Sam Houston Bearkats (3-7) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-8)
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 11/11/23 – As the NCAAF season edges deeper into the crunch time of November, the Sam Houston Bearkats and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prepare to clash on the 11th of November, 2023. Despite the teams’ disappointing win-loss records this season, with the Bearkats at 3-7 and the Bulldogs at a struggling 1-8, the stakes remain high. This Week 11 encounter is one not to miss, with multi-handicapper tips predicting a closer contest than the records suggest.
Team 1 Analysis: Sam Houston Bearkats feature a mix of emerging talent and experienced players, but it’s running back John Gentry and wide receiver Noah Smith who have been standout contributors despite the team’s struggles. Gentry, with his 87 rushing attempts resulting in 283 rushing yards, has demonstrated resilience in the Bearkats’ ground game, while Smith has been a reliable target in the air, hauling in 61 receptions for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns. Their performances will be critical in attempting to upset the odds.
Team 2 Analysis: On the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs’ side, the spotlight shines on quarterback Hank Bachmeier and running back Tyre Shelton. Bachmeier has maintained a commendable 67.9 completion percentage, passing for 1476 yards this season. However, he’s also been vulnerable behind his line, taking 19 sacks. Shelton’s 6.5 yards per rush attempt, totaling 504 rushing yards, give the Bulldogs a potent threat on the ground that the Bearkats will need to contain if they hope to secure a win.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 11/11/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET|
|Where:||Joe Aillet Stadium|
Keegan Shoemaker QB vs. Hank Bachmeier QB
Keegan Shoemaker, the quarterback for the Bearkats, has had a season of ups and downs. With 190 completions out of 298 passing attempts, he’s accumulated 1769 passing yards but has also thrown 8 interceptions and been sacked 12 times, indicating some vulnerability in the pocket. Despite a moderate 122.6 passer rating, Shoemaker’s 63.8% completion rate shows potential for efficiency. His ability to handle pressure and make smarter decisions, particularly avoiding turnovers, will be crucial against the Bulldogs.
Hank Bachmeier of the Bulldogs presents a contrasting style. His 146.7 passer rating is a bright spot in an otherwise tough season, signifying his ability to be impactful when protected. Bachmeier’s 7.8 yards per pass attempt are evidence of his aggressive downfield vision, but the 19 sacks suggest a need for faster decision-making or better protection schemes against the Bearkats’ defense.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -300, Total Odds: 48
The Bulldogs enter as the favorites with a -7.5 point spread, a reflection of the Bearkats’ concerning trend of being 0-11 SU in their last 11 games on the road. The total set at 48 points suggests a moderate scoring game, aligned with both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Trends
The Bearkats’ betting trends don’t paint a rosy picture, with the team going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. The trend of going OVER in 5 of their last 7 games does hint at their offensive abilities to put up points but also suggests defensive issues, as does their 1-15 SU record in the last 16 games, showing a broader struggle beyond just this season.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Trends
The Bulldogs, similarly, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. However, their tendency to hit the OVER in 11 of the last 13 games at home indicates that their offense comes alive on familiar turf. Their 9-2 SU record in their last 11 games played in week 11 provides a glimmer of historical optimism for home supporters.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 11/11/23 Betting Picks
Given the comparative analysis and betting trends, my final thoughts lean towards an underdog opportunity. While the Bearkats have struggled, their ATS performance on Saturdays is a promising 5-2. Louisiana Tech, despite the better record in Week 11 games historically, has shown vulnerability this season that the Bearkats could exploit.
In terms of NCAAF game choices, taking the Bearkats to cover the +7.5 spread could be the wiser pick, banking on their resilience and the Bulldogs’ overall record this season. The total is trickier, but with both teams showing a tendency to hit the OVER in various conditions, it could be another game that eclipses the set mark.
Free Pick and Prediction: Sam Houston Bearkats 27, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24