Free NFL Picks For Today 10/1/2023
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Falcons vs. Jaguars—Game played at Wembley Stadium in London England. Atlanta starters on offense and defense are healthy. Jacksonville receiver Zay Jones is out with their right tackle questionable. On defense their nose tackle is questionable with a linebacker out. Atlanta fell to 2-1 with their 20-6 road defeat to Detroit Tigers. Falcons rushed for just over two yards per carry. They held the Lions to over 3.5 yards per rush with 243 passing on 33 attempts. Desmond Ridder completed 21 of 38 for 201 yards. He averaged 5.3 yards per attempt and took seven sacks, losing 62 yards. Jacksonville fell to 1-2 with their 37-17 home defeat to Houston Texas. Jaguars rushed for 4.5 yards a carry. They limited the Texans to just over three yards per carry but 280 passing yards on 30 attempts. Trevor Lawrence completed 27 of 40 for 279 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged 7 yards per attempt. The Jaguars had a -2-turnover margin. Back-to-back travel for Atlanta in this spot. Ridder 0-3 straight up as an away underdog. Falcons have the 29th ranked passing attack. Jaguars are doing a good job of stopping the run. Atlanta is 27th offensively on third down. Ridder’s inefficiency is a concern here. Play Jacksonville -3.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Rams at Colts—Los Angeles tight end and left tackles are questionable on offense. Their defensive starters are healthy. Indianapolis left tackle and center are out with their left guard questionable. On defense a defensive tackle is questionable. Los Angeles fell to 1-2 with their 19-16 road defeat at Cincinnati. Los Angeles rushed for 71 yards on 13 carries. They limited the Bengals to under three yards per run with 242 passing on 49 attempts. Matthew Stafford hit on 18 of 33 for 269 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. He took six sacks as two offensive linemen went down to injuries. Rams were just 1 of 4 inside the red zone. Indianapolis improved to 2-1 with their 22-19 road overtime victory at Baltimore. The Colts rushed for four yards a carry. They did surrender 186 yards rushing to the Ravens with 178 passing on 31 attempts. The Colts allowed five sacks but had a +2-turnover margin. Anthony Richardson missed the game due to a concussion. Gardner Minshew went 27 of 44 for 227 yards and a touchdown. He averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt. Five field goals were made by Matt Gay including the 53-yard game winner. Colts struggling in pass defense by allowing 251 yards and 69.1% completion rate. Colts passing game averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt and rushing for under 3.9 yards per carry. Injuries to the Indy offensive line are the major concern here. Play Los Angeles Rams at pick.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Commanders at Eagles—Washington starters on offense and defense are healthy. Philadelphia receiver Watkins is out. On defense their strong safety is questionable. Washington fell to 2-1 with their 37-3 home defeat to the Buffalo Bills. Commanders rushed for 105 yards on thirteen carries. They surrendered 168 rushing yards to the Bills with 218 passing on 32 attempts. Sam Howell hit 19 of 29 for 170 yards and four interceptions. Washington allowed nine sacks. It was a -4-turnover margin for the Commanders. Philadelphia is 3-0 after their 25-11 road victory on Monday night to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Eagles rushed for 201 yards averaging five yards a carry. They limited the Bucs to just over two yards per rush with 133 passing yards on 25 attempts. Eagles were just 1 of 5 inside the red zone. Jalen Hurts was 23 of 37 for 277 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He rushed for 28 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles are allowing 262 yards passing and 66% completion rate. Commander’s defense has been strong in the red zone. Short week for Philadelphia after playing on Monday night. Washington is running for 5 yards a carry. Play Washington +9.
Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Broncos at Bears—Denver has healthy starters on offense. On defense a linebacker is out with free safety questionable. Chicago has healthy starters on offense. On defense a corner and safety are out. Denver fell to 0-3 after their 70-20 road defeat to the Miami Dolphins. Bronco’s defense was torched for 726 yards with 350 rushing. They allowed 376 passing yards to the Dolphins on 28 attempts. Denver rushed for nearly 3.5 yards a carry. Russell Wilson was 23 of 38 for 306 yards with a touchdown and pick. He averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Denver surrendered 6 of 6 inside the red zone. Chicago is 0-3 with their 41-10 road defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bears were down 34-0 at the half. Chicago rushed for just over 4.5 yards per attempt. They did allow 153 rushing yards to the Chiefs with 303 passing on 38 attempts. Justin Fields hit 11 of 22 for 99 yards with a touchdown and interception. He rushed for 47 yards on 11 carries. His averaged pass depth to his targets is 6.6 yards which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. The Sack percentage of 12.9% is amongst the worst in the league. Bears defense allowed 5 of 5 red zone conversions. Chicago is the 29th ranked offense in the NFL by averaging only 250 yards a game. Bears defense sit 30th by allowing 407 yards a game. Chicago defense is 32nd on third down and 29th in the red zone. They are giving up big plays in the passing game by allowing 12.6 yards per completion and 8.7 per pass attempt. Denver has the better offense by margin here and average 6 yards per play which ranks sixth in the NFL. Play Denver -3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Buccaneers at Saints—Tampa Bay offenses starters are healthy. On defense, a defensive end and cornerback are out. Their nose tackle, a linebacker and right corner are questionable. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr is questionable, and their right guard is out. On defense a corner and safety are out. Tampa Bay fell to 2-1 with their 25-11 home defeat on Monday Night to the Philadelphia Eagles. Buccaneers ground game stalled with under three yards per rush. They surrendered 201 yards rushing to the Eagles with 271 passing yards on 37 attempts. Baker Mayfield hit 15 of 25 for 146 yards with a touchdown and interception. He averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. After facing the Vikings and Bears to open the season, Mayfield struggled against the defending NFC Champions. New Orleans fell to 2-1 after their 18-17 road defeat to the Green Bay Packers. Saints blew the 17-0 lead after three quarters. They rushed for 3.5 yards a carry. They limited the Packers to under four yards a carry with 245 passing on 44 attempts. Derek Carr has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and is questionable. Jameis Winston relieved last week in the third quarter by going 10 of 16 for 101 yards and 6.3 yards per attempt. Saints were up 17-0 when Winston relieved and drove the team for their missed 46-yard field goal. Short week for Tampa Bay off their Monday night loss. Winston is an experienced starting quarterback, should he fill in for Carr. New Orleans defense is eighth on third down and third in the red zone. This unit sits 10th in total defense. Buccaneers’ offense 24th in the league averaging only 284 yards a game. They are rushing for only 2.8 yards a carry and with their injuries on the offensive line it could be very difficult in this road spot for Mayfield. Play New Orleans -3.5.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Ravens at Browns—Baltimore running back Hill is questionable as is their center. Receivers Beckham Jr. and Bateman are out with their left tackle doubtful. On defense two linebackers and a corner are out. Both safety’s are questionable. DeShaun Watson is questionable for Cleveland. Their starters on defense are healthy. Baltimore fell to 2-1 with their 22-19 home overtime defeat to Indianapolis Colts. Ravens rushed for 186 yards. They allowed four yards per rush to the Colts with 188 yards passing on 44 attempts. Lamar Jackson hit 22 of 31 for 202 yards with 6.5 yards per attempt. He rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Ravens surrendered five made field goals in defeat. Cleveland improved to 2-1 with their 27-3 home victory to Tennessee Titans. Browns rushed for under three yards a carry. They limited the Titans to 26 rushing yards with 68 passing on 25 attempts. Deshaun Watson hit 27 of 33 for 289 yards and two touchdowns. He had sixteen rushing yards. Watson was limited in practice. Rookie Dorian Thompson Robinson out of UCLA could see action here. He did show well in the preseason. Browns have the top defense in the NFL by allowing just 164 yards a game. Cleveland is still running for 4.5 yards per rush which would aid Robinson here. Cluster injuries are a massive concern for the Ravens. Play Cleveland -2.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Vikings at Panthers—Minnesota center is questionable. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Carolina running back Sanders and receiver Mingo are questionable. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Minnesota fell to 0-3 with their 28-24 home defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers. Vikings rushed for 5.1 yards a carry. They limited the Chargers to 30 yards rushing but 445 yards passing on 48 attempts. Kirk Cousins hit 32 of 50 for 367 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Vikings were only 1 of 4 inside the red zone. Carolina fell to 0-3 with their 37-27 road defeat at Seattle. Panthers rushed for only 44 yards. They allowed 146 yards to the Seahawks with 279 passing on 36 attempts. Bryce Young missed the game due to an ankle injury. He practiced on Wednesday and is on track to play. The rookie is completing 59.2% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averages only 4.2 yards per pass attempt and has rushed for 51 yards. Minnesota sits third in total offense averaging 406 yards a game with strong performance in the passing game. Carolina struggling with their rookie quarterback with accuracy. The offense is putting up 299 yards a game. Panthers have double digit losses to the Falcons and Seahawks. Young missed last week’s game and is averaging only 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Don’t see the Panthers able to match scores with the Vikings here. Play Minnesota 4.5.