Free MLB Picks For Today 7/21/2023
St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Cardinals at Cubs—Jack Flaherty to start for St Louis. Flaherty in eighteen starts posts an ERA of 4.29 with WHIP of 1.53. The righthander fans 22.2% with 11.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.2% with limited home run damage.
Justin Steele to start for Chicago. Steele has seventeen starts in 2023 producing an ERA of 2.96 with WHIP of 1.11. The lefthander deals 22% K’s with 5.1% walks. Ground balls served at 48.8% with limited home run damage. Past seven games Cubs hitting .300 and averaging 7.9 runs per game.
Steele past two games has allowed nine runs with nineteen hits in 12 innings. Past seven games Cardinals batting .285 and averaging 6.1 runs per game. Past ten games Cubs bullpen an ERA of 5.23. Play Chicago and St Louis over 8.5.
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Rockies at Marlins—Peter Lambert to start for Colorado. Lambert in fifteen appearances carries an ERA of 6.29 with WHIP of 1.63. The righthander deals 23.5% strikeouts with 9.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 43.6% with 2.36 home runs per nine innings.
Braxton Garrett to start for Miami. Garrett has nineteen appearances on the campaign with an ERA of 3.90 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander fans 26.6% with 4% walks. Ground balls dished at 47.4% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings.
Marlins have lost six straight. Garrett at home an ERA of 5.23. In his past three starts he has allowed ten runs in 15 1/3rd innings. Play Colorado on the run line +1.5 runs at +104.
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Padres at Tigers—Seth Lugo to start for San Diego. Lugo in thirteen starts in 2023 has an ERA of 3.78 with WHIP of 1.25. The eighth year righthander strikes out 22.2% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.4% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
Reese Olson to start for Detroit. Olson appeared in nine games posting an ERA of 3.96 with WHIP of 1.01. The rookie righty deals 25.8% strikeouts with 5.2% walks. Grounders served at 43% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings.
Padres pitching allowed just five runs in the three games in Toronto. Tigers have been held to three runs or fewer in four of five games. Olsen at home an ERA of 6.14. Prefer the Padres bats here. Play San Diego -135.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Orioles at Rays—Kyle Bradish to start for Baltimore. Bradish has seventeen starts on the year posting an ERA of 3.05 with WHIP of 1.13. The second year righthander strikes out 23.4% with 6.5% walks. Grounders come in at 44.5% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings.
Zach Eflin to start for Tampa Bay. Eflin in eighteen starts this season carries an ERA of 3.59 with WHIP of 1.03. The righty has a K rate of 25.2% with 3.6% walks. Grounders served at 52.8% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. Orioles had won eight of ten as this series opened.
Past three games Orioles have allowed one run in 19 1/3rd innings. Team record behind Bradish 17-8 against winning teams. Past seven games Baltimore hitting .290 and averaging 6.6 runs per game. Eflin was hammered for five runs in three innings at Kansas City. Play Baltimore +139.
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Giants at Nationals—Alex Wood to start for San Francisco. Wood has fourteen 2023 appearances posting an ERA of 4.53 with WHIP of 1.53. The eleven year lefthander fans 20.6% with 11.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 43.9% with 1.01 home runs per nine innings.
Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin in thirteen starts an ERA of 4.96 with WHIP of 1.49. The rookie righthander fans 15.9% with 10.5% walks. Ground balls delivered at 43.1% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings. Nationals pitching has been hammered coming off the break going over in all six games.
Giants are averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road. Wood past four starts allowed 13 runs in 16 1/3rd innings. Irvin past four starts allowed 12 runs in 19 2/3rd innings with the bullpen behind him an ERA of 5.49. Nationals do hit lefthanders. Play San Francisco and Washington over 9.5.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Royals at Yankees—Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh in three starts produces an ERA of 5.40 with WHIP of 1.47. The righthander deals 31.8% strikeouts with 12.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 20% with 3.00 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.62 does suggest an even higher ERA based on form.
Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt appeared in 20 games in 2023 with an ERA of 4.31 with WHIP of 1.34. The righty fans 23.3% with 6.6% walks. Grounders sit at 43.4% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings. New York has won eight of nine against Kansas City winning by two runs or greater in seven of those wins.
Royals 9-19 to the run line against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower. Yankees bullpen ERA over two runs lower than the Royals. Play New York on run line -1.5 runs at +100.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Diamondbacks at Reds—Tommy Henry to start for Arizona. Henry in fifteen starts on the campaign posts an ERA of 3.89 with WHIP of 1.35. The second year lefthander deals 16.9% strikeouts with 9% walks. Grounders dished at 36.4% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.07 suggests a rise in ERA based on form.
Ben Lively to start for Cincinnati. Lively appeared in eleven games with an ERA of 3.72 with WHIP of 1.20. The righthander fans 22.7% with 6.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 37.7% with 1.78 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.87 also suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Lively has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight starts. Diamondbacks bullpen an ERA of 5.97 past ten games and Reds ERA of 3.19. Play Cincinnati -121.
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Free MLB Picks For Today 7/21/2023
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Mets at Red Sox—Kodai Senga to start for New York. Senga has seventeen starts on the campaign posting an ERA of 3.20 with WHIP of 1.26. The righthander has an elite strikeout rate of 30% with 12% walks. Ground balls dished at 46.5% with 1.03 home runs per nine innings.
James Paxton the starter for Boston. Paxton in eleven starts in 2023 has an ERA of 3.51 with WHIP of 1.03. The lefthander deals 28.8% K’s with 7.2% walks. Grounders sit at 38.5% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings.
