North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3) vs. NC State Wolfpack (8-3)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack 11/25/23 – The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3) will take on the NC State Wolfpack (8-3) in a heated Week 13 rivalry matchup with major ACC and bowl implications on the line. This Saturday night showdown features two ranked ACC foes led by star quarterbacks Drake Maye and Brennan Armstrong. Our top NCAAF picks suggest tuning into this exciting contest between talented signal-callers and evenly-matched conference rivals.
The North Carolina Tar Heels boast one of the nation’s top passing offenses, averaging 312.5 yards per game – 5th overall in the FBS. Maye has put together a phenomenal season with 3,354 passing yards and 35 touchdowns while completing 63.8% of his throws. However, the Heels have struggled on the road, going just 1-3 straight up away from Chapel Hill.
Meanwhile, NC State Wolfpackfeatures a stingy defense, holding opponents to just 277 total yards per game – 20th nationally. The Wolfpack have been excellent at home, going 5-1 while outscoring opponents by over 13 points on average at Carter-Finley Stadium. Riding a five-game winning streak, NC State plays their best late in seasons under Dave Doeren.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack 11/25/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Carter-Finley Stadium |
| TV: | ACCN |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Drake Maye QB vs. Brennan Armstrong QB
Drake Maye has put together a phenomenal season worthy of Heisman consideration. The redshirt freshman leads the FBS with 3,354 passing yards and 77 touchdown passes while completing 63.8% of his throws. Maye excels at pushing the ball downfield, averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt. His poise and accuracy make North Carolina’s vertical pass game nearly impossible to stop. However, Maye has tossed 7 interceptions and taken 28 sacks due to questionable decision-making. Facing a tough Wolfpack pass rush behind star linebacker Payton Wilson, Maye must avoid mistakes and get the ball out quickly.
Meanwhile, Brennan Armstrong endured difficulties transitioning to NC State’s offense after transferring from Virginia. But he seems to have turned a corner lately, cutting down on turnovers while improving his completion percentage and passer rating. Armstrong won’t light up the stat sheet like Maye, but he protects the football and makes plays with his legs when needed. His dual-threat ability poses problems for the Tar Heels’ 104th-ranked passing defense. If Armstrong avoids mistakes, he can lead the balanced Wolfpack offense to success.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: NC State Wolfpack +115, Total Odds: 55
Despite playing on the road, UNC enters as narrow 2.5-point favorites. The Tar Heels boast the superior offense behind Maye’s aerial production and lead the all-time series 68-37-6. However, NC State played UNC tough last season and their defense is rounding into form. The Wolfpack also ride a 12-game home winning streak at Carter-Finley Stadium. With two passionate fan bases fueling a rivalry atmosphere, this game will likely come down to the wire. Lean towards the favorites, but don’t count out the Wolfpack in their house. The Over looks enticing given both teams feature dynamic quarterbacks and middling defenses.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends
The Tar Heels ride top-10 scoring and passing offenses behind Drake Maye’s standout season. However, UNC struggles on defense, ranking outside the top 100 in points and yards allowed. Surprisingly, North Carolina owns a losing ATS record (4-7) despite their offensive fireworks. Road games have haunted the inconsistent Tar Heels (1-3 ATS away from Chapel Hill). Saturday marks North Carolina’s toughest road test yet against bitter rivals. Interestingly, UNC dominated NC State at home but stumbled frequently as visitors, going 2-5 straight up in their last seven trips to Raleigh.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Trends
Riding a five-game winning streak, NC State plays their best football in November under Dave Doeren. The Wolfpack emerged victorious in 17 of their last 20 home games while going 10-2 straight up as home underdogs. Meanwhile, NC State shut down North Carolina at Carter-Finley Stadium recently, covering five straight home matchups. The Wolfpack defenselocked down UNC’s offense in last year’s 34-30 upset victory. With difference-makers like Wilson and safety Tyler Baker-Williams, State seems equipped to limit Maye and the Heels again on Saturday night. If Armstrong protects the football and avoids crippling mistakes, NC State should keep this one-possession affair close.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack 11/25/23 Betting Picks
This ACC Atlantic rivalry clash proves extremely tough to predict. North Carolina boasts the superior quarterback and offense behind Maye’s prolific production. However, NC State excels defensively and rarely loses at home, going 17-3 straight up in their last 20 games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Trust the Wolfpack to keep this one close against their bitter rivals. Although Maye should help UNC grab an early lead, expect Brennan Armstrong to lead NC State to a comeback victory. Our top handicapper insights predict the home underdogs pull off a thrilling 48-49 upset win in this back-and-forth shootout.
Free Pick and Prediction: NC State Wolfpack 35, North Carolina 33
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