UMass Minutemen (1-11 Last season) vs. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6 Last year)
UMass Minutemen vs. New Mexico State Aggies 8/26/2023 – UMass struggled to a 1-11 record in 2022, their fourth consecutive season with no more than one victory. Since their return to the FBS in 2012, UMass failed to record a winning campaign, with their two most recent 4-8 seasons under Mark Whipple coming in 2017 and 2018. As UMass begins its second campaign under Brown, there is good and terrible news. The good news is that their defense, which finished ninth in pass defense (175.2 ypg) and 12th in third-down defense (30.9%) last season, returns eight starters.
By sweeping six of their final seven matches, including the bowl victory over Bowling Green, New Mexico State finished 2022 with a 7-6 record. The last time the Aggies won six straight games was in 1966, and the club hopes to replicate that feat as they go to Conference USA. For the first time in a very long time, New Mexico State has continuity on its side. The Aggies return their coaching staff from a season ago, along with 100% of their running touchdowns, 71% of their receiving yards, 83% of their receiving touchdowns, and 97% of their production from the run game. Get expert insights and predictions with free daily College Football picks.
Minutemen vs. Aggies Game Info
| When: | Saturday, August 26, 2023 7:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| Where: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, NM |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
| Stream: | N/A |
Minutemen QB Brady Olson and Aggies QB Diego Pavia
Brady Olson completed 13 of 24 passes for 145 yards. He finished the game with two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 88.3. The Minutemen allowed an average of 5.9 yards per attempt in the running game, totaling 329 yards on 56 attempts. UMass allowed 2 pass completions on 5 attempts for a completion percentage of 40.0% and a total of 67 yards. They had 56 plays total in the game, totaling 235 yards. The UMass Minutemen ultimately ran the ball 31 times for 90 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
The Bowling Green Falcons were defeated by the Texas A&M Aggies in their final game by a score of 24-19. Ahmonte Watkins ran the ball nine times for a total of 76 yards for New Mexico State, averaging 8.4 yards per carry for the duration of the contest. Diego Pavia (2 touchdowns) finished the game with 167 yards on 17/29 passing attempts for a quarterback rating of 122.9. He attempted 1 throw, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt.
Odds/Point Spread: New Mexico State Aggies -6.5, Total Odds: 45
Last season, UMass struggled severely on offense, and things don’t look too great at the start of 2023 either. They did add Phommachanh, a player with four years of ACC experience, but he has little actual playing time under his belt. The Minutemen’s situation is made much more difficult by the fact that they no longer have Ellis Merriweather to perform labor on the ground.
Nearly all of New Mexico State’s offensive output from the previous season is returning, giving them the chance to capitalize on their late-season success. With so many new players, the defense will need some time to gel, but playing a club with an ineffective offense like the Minutemen will be advantageous. The Aggies are energized by playing at home in a nationally broadcast game and defeating the Minutemen for the third consecutive season.
UMass Minutemen Betting Trends
The UMass Minutemen are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 matches. The total went UNDER in 7 of Massachusetts’ last 10 matches. UMass Minutemen are 0-9 SU in their last 9 matches. The UMass Minutemen are 0-20 SU in their last 20 matches on the road. The UMass Minutemen are 0-7 SU in their last 7 matches against an Independents (FBS) conference opponent.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
The New Mexico State Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches. The total went OVER in 4 of New Mexico State’s last 5 matches. The Aggies are 6-1 SU in their last 7 matches. The New Mexico State Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 matches at home. The New Mexico State Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 matches played in August.
UMass Minutemen vs. New Mexico State Aggies 8/26/2023 Betting Picks
The UMass Minutemen are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 matches played in August. The total went OVER in 6 of Massachusetts’ last 7 matches played in week 1. The total went UNDER in 6 of Massachusetts’ last 9 matches played on a Saturday. The New Mexico State Aggies are 0-10 SU in their last 10 matches in week 1. The New Mexico State Aggies are 5-1 SU in their last 6 matches played on a Saturday.
In their previous matchup, New Mexico State won 23-13 on the road by pitching a shutout in the second half. The Minutemen had a chance to win this game because they were only down by three points in the fourth quarter. Given the defensive mindset of both teams, the under is the play. Get expert insights and predictions with free daily sports picks.
Free Pick and Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies will win 27-21