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Dolphins at Bills—Miami has their left tackle and center questionable. On defense a linebacker is out with safety questionable. Buffalo has healthy starters on offense with a safety out on defense. Miami is 3-0 after their 70-20 home victory to Denver Broncos. The Dolphins rushed for 350 yards. They limited the Broncos to 3.5 yards per run with 294 passing on 38 attempts. Tua Tagovailoa his 23 of 26 for 309 yards with four touchdowns. He averaged 11.9 yards per attempt. The team was 6 of 6 inside the red zone. Buffalo improved to 2-1 with their 37-3 road victory to Washington. Bills rushed for 168 yards. They did allow 105 yards rushing to the Commanders with only 125 passing on 29 attempts. Bills had a +4-turnover margin by picking off four passes. Josh Allen went 20 of 32 for 218 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Miami faced Buffalo three times last season and was very competitive, losing by no greater than three points. Now factor a healthy Tua and early October weather in Buffalo sitting around 70 degrees. In their two meetings in Buffalo last year the Dolphins averaged 30 points a game. Miami won their home game against Buffalo in 2022 in late September. Play Miami +3.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Steelers at Texans—Pittsburgh has their right guard out. Their defensive starters are healthy. Houston left tackle and left guard are out. Their center is questionable. On defense their middle linebacker is out. Pittsburgh improved to 2-1 with their 23-18 road win at Las Vegas Raiders. Steelers rushed for 3.5 yards a carry. They held the Raiders to 69 yards rushing with 293 passing on 44 attempts. Pittsburgh had a +3-turnover margin. Kenny Pickett hit 16 of 28 for 235 yards with two touchdowns. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. Houston improved to 1-2 with their 37-17 road win at Jacksonville. Texans rushed for over three yards a carry. They surrendered 4.5 yards per run to the Jaguars with 288 passing yards on 42 attempts. Houston had a +2-turnover margin. C.J. Stroud hit 20 of 30 for 280 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Houston was aided by an 85 yard kickoff return for touchdown and built an early 17-0 lead. Texans pass defense has issues by allowing 73.2% completions and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Houston is 32nd offensively in the red zone. The defense is 27th on third down and red zone. Cluster offensive line injuries are a massive concern for this rookie quarterback against this Steelers defense. Both backup left tackles are also out for Houston. Three backup right tackles out for Houston as well. Filling that void on the left side is challenging. Play Pittsburgh -2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Bengals at Titans—Cincinnati tight end Smith Jr. is out. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Titans wide receiver Burks is out and so if their right guard. On defense a nose tackle and defensive end are questionable. Cincinnati improved to 1-2 with their 19-16 home victory to the Los Angeles Rams. Bengals rushed for just two yards per attempt. They limited Los Angeles to 71 rushing yards with 221 passing on 33 attempts. Joe Burrow hit 26 of 49 for 259 yards and an interception. He averaged just 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Tennessee drops to 1-2 after their 27-3 road defeat to the Cleveland Browns. Titans rushed for only 27 yards. They held the Browns to 2.5 yards a carry with 263 passing yards on 33 attempts. Ryan Tannehill hit 13 of 25 for 104 yards. He averaged 4.2 yards per attempt. Tannehill was sacked five times, but the Titans defense recorded three. Both offenses rank near the bottom of the league. Titans have struggled defending the pass this year by giving up 275 yards, 10.7 yards per completion and 7.7 yards per attempt. Bengals are allowing 5.1 yards per rush which means Derrick Henry could go off. Titans were able to generate 27 points at home to the Chargers. Play Cincinnati and Tennessee over 41.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Raiders at Chargers—Las Vegas quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable. On defense both defensive ends are questionable as is a corner. Los Angeles running back Austin Ekeler is doubtful. On defense Joey Bosa is questionable as is a safety. Their free safety is doubtful. Las Vegas is 1-2 after their 28-13 home defeat to Pittsburgh Steelers. Raiders rushed for only 69 yards. They limited the Steelers to 3.5 per run with 228 passing on 28 attempts. Las Vegas had a -3 turnover margin. Jimmy Garoppolo hit 28 of 44 for 324 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. He was limited in practice as he is in concussion protocol. Las Vegas could look for Brian Hoyer and rookie Aiden O’Connell. Los Angeles improved to 1-2 with their 28-24 road win at Minnesota. The Chargers rushed for only 30 yards. They allowed 130 yards on the ground to the Vikings with 345 passing on 50 attempts. Justin Herbert hit 40 of 47 for 405 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Chargers intercepted a pass in the endzone in the closing seconds to preserve victory. Garoppolo took part in limited practice on Thursday and Friday. Chargers have the number two offense in the league by averaging 417 yards a game. Raiders are surrendering 74.7% completion rate. Chargers are 31st in total defense and giving up 6.9 yards per play also ranking 31st. Los Angeles allowing opposing quarterbacks 12.6 yards per completions and 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Teams are rushing for 4.4 yards against them. This has the look of a high scoring game. Play Las Vegas and Los Angeles over 48.5.
