Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-5) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-6)
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd 11/25/23 – The Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-5) go on the road to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd (5-6) in a Week 13 NCAAF matchup on Saturday, November 25 at 3:30 PM ET at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Our handicapper reviews the odds and provides his picks and predictions for this Sun Belt vs Conference USA showdown.
The Red Wolves enter this game winning four of their last six, while the Thundering Herd have lost six of their previous seven outings. Arkansas State has struggled on the road with a 3-17 record in their last 20 games away from home. Meanwhile, Marshall has a strong 6-1 home record this season.
Arkansas State will look to quarterback Jaylen Raynor to lead the offense after a solid campaign so far. Raynor has over 2000 passing yards with 14 touchdowns through the air. His top target Courtney Jackson is averaging over 17 yards per catch and has 6 receiving touchdowns. Running back Ja’Quez Cross anchors the ground attack with 661 rushing yards and 6 scores.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd 11/25/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET |
| Where: | Joan C. Edwards Stadium |
| TV: | ESP+ |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Jaylen Raynor QB vs. Cam Fancher QB
Jaylen Raynor has had a solid 2023 campaign for Arkansas State. He’s completed over 60% of his passes for 2030 yards through the air and 14 touchdowns while being turnover prone, throwing 5 interceptions. Raynor excels at throwing on the run or when play breaks down while his decision-making has improved as evidenced by less forcing of passes into coverage compared with last season; with mobility to avoid pass rush and extend plays. For Arkansas State to secure victory on the road this weekend they’ll need another efficient performance from Jaylen Raynor!
Cam Fancher‘s first season leading the Marshall offense has been up and down. While he’s completed 65% of his throws, Fancher has just 8 touchdown passes compared to 11 picks over 11 games. His average of 6.8 yards per attempt indicates a lot of short, high-percentage throws in this system. Fancher lacks elite arm strength or deep ball accuracy. He prefers to take what the defense gives rather than push the ball downfield aggressively. Fancher has put the ball in jeopardy too often with some questionable reads. His decision-making and risk tolerance must improve for Marshall’s offense to take the next step. Fancher doesn’t offer much as a runner either.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd -125, Total Odds: 53.5
The Thundering Herd open as slim 2.5-point home favorites with the total set at 53.5 points. Marshall failed to cover the spread in seven straight contests but catches Arkansas State on the road here. The total has gone under in four of Marshall’s last five outings. Based on the teams’ contrasting late-season form and Marshall’s home field advantage, laying the small number with the Thundering Herd seems advisable.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Trends
The Red Wolves enter this matchup with strong recent form against the spread, covering in 4 of their last 5 games. Arkansas State games have also trended under lately, going under in 4 of their previous 6 contests. While the Red Wolves were once struggling straight up as well, they’ve turned things around by winning 6 of their last 9 games. However, road games have continued to give Arkansas State problems, with the team going just 3-17 straight up in their last 20 away contests.
Marshall Thundering Herd Betting Trends
Marshall’s struggles seem to be widespread, as they’ve failed to cover the spread in 7 consecutive outings. The under has been the more profitable play in Marshall games recently, hitting in 4 of the team’s last 5 contests. The Thundering Herd’s straight up woes have matched their issues against the spread, with Marshall losing 6 of their last 7 games. The one saving grace has been Marshall’s home field advantage, where the team is 6-1 straight up on the season. However, the Thundering Herd have struggled against Sun Belt foes, going just 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games against the conference.
Arkansas State vs. Marshall 11/25/23 Betting Picks
This Sun Belt vs Conference USA clash will likely come down to whether Arkansas State’s offense can trade points with Marshall on the road. The Red Wolves enter with far better recent form while the Thundering Herd have scuffled late in the season. If Raynor and the Arkansas State offense can avoid crippling mistakes, they should be able to exploit Marshall’s porous pass defense that allows nearly 250 yards per game. Meanwhile, Fancher and the Marshall offense lack firepower, topping 24 points only once over their last seven outings. Riding the small spread with the struggling home side seems risky despite Marshall’s home field edge. Our analysis suggests taking the points with the Red Wolves as the smarter NCAAF matchup insights predict an upset victory for Arkansas State.
Free Pick and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves 34, Marshall Thundering Herd 31