Free MLB Picks For Today 9/19/2023
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Mets at Marlins—Joey Lucchesi to start for New York. Lucchesi in seven starts carries an ERA of 2.83 and WHIP of 1.26. The lefthander is striking out 16.7% with 9% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.2% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.48 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold.
Braxton Garrett to start for Miami. Garrett appeared in 29 games with an ERA of 3.67 and WHIP of 1.16. The lefthander strikes out 23.7% with 4.4% walks. Ground balls served at 49.9% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings. Lucchesi has allowed no earned runs in his past two starts working 12 2/3rd innings.
Garrett past three starts allowed two earned runs in 15 2/3rd innings. New York hit .224 against lefthanders and 28-18 to the under against them. Marlins 25-12 to the under against left-handed starters as they struggle to score runs. Garrett 19-6 to the under working on 5 to 6 days rest. Play New York and Miami under 8.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Angels at Rays—Patrick Sandoval to start for Los Angeles. Sandoval in 26 starts in 2023 deals an ERA of 4.48 and WHIP of 1.50. The fifth-year lefthander a strike out mark of 19.3% with 10.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 47.7% with 0.72 home runs per nine innings.
Taj Bradley to start for Tampa Bay. Bradley has nineteen starts with an ERA of 5.56 and WHIP of 1.41. The righthander fans 29.4% with 9% walks. Ground balls come in at 35.1% with 1.89 home runs per nine innings. Los Angeles has lost five straight. Sandoval past three starts allowed 20 runs in 13 2/3rd innings.
Bradley past two starts allowed eight earned runs with five homers in 11 innings. Angels are 20-6 to the over in their past 26 against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per game or greater. The Rays are 16-6 to the over against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. Play Los Angeles and Tampa Bay over 8.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Twins at Reds—Kenta Maeda to start for Minnesota. Maeda in nineteen starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.50 and WHIP of 1.22. The righthander is striking out 26.1% with 6.3% walks. Grounders sit at 32.7% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings.
Ben Lively will be the primary pitcher for Cincinnati. Lively has sixteen appearances with an ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.31. The righthander is striking out 21% with 5.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.2% with 2.11 home runs per nine innings. The Reds have won six of eight.
Cincinnati bullpen the past ten games an ERA of 2.70. Twins -19.4 unit loss facing a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or better this season. Reds +15.6 units facing the American League this season. Minnesota -11 units facing right-handed starters. Lively at home a WHIP of 1.11. Play Cincinnati +132.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Jays at Yankees—Yusei Kikuchi to start for Toronto. Kikuchi has 29 starts on the campaign producing an ERA of 3.81 and WHIP of 1.25. The lefthander is fanning 25.4% with 7% walks. Ground balls delivered at 39.7% with 1.52 home runs per nine innings.
Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt in 30 appearances with an ERA of 4.56 and WHIP of 1.34. The righthander has a K rate of 22.4% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 44.3% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
Kikuchi has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of three starts. Schmidt past three starts allowed ten runs in 16 1/3rd innings. Team record behind Kikuchi 13-5 against winning teams with a +8 unit return. New York -9.4 units loss against the division at home this year. Play Toronto -111.
Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
White Sox at Nationals—Jose Urena will start for Chicago. Urena in seven starts posts an ERA of 8.48 and WHIP of 1.88. The righthander strikes out 14.5% with 11.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 44% with 3.77 home runs per nine innings.
Jackson Rutledge to start for Washington. Rutledge in his MLB debut allowed seven earned runs with ten hits in 3 2/3rd innings at Pittsburgh. The righthander is a first-round draft pick in 2019 out San Jacinto Texas Junior College. He spent 2023 in two levels of the minors with mixed results.
