Free MLB Picks For Today 8/18/2023
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Royals at Cubs—Cole Ragans to start for Kansas City. Ragans has 21 appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 4.21 and WHIP of 1.36. The second year lefthander strikes out 25.5% with 11% walks. Ground balls dealt at 44.4% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
Jameson Taillon will start for Chicago. Taillon in 21 starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 5.71 and WHIP of 1.39. The veteran righthander strikes out 20.2% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 35.3% with 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
Ragans have allowed one earned run or fewer in three of four starts. Past seven games Royals batting .319 and Cubs hitting .213. Taillon at home an ERA of 6.33 with WHIP of 1.61. Play Kansas City +158.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Tigers at Guardians—In Game 1 Matt Manning will start for Detroit. Manning has 11 starts in 2023 producing an ERA of 4.60 and WHIP of 1.16. The righthander has a K rate of 16.3% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 35.3% with 1.53 home runs per nine innings.
Gavin Williams to start for Cleveland. Williams in ten starts producing an ERA of 2.80 and WHIP of 1.17. The rookie righty is striking out 26.6% with 9.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.2% with 0.82 home runs per nine innings. Guardians are 27-8 to the under against the division this year.
Tigers 41-21 to the under facing an AL starter with a WHIP of 1.20 or lower. Both bullpens enter in good form and a day off after the postponement on Thursday. Play Detroit and Cleveland under 8.5 in Game 1.
Tigers at Guardians—In Game 2 Tarik Skubal to start for Detroit. Skubal has seven starts on the season posting an ERA of 4.18 and WHIP of 1.14. The fourth year lefthander has a K rate of 27.7% with 4.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 54.7% with minimal home run damage.
Xzavion Curry to start for Cleveland. Curry in 30 appearances in 2023 delivers an ERA of 3.39 and WHIP of 1.19. The righthander deals 16.1% K’s with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 28.9% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.31 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold.
Curry has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five. Skubal past three starts allowed ten runs in 15 1/3rd innings. Guardians bullpen at home an ERA of 2.66 and WHIP of 1.11. Play Cleveland +100 in Game 2.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Blue Jays at Reds—Jose Berrios will start for Toronto. Berrios in 24 starts on the campaign delivers an ERA of 3.53 and WHIP of 1.22. The eighth year righthander strikes out 22.6% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.4% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings.
Brett Kennedy expected to start for Cincinnati. Kennedy appeared in two games allowing four earned runs with four strikeouts in seven innings. He worked 64 innings in Triple A this year posting an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.30 striking out 57 batters in 64 innings.
He was an eleventh round draft pick in 2015 out of Fordham. He had six starts with the Padres in 2018 putting up an ERA of 6.74 and WHIP of 1.80. Berrios 9-1 to the under on 5 to 6 days of rest. Reds 8-0 to the under in their past eight at home. Blue Jays past seven games hitting .234. Play Toronto and Cincinnati under 10.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Red Sox at Yankees—Brayan Bello will start for Boston. Bello has 20 starts on the campaign putting up an ERA of 3.81 and WHIP of 1.26. The second year righthander a strikeout mark of 20% with 6.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 56.2% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings.
Jhony Brito to start for New York. Brito in fifteen appearances in 2023 has an ERA of 4.76 and WHIP of 1.29. The rookie righty a K rate of 18% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 44.6% with 1.73 home runs per nine innings. Red Sox have won five of six against the Yankees this year.
Bello in his three starts against New York has allowed four earned runs in 20 innings. Past seven games Yankees batting .214 and have lost eight of ten. Brito at home an ERA of 5.62 giving up seven homers in 24 innings. Play Boston.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Phillies at Nationals—Michael Lorenzen to start for Philadelphia. Lorenzen in 20 starts in 2023 delivers an ERA of 3.23 and WHIP of 1.04. The ninth year righthander is striking out 19.4% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 40.9% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings.
