Free MLB Picks For Today 9/30/2023
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Guardians at Tigers—Tristan McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie in three starts has an ERA of 6.17 with WHIP of 1.63. The righthander strikes out 27.8% with 18.5% walks. Ground balls served at 41.4% with limited home run damage.
Tyler Holton to start for Detroit. Holton had 57 appearances with an ERA of 2.19 with WHIP of 0.85. The second-year left-hander fans 23.7% with 5.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 44.7% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.53 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
McKenzie in his return allowed three earned runs with six walks in 1 2/3rd innings. Tigers have won six of seven as this series opened. Tigers pitching past seven games allowing three runs and .205 hitting. Play Detroit.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Rays at Blue Jays—Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell appeared in 27 games in 2023 carries an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.14. The righthander is fanning 19.8% with 2.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 42.9% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
Hyun Jin Ryu to start for Toronto. Ryu has ten starts with an ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander strikes out 17.8% with 6.7% walks. Grounders dished at 48.1% with 1.65 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.04 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Rays bullpen in their past ten games an ERA of 4.61. Rays hitting .279 against lefthander averaging six runs per game. The over is nine of ten in their past ten meetings. Play Tampa Bay and Toronto over 8.5.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Marlins at Pirates—Bryan Hoeing to be primary pitcher for Miami. Hoeing appeared in 32 games dealing an ERA of 5.17 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander is striking out 17.6% with 7.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 45.2% with 1.68 home runs per nine innings.
Quinn Priester to start for Pittsburgh. Priester has nine appearances with an ERA of 7.86 with WHIP of 1.66. The rookie righty has a strikeout mark of 15.9% with 12.6% walks. Ground balls delivered at 50.7% with 2.22 home runs per nine innings.
The Marlins got the Pirates bullpen for four runs overcoming a 3-0 late deficit. Past ten games Pittsburgh bullpen an ERA of 6.35. Priester and the Pirates bullpen tough to back. Play Miami -155.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Cubs at Brewers—Jordan Wicks to start for Chicago. Wicks in six starts on the season produces an ERA of 3.00 with WHIP of 1.12. The rookie lefthander fans 17% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.5% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings.
Janson Junk will start for Milwaukee. Junk in one start allowed four earned runs with two strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings at Arizona in early April. He pitched 140 innings in Triple A with an ERA of 4.18 and WHIP of 1.35 striking out 94 batters with 44 walks.
A career MLB ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.50 in 29 1/3rd innings with 23 strikeouts. Chicago has lost four straight all to division winners. Wicks, past two starts allowed six earned runs with five walks in 10 1/3rd innings. Milwaukee bullpen past ten games an ERA of 1.54 with Cubs at 4.65. Play Milwaukee -115.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Phillies at Mets Game 1—Cristopher Sanchez to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez in eighteen starts has an ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.06. The lefthander is striking out 24.2% with 4.1% walks. Ground balls served at 57.1% with 1.46 home runs per nine innings.
Jose Quintana to start for New York. Quintana has 12 starts with an ERA of 3.39 and WHIP of 1.28. The veteran lefty strikes out 18.5% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls served at 40.4% with limited home run damage. Quintana faced the Phillies a week ago, allowing six runs and two homers in six innings.
Sanchez at home an ERA of 2.16 with WHIP of 0.92. New York 19-45 as an underdog of +100 or greater with a -21.1-unit loss. Mets 16-34 facing left-handed starters with a -26.6 unit loss. Play Philadelphia in Game 1.
Phillies at Mets Game 2—Taijuan Walker to start for Philadelphia. Walker in 30 starts on the year posts an ERA of 4.35 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander is striking out 19.2% with 9.5% walks. Grounders sit at 44.8% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings.
Tylor Megill to start for New York. Megill in 24 starts with an ERA of 4.92 with WHIP of 1.62. The righty is fanning 18.1% with 10.4% walks. Ground balls delivered at 43.4% with 1.36 home runs per nine innings. Walker in his last start held the Mets to two runs in six innings.