Urena in his last start allowed six earned runs with three homers in 6 1/3rd innings against the Twins. White Sox bullpen the past ten games an ERA of 4.70. White Sox 28-14 to the over facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher. Play Chicago and Washington over 9.5.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Phillies at Braves—Michael Lorenzen to be primary pitcher for Philadelphia. Lorenzen in 25 starts has an ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.18. The righthander is striking out 17.8% with 7.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 40.9% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings.
Spencer Strider to start for Atlanta. Strider in 29 starts on the year has an ERA of 3.73 and WHIP of 1.08. The righty has an elite strikeout mark of 37.6% with 7.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 33.9% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Four straight losses for Atlanta as their pitching is getting hammered.
Past ten games Braves bullpen an ERA of 8.55 and Phillies at 2.12. Sanchez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of five starts. Strider past three starts allowed 11 earned runs in 15 2/3rd innings.
Philadelphia 7-1 on the road facing a team with a .620 win percentage or higher. Sanchez in his four road starts an ERA of 1.29 and WHIP of 0.71. Play Philadelphia +194.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Pirates at Cubs—Bailey Falter to start for Pittsburgh. Falter has appeared in sixteen games on the campaign with an ERA of 4.40 and WHIP of 1.30. The third-year lefthander is striking out 17.8% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.5% with 1.51 home runs per nine innings.
Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad in 27 appearances delivers an ERA of 3.10 and WHIP of 1.25. The righthander has a strikeout mark of 18.2% with 9.7% walks. Grounders come in at 47.1% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.49 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
Cubs have won nine of ten against the Pirates winning by two runs or greater in eight of those games. Assad has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of five starts.
Pittsburgh hitting only .223 and putting up 3.8 runs in divisional games. Chicago hitting .274 and scoring six runs a game against the division. Chicago hitting .272 against left handed starters. Play Chicago on run line -1.5 runs.
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Free MLB Picks For Today 9/19/2023
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Guardians at Royals—Logan Allen to start for Cleveland. Allen has 23 starts in the year posting an ERA of 3.60 and WHIP of 1.35. The lefthander fans 22.6% with 8.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 42.5% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings.
Alec Marsh to be primary pitcher for Kansas City. Marsh in fourteen appearances an ERA of 5.67 and WHIP of 1.59. The rookie righthander is striking out 25.4% with 11.8% walks. Ground balls delivered at 32.5% with 2.24 home runs per nine innings.
Royals have won five of six as they got to the Guardians bullpen in the win on Monday. Allen has allowed one earned run in each of his past two starts. Cleveland bullpen past ten games an ERA of 4.94. Kansas City +9.4 units in their past 34 home games going 18-16. The Royals put up five runs on Allen in his start in late July. Play Kansas City +141.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Brewers at Cardinals—Adrian Houser to be primary pitcher for Milwaukee. Houser appeared in 20 games delivering an ERA of 4.53 and WHIP of 1.46. The righthander has a K mark of 19.6% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.1% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings.
Drew Rom to start for St Louis. Rom has five starts with an ERA of 5.96 and WHIP of 1.76. The rookie lefthander fans 16.8% with 12.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46.1% with 1.59 home runs per nine innings.
Brewers over their past seven games are hitting .283. Cardinals in this period hitting .213. Rom at home an ERA of 5.78 and WHIP of 1.71. Play Milwaukee -125.
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Red Sox at Rangers—Tanner Houck to start for Boston. Houck has eighteen starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.94 and WHIP of 1.33. The righthander strikes out 21.6% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls delivered at 52.6% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings.
Nathan Eovaldi to start for Texas. Eovaldi in 22 starts carries an ERA of 2.96 and WHIP of 1.09. The veteran is striking out 22.9% with 7.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 50.9% with limited home run damage. Red Sox have won seven of eight against the Rangers.
