Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa 12-9-23

Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12/9/23 UFC FIGHT NIGHT 233 Game Forecast, Predictions, and Analysis

Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12/9/23 – The stage is set for an electrifying lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 233 on December 9, 2023. Fight will features an intriguing lightweight matchup between Steve Garcia and Melquizael Costa. This MMA free expert analysis will break down the stats and performances of both fighters to predict who has the edge to get their hand raised in this battle between gritty veterans.


Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12/9/23 Game Info


When: Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States


Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia Analysis


Steve Garcia has compiled a solid 14-5 record by utilizing stellar takedown defense (94%) and pinpoint counter striking. Throwing just 4.85 strikes per minute, Garcia is efficient and accurate, landing 56% of his attempts. His striking defense is also superb, avoiding nearly half (46%) of incoming shots, while only absorbing 2.61 strikes per minute. Garcia couples this slick defense with power, holding 6 knockout wins in his 14 victories. 


In his last fight, Garcia defeated Nuerdanbieke via unanimous decision by stuffing takedowns and scoring on the feet. While Garcia doesn’t attempt many takedowns himself (1.51 per 15 minutes), he can win fights with his crisp boxing and ability to keep bouts standing.


At 6’0″ with a 75″ reach, Garcia uses his length well to score from the outside. Training with Team Alpha Male, he should have excellent preparation for this bout. Garcia does have 5 losses, typically coming against strong grapplers who can take him down. But his defense and counter skills make him a tough outing for any opponent.


Melquizael “Melk Cauthy” Costa Analysis


Melquizael Costa comes into this matchup boasting a 20-6 record and very well-rounded skills. Landing 5.11 strikes per minute with decent accuracy (45%), Costa brings high volume offense, always applying pressure. His striking defense is also excellent, avoiding 64% of shots, while only absorbing 2.53 strikes per minute. On the mat, Costa has a very active submission game, averaging 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes. While he only lands 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, his 42% takedown defense allows opponents to plant him on the canvas. From his back, Costa turns to his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, owning 13 submission wins.


In his last fight, Costa defeated Lingo via a rare omoplata submission in Round 1. This victory demonstrates Costa’s dangerous ground skills. However, Lingo did succeed with 2 of 5 takedown attempts in the brief fight. At 5’10’ with just a 71″ reach, Costa could be at a length disadvantage against the taller Garcia. He will need to get inside the pocket and work takedowns to avoid Garcia’s rangy striking. Training with Brazilian Top Team, Costa should have the ground game to trouble most opponents. But Garcia has shown excellent defense against takedowns in the past.


Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa Stats


Garcia Costa
Wins/Losses/Draws 14-5-0 20-6-0
Average Fight Time 5:41 12:03
Height 6′ 0″ 5′ 10″
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 75″ 71″
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Strikes Landed per Min. 4.85 5.11
Striking Accuracy 56% 45%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.61 2.53
Defense 46% 64%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 1.51 1.87
Takedown Accuracy 44% 37%
Takedown Defense 94% 42%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.4 0.6


Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa Betting Pick


Garcia stands out with his striking accuracy and significant reach advantage; his high takedown defense rate suggests he could keep the fight standing, where his most effective form lies. Costa presents an interesting challenge; with higher strike rate and better overall defense he poses a formidable opponent; yet our pick goes to Steve Garcia due to his reach advantage coupled with striking accuracy, takedown defense ability, ability to control pace effectively while exploiting reach advantage – qualities essential in facing off against someone like Costa.


Free Pick: Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia ML


In conclusion, this lightweight bout between Steve Garcia and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night 233 is set to be a compelling contest. Garcia’s reach, striking precision, and defensive grappling make him the favored contender in this analysis. This fight analysis aligns with handicappers reviews, which often emphasize the importance of reach and striking accuracy in lightweight bouts. While Costa’s resilience and defensive skills are noteworthy, Garcia’s overall skill set and recent form suggest he is well-positioned to secure a victory in this exciting matchup.


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