Megill, past four starts allowed nine runs in 22 innings. Team record behind Walker 14-3 against a losing team with a +9.5 unit return. Phillies have won five straight against New York. Play Philadelphia -117 in Game 2.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Padres at White Sox—Michael Wacha to start for San Diego. Wacha in 23 starts in 2023 carries an ERA of 3.39 with WHIP of 1.19. The veteran fans 22.2% with 8% walks. Ground balls delivered at 35.5% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Wacha is pitching for a team option of two years for $32 million dollars starting next season.
Mike Clevinger to start for Chicago. Clevinger has 23 starts with an ERA of 3.40 and WHIP of 1.17. The righthander is striking out 20.2% with 7.1% walks. Grounders dealt at 30.7% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Clevinger is pitching for a $12 million contract next year under a mutual option.
Wacha has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of five starts. Clevinger has allowed five earned runs in his past four starts working 28 innings. Padres 7-1 to the under in their past eight games. White Sox past seven games hitting .194. Play San Diego and Chicago under 8.5.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Yankees at Royals—Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt appeared in 32 games with an ERA of 4.65 with WHIP of 1.34. The righthander fans 21.6% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls delivered at 44.9% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings.
Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh has 16 appearances with an ERA of 5.66 with WHIP of 1.53. The rookie righty deals a K rate of 24.6% with 11.2% walks. Grounders sit at 34.5% with 2.06 home runs per nine innings. Schmidt past three starts allowed ten runs in 14 1/3rd innings.
Marsh past two starts allowed eight runs in 9 2/3rd innings. Past ten games Royals bullpen an ERA of 5.89 and Yankees at 4.83. The over hit 12 of 16 in their past sixteen meetings in Kansas City. Play New York and Kansas City over 9.5.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Rangers at Mariners—Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney appeared in 33 games in 2023 carrying an ERA of 4.28 with WHIP of 1.38. The lefthander has a K rate of 24% with 9.5% walks. Grounders dealt at 40.1% with 1.45 home runs per nine innings.
Luis Castillo to start for Seattle. Castillo has 32 starts with an ERA of 3.20 and WHIP of 1.06. The righthander has a K rate of 27.4% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 38.8% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Heaney on the road has an ERA of 4.60 and allowing two home runs per nine innings.
Castillo at home a WHIP of 0.93 with team record of 11-6. Mariners’ bullpen the past ten starts have an ERA of 3.03. Rangers’ bullpen has been an issue all season long except for a stretch following the All Star Break. Castillo in two starts against Texas this year allowed four earned runs in twelve innings with fifteen strikeouts. Play Seattle -140.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Red Sox at Orioles—Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford appeared in 30 games on the season posting an ERA of 4.23 with WHIP of 1.15. The righthander is striking out 25.2% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 34.9% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings.
Kyle Gibson to start for Baltimore. Gibson has 32 starts with an ERA of 4.86 with WHIP of 1.31. The veteran is striking out 19.5% with 6.9% walks. Grounders dished at 49.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Crawford past three starts allowed six earned runs in 16 innings.
Gibson faced the Red Sox early this season allowing four earned runs in five innings. Past seven games Baltimore is averaging 3.6 runs per game and hitting .232. The Orioles with nothing to play for will lack intensity on offense like we saw on Friday. Play Boston +124.
Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Reds at Cardinals—Connor Phillips to start for Cincinnati. Phillips in four starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 5.66 with WHIP of 1.35. The rookie righthander is striking out 28% with 10.8% walks. Ground balls delivered at 33.9% with 2.18 home runs per nine innings.
Drew Rom will start for St Louis. Rom has seven starts with an ERA of 7.98 with WHIP of 2.05. The lefthander is striking out 16.9% with 10.8% walks. Grounders come in at 41.1% with 1.84 home runs per nine innings.
Phillips has allowed three earned runs or fewer in his past three starts. Rom has been hammered for thirteen runs in his past two starts in 6 2/3rd innings.
