Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) vs Wisconsin Badgers (5-4)
Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers 11/11/23 – As the college football season pushes into the penultimate phases, the Northwestern Wildcats face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in a pivotal NCAAF Week 11 showdown. With both teams hovering around the .500 mark, the matchup at Camp Randall Stadium on November 11th promises to have significant implications on bowl eligibility and could also serve as a critical juncture for those making NCAAF future picks. The Wildcats, 4-5, are coming off an uneven run, punctuated by a tendency to perform well against the spread (ATS), going 4-2 in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Badgers have fared slightly better overall at 5-4 but have showcased a rock-solid performance at home. The 3:30 PM ET kickoff will be broadcast live on FS1, setting the stage for an intriguing Big Ten clash.
In analyzing Northwestern, the contributions of Cam Porter at running back cannot be overstated. Despite averaging a modest 3.6 yards per rush attempt, his persistence in the ground game has been vital. Wide receiver Bryce Kirtz, with his 507 receiving yards and four touchdowns, has been the standout performer, providing a reliable target for quarterback Ben Bryant. Kirtz’s ability to stretch the field with 15.4 yards per catch has provided Northwestern with much-needed offensive explosiveness.
Conversely, the Wisconsin Badgers have found their stride in the running game thanks to Braelon Allen. Churning out 754 rushing yards at an impressive clip of 5.8 yards per attempt, Allen has been a beacon of consistency. Will Pauling has been a key component of the passing attack, hauling in 46 receptions for 500 yards. The chemistry he has with quarterback Tanner Mordecai will be critical against Northwestern’s defense.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers 11/11/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET|
|Where:||Camp Randall Stadium|
Ben Bryant QB vs Tanner Mordecai QB
Northwestern’s Bryant has had a challenging season, with a 59% completion rate and more modest aerial numbers. His vulnerability has been exposed by the 15 sacks he’s taken, leading to 103 sack yards lost. His performance under pressure and decision-making will be under scrutiny, especially considering Wisconsin’s defensive prowess.
Mordecai of Wisconsin presents a contrasting figure, posting a better completion percentage at 63.7% and a higher passer rating. His pocket presence has been more stable, with only 8 sacks taken. Mordecai’s composure and efficiency will be pivotal in carving through the Wildcats’ secondary.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Wisconsin Badgers -340, Total Odds: 42
The Badgers enter as ten-point favorites, a reflection of their superior record and home-field advantage. Bettors are eyeing the total cautiously, with the under being a common trend for both teams, suggesting a defensively dominated game could be in the offing.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Trends
The Wildcats’ ATS performance suggests they’ve often outperformed expectations, particularly against stronger opponents. However, their abysmal 0-14 on-the-road record is a glaring red flag. Those wagering on Northwestern will have to weigh their ATS resilience against their road game woes.
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Trends
Wisconsin’s trends depict a team that’s not just strong at home (7-1 SU in their last 8 home games against Northwestern) but also robust in their conference play. The under trend suggests their games tend to be low-scoring, a testament to their defense.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers 11/11/23 Betting Picks
In final analysis, while the Wildcats have shown tenacity against the spread, the Badgers’ formidable home record and the strength of their running game give them an edge. The play of both quarterbacks will be critical, but the defensive units might be the ones tipping the scales.
From a handicapping perspective, Wisconsin seems better positioned to cover the spread, given their dominance at Camp Randall Stadium and Northwestern’s struggles on the road. For those looking at prop bets, consider the under on total points, aligning with both teams’ recent trends. In terms of top handicapper selections, the smart money would likely lean towards the Badgers covering the spread, and the under on total points being a prudent pick.
Free Pick and Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers 27, Northwestern Wildcats 14