New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23 NCAAF Week 14 Analysis, Best Picks, and Forecast

New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) vs. Liberty Flames (12-0)


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23 – The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) clash with the undefeated Liberty Flames (12-0) in a late-season showdown between two Independent FBS programs. With bowl positioning and conference bragging rights on the line, expect both teams to empty the tanks in this Friday night tilt. Grab this exclusive cost-free NCAAF tip before the books catch up.


Riding a scorching 8-0 straight up run, New Mexico State has finally put it all together under third-year coach Jerry Kill. Dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has been phenomenal during the streak, rushing and passing the Aggies to 30+ points in six straight contests. Taking on a Liberty defense surrendering just 16.8 points per game will undoubtedly be NMSU’s toughest test yet.


The Flames have crushed everything in their path en route to a perfect 12-0 record. Quarterback Kaidon Salter is fresh off a 6-touchdown performance and leads a Liberty offense averaging a whopping 44.8 points per game in 2022. While New Mexico State’s defense has held opponents to just 11.8 points during its eight-game winning streak, the unit has not faced an attack quite like Liberty’s high-flying onslaught.


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Game Info


When: Friday, December 1, 2023at 7:00 PM ET
Where: Williams Stadium
Stream: SofaScore


Diego Pavia QB vs. Kaidon Salter QB


In his first year as a starter, Diego Pavia has been simply exceptional for the Aggies. The dynamic dual-threat ranks top 15 nationally in yards per pass attempt (8.4), yards per carry (5.9), and passer rating (150.1). Pavia has thrown 23 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions, while adding another 4 scores on the ground. The Liberty defense has been stingy against the pass, but has had issues containing mobile quarterbacks this season. If Pavia can break contain and make plays with his legs Friday night, the Aggies will be in business.


Kaidon Salter has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country during a tremendous redshirt freshman campaign. Leading the top-ranked offense in FBS, Salter has compiled 2,431 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and a 179.2 rating so far. He’s coming off his biggest performance yet last week, shredding Virginia Tech for 401 yards and 6 touchdowns. Salter is lethal on deep balls and thrives under pressure. New Mexico State must get after the young quarterback and force him into mistakes, a tough ask against Liberty’s experienced offensive line.


NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Liberty Flames -385, Total Odds: 55.5


The early betting has installed Liberty as 10.5-point home favorites for Friday’s season finale. This line shows respect for New Mexico State’s eight-game winning streak while acknowledging Liberty’s undefeated record and dominance on both sides of the ball. The total is set at 55.5 points and is a tricky call between two quality defenses. However, the Flames offense should have the edge and help this game sail over the number. At -385 on the moneyline, Liberty backers must lay almost 4-1 on what should be a competitive matchup. There is value with the Aggies at +315, though, as 10.5 points is generous against an undefeated team perhaps looking ahead to bowl season.


New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends


The Aggies are rolling from a betting perspective, covering the spread in 10 straight contests. New Mexico State is 8-0 straight up over that span, scoring 35+ points in six of those outings. The Aggies offense is peaking heading into this finale, but the defense will be tested against elite competition for the first time in two months. Back NMSU getting 10+ points from what could be an overconfident undefeated host.


Liberty Flames Betting Trends


The Flames have been nearly unstoppable since a one-point loss at Wake Forest in September, reeling off nine straight wins both SU and ATS. Liberty is 7-0 straight up at Williams Stadium this season, winning by 15+ points in every home affair besides the opener. However, Liberty is just 1-6 ATS over its last seven games against New Mexico State. The Flames are still perfect on the year SU and catch the Aggies in their toughest matchup in weeks. Lay the points with the Liberty moneyline to complete an unbeaten regular season.


New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23 NCAAF Betting Picks


This Friday night clash is destined to be one of bowl season’s most exciting matchups, featuring one team riding an eight-game winning streak against an undefeated conference rival. The game will likely be decided by how well New Mexico State contains Liberty’s multi-dimensional offense, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter. While the Aggies defense has been stout during its streak, Flames offense coordinators Hugh Freeze and Kent Austin will have two weeks to exploit any weaknesses. Expect Liberty to pull away late for its 13th straight victory. Back the Flames at home against the number and take the OVER on a total set slightly too low for the fireworks ahead. This elite sports prediction says Liberty wins 41-24.


Free Pick and Prediction: Liberty Flames 41, New Mexico State Aggies 24



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