Nick Lagouretos is back with a three-pack of free MLB picks for Wednesday, July 8, and this card is built entirely on the moneyline. Nick likes three home teams and home underdogs he believes are live to win outright, leaning on strong starting pitching, hot offenses, and favorable July trends. Here is the full breakdown of all three of his best bets.
The theme running through Nick’s card is backing the club with the clearer edge on the mound or the hotter bats, and in two of the three spots he is happy to take a team at home where the matchup tilts his way. Let’s walk through each play and the reasoning behind it.
Pick One: Rays Moneyline Over the Yankees
Nick’s first play is the Tampa Bay Rays at home against the New York Yankees, and the pitching matchup is the centerpiece. Tampa Bay sends out Shane McClanahan, who has been elite in his home ballpark with a 5-1 record and a sparkling 2.21 ERA. That is front-line production in a spot where the Rays are tough to beat.
On the other side, Gerrit Cole has been scuffling. He has surrendered eleven runs across his last three starts and has been particularly vulnerable on the road, carrying a 4.87 ERA away from the Bronx. When an ace is leaking runs and pitching in a hostile environment, the edge shifts toward the home club.
The team form reinforces it. The Yankees have gone cold at 2-8 over their last ten games, while the Rays have been the best home team in baseball this season. Nick’s read is straightforward: take Tampa Bay to win this one at home, where McClanahan and the Rays’ home-field dominance give them the clear advantage.
Pick Two: Nationals Moneyline Over the Astros
Nick’s second pick is the Washington Nationals at home in a bounce-back spot against the Houston Astros. The reason is the red-hot arm Washington has going: Griffin has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately, allowing one run or less in each of his last six starts. That is an exceptional run of form.
Houston counters with Spencer Arrighetti, who has been trending the wrong way, giving up four or more runs in four of his last six outings. The contrast between a locked-in Washington starter and a struggling Houston arm is the heart of Nick’s play, and it points squarely at the Nationals.
The bats add to the case. Washington owns one of the best offenses in baseball, while Houston has been among the worst against left-handed pitching during the month of July. With a dominant lefty on the mound and a potent home lineup behind him, Nick takes the Nationals to win this one at home.
Pick Three: Marlins Moneyline as Home Underdogs Over the Mariners
Nick’s third and final pick is the Miami Marlins as home underdogs against the Seattle Mariners, and this one is about riding a hot team for plus money. Miami has been rolling with four consecutive wins, a stretch in which the Marlins have piled up 34 total runs. That is an offense in rhythm.
The wrinkle is that Miami is going with a bullpen game, but Nick is not scared off. The Marlins rank top ten in baseball in bullpen ERA, and they have been the fifth-best team against right-handed pitching in July, while Seattle has been second to last against righties in the same span. That matchup edge is significant.
Seattle’s George Kirby has also been shaky, allowing three or more runs in six of his last eight starts. With Miami swinging hot bats, owning a strong bullpen, and holding a clear edge against right-handed pitching, Nick likes the Marlins on the moneyline for plus money even in a bullpen-game spot.
How Nick Is Playing the Card
All three of Nick’s plays are straight moneylines, which keeps the card clean and easy to follow. Two of the three, the Rays and Nationals, are home favorites where Nick trusts the starting pitcher, and the third, the Marlins, is a home underdog offering plus-money value on a team that is simply playing better baseball right now.
Bettors who want to combine them can build a small parlay across the three moneylines for a bigger payout, though Nick presents them as individual free picks. Straight singles keep the variance lower and let each thesis stand on its own, which is the more conservative way to attack a three-game card.
Risk Factors to Keep in Mind
Every moneyline carries risk, and this card is no exception. Gerrit Cole is still a talented arm capable of a bounce-back, so the Rays play is not without danger even with his recent struggles. A vintage Cole outing would flip the first pick in a hurry.
The Marlins pick comes with the built-in uncertainty of a bullpen game, where one cold reliever can undo an early lead. And while Griffin has been outstanding, no pitcher is immune to an off night. Nick’s edges are real, but these are lean-and-value plays rather than locks, so bankroll management matters.
Final Word on Nick’s July 8 Picks
Nick Lagouretos rolls out three moneyline best bets for July 8: the Rays at home behind a dominant McClanahan against a struggling Cole, the Nationals at home with red-hot Griffin facing a slumping Astros lineup, and the Marlins as live home underdogs riding a four-game heater and a bullpen edge against Seattle.
Each pick is anchored in a concrete edge, whether it is pitching form, offensive momentum, or a favorable platoon matchup in July. As always, treat these as free selections to consider rather than guarantees, and wager responsibly within your limits.
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The Bottom Line
The through-line across Nick’s card is backing the team with the clearer advantage on the mound or at the plate. The Rays and Nationals are home favorites with the better starter, and the Marlins are a hot home dog with a matchup and bullpen edge that Nick believes the price undervalues.
For bettors looking to follow along, the moneyline format keeps things simple: three teams Nick trusts to win their games outright on July 8. Consider the plays, weigh the risks, and stake them at a level that fits your own approach.
Reading the Pitching Edges Across the Card
What ties Nick’s three plays together is a clear starting-pitching or matchup advantage in each spot, and that is the most repeatable edge in baseball handicapping. Backing the club whose starter is in better form, or whose lineup holds a decisive platoon edge, is a sounder foundation than chasing a hunch, and all three of these picks are built on that principle.
In the Rays spot, it is McClanahan’s home dominance against a road-weary Cole. In Washington, it is Griffin’s six-start run of stinginess against a fading Arrighetti. In Miami, it is the bullpen and right-handed-pitching edge against a shaky Kirby. Different mechanisms, same underlying logic, which is why Nick is comfortable presenting them as a cohesive card.
July Trends and Situational Notes
The month-of-July splits do a lot of heavy lifting here. Houston being among the worst teams against left-handed pitching in July lines up perfectly with Griffin on the mound, and Seattle sitting second to last against right-handers in the same window is exactly why Miami’s righty-heavy attack is dangerous. Nick leans on those recent, month-specific numbers rather than stale season-long averages.
Home field is another common thread. Two of the three picks are home teams, and the third, Miami, is a home underdog, which means Nick is siding with the club hitting in the bottom of the ninth in every spot. That is a subtle but real edge, especially for teams playing well at home like the league-best Rays.
Finally, momentum matters in baseball more than some bettors admit. The Marlins riding a four-game winning streak with 34 runs, the Yankees slumping at 2-8, and Washington in a favorable bounce-back spot all feed into Nick’s reads. Form is not everything, but paired with a pitching or matchup edge, it strengthens the case for each play.
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