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Cardinals at 49ers—Arizona receiver Marquise Brown is questionable as is their right tackle. On defense a tackle and linebacker are out. San Francisco receivers Jauan Jennings doubtful and Deebo Samuel is questionable. On defense a linebacker is questionable. Arizona improved to 1-2 with their 28-15 home victory to Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals rushed for 222 yards. They surrendered 185 rushing yards to Dallas with 231 passing on 40 attempts. Arizona held Dallas to 1 of 5 inside the red zone. Joshua Dobbs hit on 17 of 21 for 189 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 9 yards per pass attempt and rushed for 55 yards. San Francisco improved to 3-0 with their 30-12 home victory on Thursday nigh to the New York Giants. 49ers rushed for 141 yards. They held the Giants to 29 yards on the ground with 121 passing on 33 attempts. Brock Purdy completed 25 of 37 for 310 yards with two touchdowns. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. Cardinals getting production on the ground with 5.6 yards per carry. The passing game has shown accuracy with a 72% completion rate. Fourteen points is a lot to lay in a division game against a Cardinals team that has shown to be competitive in games. Play Arizona +14.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Patriots at Cowboys—New England has a left guard on offense questionable. On defense their nose tackle and a linebacker are questionable. Cowboys have their left tackle out with center and right guard questionable. Their defensive starters are healthy. New England improved to 1-2 with their 15-10 road win at New York Jets. The Patriots rushed for nearly 4 yards a carry on 40 rushing attempts. They held the Jets to 38 rushing yards with 133 yards passing on 36 attempts. Mac Jones hit on 15 of 29 for 201 yards with a touchdown. Dallas fell to 2-1 with their 28-16 road defeat to Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys rushed for 185 yards. They surrendered 222 yards rushing to the Cardinals with 178 passing on 21 attempts. Dallas was 1 of 5 inside the red zone. Dak Prescott hit on 25 of 40 for 249 yards with a touchdown and interception. He was missing three starting offensive linemen. Dallas is fourth in total defense and the Patriots are fifth. Cowboys offensive line is banged up. Patriots are struggling to get points. Dallas is running at high volume to try and keep their defense fresh. Play New England and Dallas under 43.5.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets NFL Betting Pick Prediction 10/1/2023
Chiefs at Jets—Kansas City offensive starters are healthy. They have their middle linebacker out. New York has healthy starters on offense. Their free safety is out. Kansas City improved to 2-1 with their 41-10 home victory to Chicago Bears. KC were up 34-0 at the half. They rushed for 153 yards. Kansas City held the Bears to just over four yards per run with 87 passing on 22 attempts. The team was 5 of 5 inside the red zone. Patrick Mahomes hit 24 of 33 for 272 yards and three interceptions. He averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and rushed for 28 yards. New York fell to 1-2 with their 15-10 home defeat to New England Patriots. Jets rushed for only 38 yards. They surrendered 157 yards rushing to the Patriots with 201 yards passing on 29 attempts. Zach Wilson completed 18 of 36 for 157 yards averaging only 4.4 yards per attempt. Jets offense started poorly with one first town in their first five drives. Chiefs are fifth in total offense with 390 yards per game. On both sides the team is strong on third down and red zone. Jets are the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL averaging 225 yards a game. KC defense holding foes to 280 yards a game good for seventh in the league. New York offense is 32nd and last on third down with 21.6% conversions. Play Kansas City -8.5.