Joan Adon to start for Washington. Adon has four appearances with an ERA of 5.14 and WHIP of 0.86. The righty fans 25.9% with 7.4% walks. Grounders served at 41.7% with 1.93 home runs per nine innings. Nationals have won six of nine. Past ten games Washington bullpen ERA of 2.70.
Lorenzon has allowed five earned runs in his past five starts working 35 2/3rd innings. He no hit the Nationals back August 9th. Phillies bullpen in good form. Play Philadelphia and Washington under 9.
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Giants at Braves—Alex Cobb will start for San Francisco. Cobb in 22 starts in 2023 carries an ERA of 3.62 and WHIP of 1.37. The thirteen year veteran fans 21.2% with 6.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 56.6% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
Spencer Strider will start for Atlanta. Strider has 24 starts in 2023 putting up an ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.12. The righthander has an elite strikeout rate of 37.9% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 34.1% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings.
Past ten games San Francisco hitting .221 and Braves are at .308. Strider has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four games. Braves 25-8 to the run line facing a team with an OBP of .315 or worse on the year and 14-5 facing teams that average 7 or greater strikeouts per game.
Cobb has been pounded in his past two starts for eleven earned runs in 9 2/3rd innings. Play Atlanta on the run line -1.5 runs at -105.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Brewers at Rangers—Brandon Woodruff is the starter for Milwaukee. Woodruff has four starts on the year posting an ERA of 1.99 and WHIP of 0.84. The seventh year righthander has an elite 30.6% strikeouts with 4.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 37.7% with 1.59 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.92 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold.
Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney in 23 starts has an ERA of 4.17 and WHIP of 1.31. The ten year lefthander a strikeout mark of 24.4% with 9.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 37.2% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings. Rangers 12-4 at home when lined between +125 and -125.
Past seven games Milwaukee batting only .205. They hit only .216 against lefthanders. Texas at home putting up 6.2 runs per game. Heaney has allowed one earned run in his past three starts working 13 innings. Play Texas -114.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Mariners at Astros—Bryce Miller to start for Seattle. Miller has seventeen starts on the campaign with an ERA of 4.04 and WHIP of 1.05. The rookie righthander fans 23.6% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 30.7% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings.
J.P. France will start for Houston. France in seventeen starts delivers an ERA of 2.74 and WHIP of 1.21. The righty strikes out 17.4% with 7.2% walks. Ground balls sit at 44.3% with 0.88 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.01 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
France has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Mariners 3-13 facing an AL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or lower with a -11.3 unit loss. Past seven games Astros batting .292 and averaging 6.6 runs per game. Miller on the road an ERA of 5.16. Play Houston -136.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Pirates at Twins—Andre Jackson to start for Pittsburgh. Jackson has ten appearances in 2023 puts up an ERA of 5.47 and WHIP of 1.22. The righthander strikes out 20.7% with 25% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37.2% with 2.05 home runs per nine innings.
Pablo Lopez will start for Minnesota. Lopez in 23 starts an ERA of 3.66 and WHIP of 1.09. The sixth year righty an elite 30% strikeouts with 6.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 42% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. Lopez in his past three starts allowed one earned run in 19 innings.
Twins 15-3 to the under facing an NL team hitting .245 or worse. Past seven games Pirates batting .216. Twins hit just .239 in night games. Play Pittsburgh and Minnesota under 8.5.
New York Mets vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Mets at Cardinals—Joey Lucchesi to start for New York. Lucchesi has five starts delivering an ERA of 4.43 and WHIP of 1.34. The veteran lefthander fans 18.3% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 39.4% with 1.61 home runs per nine innings. He returns from the injured list after an injury.
Zack Thompson will start for St Louis. Thompson in seventeen appearances in 2023 carries an ERA of 3.96 and WHIP of 1.48. The second year lefty an elite 31.2% K rate with 11% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.5% with limited home run damage. New York 12-27 against lefthanded starters with a -23.6 unit loss as they hit just .219.
