedown Defense | 71% | 78% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Betting Pick
Considering the statistical analysis and recent performances, our pick for the upcoming bout at UFC 296 is Casey O’Neill. Despite her recent loss, O’Neill’s aggressive striking and superior grappling skills seem to give her an edge over Lipski. O’Neill’s ability to land more significant strikes per minute and her higher takedown accuracy could be the determining factors in this matchup. Furthermore, her youth and potential for rapid improvement since her last fight make her a promising choice for bettors and fans alike.
Free Pick: Casey “King” O’Neill -220
Today’s free MMA tips lean towards Casey O’Neill as the favorite in this intriguing matchup against Ariane Lipski. While both fighters have their strengths and have shown great skill in their careers, O’Neill’s aggressive approach and superior grappling statistics position her as the likely victor in this bout. As always, the unpredictability of MMA means anything can happen, but the data and recent form suggest O’Neill holds the advantage going into UFC 296