New York is 16-26 against winning teams and 7-22 as an underdog of +100 or higher with a -14.3 unit return. Past seven games New York hitting .161. They bat just .214 against lefthanders and averaging 3.3 runs per game. Red Sox at home hitting .289 and pushing across 5.6 runs per game. Play Boston -114.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Phillies at Guardians—Ranger Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez in twelve starts posts an ERA of 3.84 with WHIP of 1.35. The sixth year lefthander deals 21.5% strikeouts with 8.7% walks. Grounders sit at 51% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings.
Gavin Williams to start for Cleveland. Williams has five starts in 2023 delivering an ERA of 3.94 with WHIP of 1.18. The rookie righthander fans 19.2% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.5% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings.
Phillies 12-2 facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of .410 or worse this season. Guardians averaging just 3.6 runs per game at home. Suarez an ERA of 2.39 on the road with team record of 4-2. Williams at home an ERA of 5.60. Play Philadelphia -122.
LA Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Dodgers at Rangers—Tony Gonsolin to start for Los Angeles. Gonsolin in fourteen starts on the campaign carries an ERA of 3.72 with WHIP of 1.09. The fifth year righthander is striking out 18.9% with 9% walks. Ground ball rate of 39.4% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. The FIP is 4.69 an indicator of a rising ERA should form hold.
Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney ahs eighteen starts in 2023 with an ERA of 4.43 plus WHIP of 1.34. The ten year lefthander strikes out 24.6% with 9.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.1% with 1.68 home runs per nine innings.
Dodgers have been hitting on this road trip. Games go over in all three in Baltimore. Los Angeles 29-15 to the over against winning teams and 25-10 to the over facing teams that outscored opponents by .5 runs per game or greater. Heaney 18-7 to the over against a winning team and 20-8 to the over at home. Play Los Angeles and Texas over 9.5.
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
White Sox at Twins—Lance Lynn to start for Chicago. Lynn in nineteen starts in 2023 has an ERA of 6.06 with WHIP of 1.43. The thirteen year veteran strikes out 27.7% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 38.5% with 1.99 home runs per nine innings.
Joe Ryan to start for Minnesota. Ryan has nineteen starts with an ERA of 3.77 with a WHIP of 1.03. The third year righthander fans 28.9% with 4.6% walks. Grounders dished at 32.5% with 1.36 home runs per nine innings.
Ryan at home a WHIP of 0.89 with team record of 6-3. He has pitched well against the White Sox in his career. Chicago 19-32 on the road. Play Minnesota -154.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Braves at Brewers—Michael Soroka to start for Atlanta. Soroka appeared in five games this year posting an ERA of 5.40 with WHIP of 1.50. The righthander deals 17.8% K’s with 8.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 50% with 2.31 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.67 does suggest a rising ERA based on his numbers.
Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta has eighteen starts on the campaign with an ERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.26. The veteran fans 27.1% with 9.6% walks. Grounders dished at 39.2% with 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
Brewers 23-16 against winning teams and 37-27 against righthanded starters. They have won six of seven overall. Peralta in his past three starts against the Braves allowed no runs with 23 strikeouts in 17 innings. Soroka on the road an ERA of 5.65 with WHIP of 1.81. Play Milwaukee +115.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LA Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Pirates at Angels—Johan Oviedo to start for Pittsburgh. Oviedo in nineteen starts an ERA of 4.53 with WHIP of 1.36. The fourth year righthander strikes out 20.4% with 9.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 46.2% with 0.92 home runs per nine innings.
Shohei Ohtani expected to start for Los Angels. Ohtani has eighteen starts in 2023 producing an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.12. The veteran has an elite strikeout rate of 32.2% with 10.6% walks. Ground balls sit for 44.9% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings.
Ohtani 10-2 to the under facing teams averaging 0.9 home runs or fewer per game and 14-5 to the under as a favorite of -150 or greater. Los Angeles 11-2 to the under at home against the National League. Pittsburgh past seven games hitting .209. Play Pittsburgh and Los Angeles under 8.
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Astros at Athletics—Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez has eighteen starts on the season producing an ERA of 2.76 with WHIP of 1.07. The lefthander strikes out 27.4% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 54.6% with 0.69 home runs per nine innings.
J.P. Sears to start for Oakland. Sears in nineteen starts an ERA of 3.99 with WHIP of 1.02. The lefthander strikes out 23.4% with 5.4% walks. Ground balls served at 27.1% with 1.78 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.94 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
As this series began the Astros had won nine of ten against the Athletics with eight wins by two runs or greater. Oakland scored three runs or fewer in all nine losses.
Valdez faced Oakland twice this season allowing one earned runs with 12 strikeouts in fifteen innings winning both games by two runs or greater. Astros are hitting .280 against lefthanders and averaging 5.7 runs per game. Play Houston on the run line -1.5 runs at -140.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 7/21/2023
Blue Jays at Mariners—Yusei Kikuchi to start for Toronto. Kikuchi has nineteen starts on the year with an ERA of 4.13 and WHIP of 1.28. The lefthander fans 24.3% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 37% with 2.02 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 5.17 which suggests a rise in ERA should form hold.
Bryce Miller to start for Seattle. Miller in twelve starts has an ERA of 3.66 with WHIP of 0.97. The rookie righthander deals 23.1% strikeouts with 5.2% walks. Grounders sit at 33.3% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings.
Mariners have won eight of ten against the Blue Jays. Kikuchi past three starts allowed eleven runs in fourteen innings. Mariners 53-37 at home when lined between +125 and -125.
Tough spot for Toronto facing a cross country flight with no rest day. Mariners face no travel in this spot plus extra rest after the day game on Thursday. Miller has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts. Play Seattle -119.
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