St Louis past seven games are hitting .291 and putting up 5.3 runs per game. Cardinals had won five of seven as this series began. Mets are 9-32 as an underdog of +100 or higher with a -22 unit loss. Play St Louis -132.
Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
White Sox at Rockies—Michael Kopech to start for Chicago. Kopech has 22 starts in 2023 delivering an ERA of 4.58 and WHIP of 1.46. The righthander strikes out 23.4% with 14.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 35.7% with 2.01 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.26 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
Peter Lambert will start for Colorado. Lambert appeared in 20 games with an ERA of 5.46 and WHIP of 1.43. The righty is striking out 19.8% with 8.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 45.6% with 1.82 home runs per nine innings. White Sox have lost four of five.
Rockies 26-9 at home against a team with a .380 to .460 win percentage with +16.3 unit return. Team record behind Kopech 8-13 as a favorite of -110 or higher with a -10.2 unit loss.
Rockies are returning positive units at home this year. Kopech past four starts allowed fourteen runs in 19 1/3rd innings. His home run rate a concern. Chicago 23-40 on the road with a -13 unit loss. Play Colorado -105.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Rays at Angels—Erasmo Ramirez will start for Tampa Bay. Ramirez in 28 appearances on the campaign posts an ERA of 5.72 and WHIP of 1.58. The veteran righthander is striking out only 11.7% with 3.9% walks. Grounders served at 44.9% with 0.92 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.01 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
Tyler Anderson to start for Los Angeles. Anderson has 21 appearances on the season with an ERA of 5.28 and WHIP of 1.52. The eight year lefthander fans 18.9% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 32.1% with 0.99 home runs per nine innings.
Past ten games Angels batting .196 and Rays at .281. Los Angeles bullpen in this period an ERA of 7.02. Anderson past four starts allowed fourteen earned runs in 22 innings. Play Tampa Bay -103.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Orioles at Athletics—Kyle Gibson will start for Baltimore. Gibson in 25 starts on the year has an ERA of 4.89 and WHIP of 1.33. The eleven year righthander strikes out 19.6% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 48.9% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.89 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
Luis Medina to start for Oakland. Medina has seventeen appearances with an ERA of 5.31 and WHIP of 1.53. The rookie righty is fanning 22.1% with 11.5% walks. Ground balls come in at 45.5% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings.
Medina at home an ERA of 3.78 and WHIP of 1.31. Gibson on the road an ERA of 4.62. Orioles past seven games hitting .216 and struggling for runs. Play Oakland on the run line +1.5 runs at -115.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Diamondbacks at Padres—Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona. Pfaadt in eleven starts produces an ERA of 6.91 and WHIP of 1.52. The rookie righthander fans 20.5% with 6.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 33.1% with 2.30 home runs per nine innings.
Seth Lugo expected to start for San Diego. Lugo has eighteen starts in 2023 an ERA of 4.16 and WHIP of 1.25. The eight year righty strikes out 23.2% with 5.2% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.3% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
Diamondbacks are 16-6 against losing teams with a +10.4 unit return. Team record behind Lugo 5-10 as a favorite of -110 or higher with -10.7 unit loss. Lugo at home an ERA of 5.40. Play Arizona +154.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 8/18/2023
Marlins at Dodgers—Sandy Alcantara to start for Miami. Alcantara has 24 starts on the year delivers an ERA of 4.09 and WHIP of 1.17. The veteran fans 20.8% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 51.7% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings.
Tony Gonsolin to start for Los Angeles. Gonsolin has nineteen starts posting an ERA of 4.24 and WHIP of 1.14. The righthander strikes out 19.4% with 8.7% walks. Grounders sit at 36.9% with 1.26 home runs per nine innings.
Marlins bullpen an ERA of 4.61 past ten games and Dodgers are at 1.97. Team record behind Alcantara 8-22 facing teams that outscore their opponents to 0.5 runs per game or greater.
Dating back to last season the Dodgers are 36-7 in the month of August with a +26 unit return. Los Angeles averaging 5.9 runs per game against righthanded starters. Play Dodgers -142.
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