Houck in his last start allowed no runs in six innings against the Yankees. Since returning from injury, Eovaldi has allowed six earned runs in seven innings. Boston as an underdog of +125 to +175 has returned +11.4 units. Rangers bullpen at home with an ERA of 5.17. Houck on the road a WHIP of 1.20. Play Boston +133.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Orioles at Astros—Kyle Gibson to start for Baltimore. Gibson has 30 starts in the season posting an ERA of 4.98 and WHIP of 1.32. The veteran is striking out 19.5% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls served at 49.1% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.
Hunter Brown will start for Houston. Brown appeared in 28 games with an ERA of 4.61 and WHIP of 1.34. The righthander strikes out 27.3% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 52.4% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Astros have lost five of seven.
Gibson in his past two starts allowed four earned runs in 12 2/3rd innings. He has pitched well against the Astros in his past three starts against them. Hunter Brown in his past five starts allowed 19 runs in 21 innings. Orioles roughed up Brown for five earned runs with two homers in six innings in a victory over a month ago.
Baltimore +23.6 unit return when facing winning teams. Orioles +18.8 units as a road underdog of +100 or higher on the year. Gibson on the road a WHIP of 1.27. Brown has been hammered at home with an ERA of 5.69 and WHIP of 1.54. Play Baltimore +130.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Rockies at Padres—Ryan Feltner to start for Colorado. Feltner has eight starts to the season producing an ERA of 5.86 and WHIP of 1.75. The righthander is fanning 20% with 15.2% walks. Ground balls served at 45.3% with limited home run damage.
Blake Snell to start for San Diego. Snell in 30 starts with an ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander has an elite strikeout rate of 31.4% with 13.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 43.5% with 0.81 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.53 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Snell in his past two starts allowed two earned runs in 25 innings. Snell is 7-0 to the under facing teams with an OBP of .315 or worse. Rockies 30-18 to the under facing left handed starters. Padres bullpen has performed well at home. Play Colorado and San Diego under 8.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Mariners at Athletics—Luis Castillo to start for Seattle. Castillo in 30 starts in 2023 carries an ERA of 3.08 and WHIP of 1.04. The veteran strikes out 27.2% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 39.2% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn appeared in nineteen games with an ERA of 4.14 and WHIP of 1.54. The righthander fans 22.7% with 8.9% walks. Ground balls served at 40.8% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings.
Athletics has been held to three runs or fewer in nine of ten games against the Mariners with the under coming in seven of those games. Castillo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five games. Blackburn has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts.
Athletics 50-35 to the under facing an American League starter with an ERA of 3.70 or lower past two seasons. Past seven games Oakland hitting .196. Play Seattle and Oakland under 7.5.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Giants at Diamondbacks—Alex Cobb to start for San Francisco. Cobb in 27 starts this year delivers an ERA of 3.62 and WHIP of 1.30. The righthander is fanning 20.5% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 57.3% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.
Zac Gallen will start for Arizona. Gallen in 31 starts an ERA of 3.50 and WHIP of 1.11. The righty is striking out 25.7% with 5.3% walks. Grounders come in at 40.5% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Gallen in his past four starts allowed 18 runs in 24 2/3rd innings.
Team record behind Cobb 13-3 in night games with a +10.3 unit return. Past seven games Arizona hitting .229. Cobb has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four starts. Play San Francisco +133.
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/19/2023
Tigers at Dodgers—Alex Faedo to start for Detroit. Faedo appeared in fifteen games in 2023 delivering an ERA of 4.45 and WHIP of 1.05. The second year righthander fans 22.1% with 7.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 36.3% with 1.67 home runs per nine innings.
Ryan Pepiot is the primary pitcher for Los Angeles. Pepiot has five appearances with an ERA of 2.00 and WHIP of 0.64. The second year righty a K rate of 22.4% with 2% walks. Ground balls delivered at 42.3% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.51 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
Past seven games Los Angeles averaging 6.6 runs per game. Past seven games Tigers averaging 5.7 runs per game. Dodgers bats have been hot and should exploit the Detroit bullpen as Faedo doesn’t figure to go very long. Play Detroit and Los Angeles over the total.
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