Cincinnati 44-28 facing a losing team this year with a +18.5-unit return and 13-6 on the road facing team on the road with a .380-to-.460-win percentage. St Louis past seven games hitting .197 and putting up 2.1 runs per game. Play Cincinnati -122.
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Nationals at Braves—Joan Adon to start for Washington. Adon appeared in eleven games with an ERA of 6.42 with WHIP of 1.59. The righthander strikes out 19.5% with 10% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36% with 1.51 home runs per nine innings.
Spencer Strider to start for Atlanta. Striders have 31 starts with an ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.07. The second year righty has an elite 37.1% strikeout rate with 7.5% walks. Ground balls served at 34.3% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings.
Adon past three starts allowed thirteen earned runs in 13 2/3rd innings. Strider past five starts surrendered eighteen earned runs in 28 1/3rd innings.
Braves 23-11 to the over against teams with a .380 to .460 win percentage. Strider 9-0 to the over facing teams getting outscored by 0.5 runs or greater this season. Past seven games Atlanta putting up 6.7 runs per game. Play Washington and Atlanta over 9.
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Astros at Diamondbacks—Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander in 26 starts in 2023 produces an ERA of 3.32 with WHIP of 1.14. The veteran is striking out 21.4% with 6.5% walks. Grounders served at 35.4% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings.
Merrill Kelly will start for Arizona. Kelly has 29 starts with an ERA of 3.38 with WHIP of 1.20. The righthander fans 26.1% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 45.5% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Verlander past five starts allowed 17 runs in 34 innings.
Kelly at home has an ERA of 2.91 with WHIP of 1.02. Past seven games Arizona hitting .236. Past ten games Houston bullpen an ERA of 2.27 and Diamondbacks at 1.39. Play Houston and Arizona under 9.
Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Twins at Rockies—Dallas Keuchel to start for Minnesota. Keuchel appeared in nine games delivering an ERA of 5.40 with WHIP of 1.54. The lefthander strikes out 13.5% with 9.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 53% with limited home run damage.
Karl Kauffman to start for Colorado. Kauffman has ten appearances with an ERA of 7.04 and WHIP of 1.60. The righthander fans 10.4% with 10.4% walks. Grounders dished at 40.8% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings.
Rockies bullpen past ten games an ERA of 6.00. Both starters pitching to extremely high contact which is a massive concern in this stadium. Play Minnesota and Colorado over the total.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Dodgers at Giants—Clayton Kershaw to start for Los Angeles. Kershaw in 23 starts this season deals an ERA of 2.42 with WHIP of 1.05. The lefthander has a strikeout mark of 26.3% with 7.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.5% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.98 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Tristen Beck to start for San Francisco. Beck appeared in 32 games with an ERA of 4.05 with WHIP of 1.21. The righthander strikes out 19.5% with 6% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.6% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings.
Kershaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five starts. Beck past two starts allowed nine earned runs in 7 innings. Los Angeles past seven games hitting .293 and putting up 5.9 runs per game.
In this period the Giants hit .159 and scored 1.9 runs a game. Los Angeles 42-29 to the run line against a losing team with a +12-unit return. Kershaw 16-5 to the run line facing a team with an OBP of .315 or worse. Play Los Angeles on run line -1.5 runs at -102.
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/30/2023
Athletics at Angels—Joe Boyle to start for Oakland. Boyle has two starts allowing no runs with nine strikeouts in nine innings. The righthander was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame. He spent 2023 in three levels of the minors putting up good numbers in his past two starts.
Davis Daniel will start for Los Angeles. Daniel has two appearances allowing three earned runs with seven strikeouts in 7 1/3rd innings. The rookie attended college in Auburn spending 2023 in three levels of the minors with good numbers.
Boyle in his two starts allowed no earned runs in nine innings. Athletics past seven games hitting .214 and Angels putting up 3.6 runs per game. Play Oakland and Los Angles under 8.5.
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