Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-4) vs. Troy Trojans (10-2)
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Troy Trojans 12/2/23 – The Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-4) take on the Troy Trojans (10-2) in a Week 13 Sun Belt Conference clash. Our NCAAF expert selection for this highly-anticipated matchup sees two potent offenses facing stiff defensive tests.
Troy, winners of nine straight, host an App State squad in strong form themselves having won five of their last six. With the second- and third-ranked scoring offenses in the Sun Belt, expect some offensive fireworks. The Mountaineers boast elite playmakers at quarterback and wide receiver, while the Trojans counter with a dangerous ground game. This contest could come down to which defense rises to the occasion.
Appalachian State’s hopes lie with quarterback Joey Aguilar and receiver Kaedin Robinson, while Troy will look to running back Kimani Vidal and dual-threat signal-caller Gunnar Watson. Ball security and turnover margin should prove pivotal to determining a winner. Our analysis gives a slight edge to the home side, but the visitors have shown impressive resilience this season.
Appalachian State vs. Troy Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 2, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Stream: | SofaScore |
Joey Aguilar QB vs. Gunnar Watson QB
Joey Aguilar is enjoying a stellar senior campaign, leading the Sun Belt’s fourth-ranked passing attack with over 3,200 yards and 33 touchdowns. His 157.5 passer rating ranks 10th nationally, exhibiting stellar efficiency and decision-making. Though prone to the occasional turnover, Aguilar has completed over 63% of throws with 8.4 yards per attempt. The Mountaineers move the chains at will in his command of the offense. His prowess throwing the long ball and instant chemistry with Robinson give App State big play upside through the air. The key matchup sees Aguilar facing his toughest road test yet against the conference’s top pass defense.
While not quite matching Aguilar’s numbers, Watson guides the Sun Belt’s second-best offense with poise and athleticism. Though he has five fewer touchdown passes, the sophomore gunslinger has tossed just five picks all year compared to nine for his counterpart. His 61% completion percentage and 150.7 rating are solid marks as well. Where Watson really brings value is making plays with his legs, rushing for over 300 yards and three scores. His versatility keeping defenses guessing gives this Troy attack plenty of dynamism. Watson must avoid the turnover issues that have plagued him in games against App State, who boast a fierce pass rush.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Troy Trojans -265, Total Odds: 52.5
Our experts foresee this as a tightly-contested affair, making the six-point spread look rather generous in favor of the hosts. The Mountaineers have shown grit on the road this season inside the number. Meanwhile the total of 52.5 seems reasonable for two capable offenses, however both defenses excel on third downs. Tread carefully around heavy wagers on this game’s point scoring.
Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Trends
The visitors check several key boxes entering Saturday’s tussle. They are 4-1 against the spread over their last five overall while posting a sterling 5-0 straight up record. App State has also topped Troy five consecutive times head-to-head. Road games have trended under the total lately, staying beneath it in four of their previous five away. Finally, the Mountaineers sport sensational 7-1 ATS and 5-0 SU marks across their last eight facing Sun Belt foes.
Troy Trojans Betting Trends
Troy keeps rolling entering the final week of the regular season, covering in seven of eight with nine consecutive outright triumphs. Home field has fueled this surge, going an impeccable 12-1 straight up on their own turf over the past two campaigns. Against the number, six of the previous eight clashes with Appalachian State eclipsed the total. Additionally, the Trojans are 7-0 straight up across their last seven battles with conference adversaries.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Troy Trojans 12/2/23 Betting Picks
Riding an avalanche of momentum behind them, Troy seems a solid wagering option in Saturday’s contest as narrow home chalks. Our exclusive premium picks endorse laying the six points with the Trojans. However, those eyeing the under 52.5 could find betting value as well in a matchup between two staunch defensive units. In a contest likely to come down to the wire, the safer move sides with the hosts and presumed favorites. Troy’s success shutting down both the run and the pass forecasts trouble for Appalachian State offensively on the road. Yet don’t count out the visitors and their resistance-breaking quarterback Joey Aguilar mounting a late push. This one appears destined to be settled in the final moments either way.
Free Pick and Prediction: Troy Trojans 30, Appalachian State Mountaineers 27