Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-10)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots 12/17/23 – As the NFL progresses into Week 15, the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots is poised to be an intriguing one, especially for those seeking NFL free picks today. The Chiefs, boasting a respectable 8-5 record, are set to face the Patriots, who have struggled this season with a record of 3-10. This game promises to be a critical juncture for both teams. The Chiefs aim to solidify their playoff positioning, while the Patriots look to salvage some pride in a disappointing season.
Kansas City boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is completing 66.9% of his passes for 3,398 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while adding another 328 rushing yards. His top receiving weapon is Rashee Rice, who has 663 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. On the ground, rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has emerged with 779 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per carry.
The Patriots offense has struggled mightily, especially in the passing game. Second-year quarterback Mac Jones has taken a step back, throwing for only 2,120 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 64.9% of his passes for just 6.1 yards per attempt. His top receiving option is Demario Douglas, who has just 410 receiving yards in 10 games. The running game has been decent behind Rhamondre Stevenson’s 619 yards, but not nearly good enough to compensate for the lackluster passing attack.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Game Info
| When: | Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Gillette Stadium |
| TV: | FOX |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
Patrick Mahomes QB vs. Mac Jones QB
Patrick Mahomes is putting together another MVP-caliber campaign in his sixth NFL season. He continues to show why he is one of the most talented and dangerous quarterbacks in the league with his combination of elite arm strength, pinpoint accuracy, and improvisational playmaking ability. Mahomes excels at keeping plays alive with his mobility, allowing receivers time to uncover downfield. He also has an innate feel for pressure and can deliver throws from platform and arm angles that other quarterbacks wouldn’t even attempt. Although he already has 23 touchdown passes, Mahomes has also committed an uncharacteristic 11 interceptions so far.
Mac Jones has disappointingly taken a clear step backward in his development. He looks increasingly uncomfortable and indecisive running the New England offense. Jones’ processing speed appears slower, frequently holding onto the ball too long and failing to anticipate open receivers. This has led to inaccurate passes and an abysmal 12 interceptions compared to only 10 touchdown throws. He is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and has only surpassed 300 yards once all year. His 77.0 quarterback rating ranks 25th out of 32 qualified passers.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -500, Total Odds: 38.5
The betting odds are heavily skewed in favor of the Chiefs, with a -11.5 spread suggesting a strong belief in their ability to win by a significant margin. The total odds set at 38.5, with an over/under that hints at a game not expected to be a high-scoring affair.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
Kansas City has failed to cover in four of its last six games but has still found ways to win, going 15-5 straight up in its last 20 contests. Notably, the Chiefs are 8-2 straight up on the road this season, though they have struggled when visiting New England, going just 2-7 straight up in their last nine road matchups versus the Patriots.
New England Patriots Betting Trends
It’s been a rough year betting on or against New England, with the Patriots going just 1-5 against the spread and straight up in their last six games. New England is also a terrible 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 home games. However, the Patriots are 7-2 straight up in their last nine home games against the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots 12/17/23 Betting Picks
In concluding, the Chiefs, with their explosive offense led by Mahomes, appear to be the safer bet. Their ability to consistently put points on the board, combined with the Patriots’ lackluster season, makes Kansas City a strong favorite. However, the Patriots’ historical home advantage against the Chiefs should not be entirely discounted.
For the better pick, Kansas City seems to be the more prudent choice. The spread of -11.5 is a large margin, but the Chiefs have the offensive firepower to cover it. As for prop bets and over/under, considering the Patriots’ offensive struggles and the Chiefs’ ability to score, taking the under might be the wiser choice, aligning with the Handicapper best picks.
Free Pick and Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 28, New England Patriots 14