WNBA July 4 Betting Preview and Lineup Report
Saturday’s WNBA card features two matchups with very different profiles. Golden State visits Atlanta in an early national window, while Portland and Seattle close the slate in a late Western Conference meeting.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries | +4.5 | +150 | 161.5 |
| Atlanta Dream | -3.5 | -162 | 161.5 |
| Portland Fire | +1.5 | +105 | 166.5 |
| Seattle Storm | +1.5 | -105 | 167.5 |
Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream
Start Time and TV
Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream tips at 1:00 PM ET from Gateway Center Arena. TV: CBS and Paramount+.
Injuries
Golden State injuries: A. Prechtel is game-time decision. Miela Sowah is game-time decision.
Atlanta injuries: Aaliyah Nye is game-time decision. Amy Okonkwo is game-time decision. J. Sherrod is game-time decision. Brionna Jones is out.
Expected Lineups
Golden State expected lineup: Veronica Burton, Cecilia Zandalasini, Gabby Williams, Kayla Thornton and Kiah Stokes.
Atlanta expected lineup: Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, Rhyne Howard, Angel Reese and Naz Hillmon.
Last Game Results
Golden State enters off a 76-67 win over New York, improving to 13-7. The Valkyries shot 43.1% from the field and 25.0% from three-point range, while holding New York to 40.4% overall and 36.0% from three.
Atlanta enters off an 81-76 loss at Washington, falling to 12-8. The Dream shot 37.0% from the field and 23.0% from three-point range, while Washington shot 55.0% overall and 56.0% from three.
Leading Scorers
Golden State is led by Gabby Williams at 15.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Janelle Salaun adds 12.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game.
Atlanta is led by Rhyne Howard at 18.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Allisha Gray adds 18.3 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.
Efficiency and Matchup Analysis
Golden State brings the stronger defensive identity into this matchup. The Valkyries average 82.8 points, 33.5 rebounds, 18.3 assists and only 10.6 turnovers per game. Their profile is built on ball security, defensive pressure and enough three-point volume to create spacing even when the half-court offense stalls.
Atlanta has the higher scoring ceiling at 87.7 points per game, with 34.6 rebounds, 19.7 assists and 9.6 steals. The Dream can pressure the ball, win extra possessions and attack through Howard, Gray and Reese, but the injury absence of Brionna Jones keeps the frontcourt rotation thinner.
The key handicap is pace versus defensive control. Atlanta wants to create turnovers and push offense through its guards, while Golden State wants to shorten the game, defend without breaking and keep Burton in control of possession quality.
Game Summary
This is a strength-on-strength matchup between Atlanta’s higher-end offensive talent and Golden State’s top-tier defensive profile. The Valkyries have been reliable at limiting paint touches and forcing opponents into tougher shot quality, while Atlanta’s shot creation gives the Dream more ways to manufacture offense late in the clock.
The Pick
Golden State offensive efficiency: 104.2. Defensive efficiency: 99.3. Net rating: +4.9.
Atlanta offensive efficiency: 104.5. Defensive efficiency: 101.1. Net rating: +3.3.
Valkyries has played only seven road games and have shot poorly in those games at 39.3%. Dream returns home after a bad road trip where they lost all four games. In the past five games the Valkyries are shooting 41.5% with 28.9% from three while giving up 36% from beyond the arc. At home the Dream is shooting 46% with 38% from three and putting up 93.6 points per game. Atlanta is outscoring teams at home by 9.5 points per game. Play Atlanta -3.5.
Portland Fire at Seattle Storm
Start Time and TV
Portland Fire at Seattle Storm tips at 9:00 PM ET. TV: WNBA League Pass.
Injuries
Portland injuries: Sania Feagin is game-time decision. Karlie Samuelson is game-time decision.
Featured Analysts & Cappers
Read free daily matchup breakdowns and track documented betting records.
Seattle injuries: Taina Mair is game-time decision.
Expected Lineups
Portland expected lineup: Carla Leite, Sarah Ashlee Barker, Emily Engstler, Bridget Carleton and Megan Gustafson.
Seattle expected lineup: Natisha Hiedeman, Jordan Horston, Flau’jae Johnson, Awa Fam and Dominique Malonga.
Last Game Results
Portland enters off a 124-123 four-overtime loss at Washington, falling to 8-12. The Fire shot 44.6% from the field and 35.9% from three-point range, while Washington shot 42.9% overall and 34.5% from three.
Seattle enters off a 90-67 loss at Phoenix, falling to 5-16. The Storm shot 42.0% from the field and 32.0% from three-point range, while Phoenix shot 45.0% overall and 42.0% from three.
Leading Scorers
Portland is led by Carla Leite at 15.1 points, 2.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. Bridget Carleton adds 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.
Seattle is led by Dominique Malonga at 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Natisha Hiedeman adds 15.5 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game.
Efficiency and Matchup Analysis
Portland plays faster and produces more offense than Seattle, averaging 84.7 points, 29.0 rebounds, 20.2 assists and 14.7 turnovers per game. The Fire can create pace, but the defensive efficiency remains the concern, especially when opponents get downhill or force the Fire into extended defensive possessions.
Seattle averages 80.4 points, 31.9 rebounds, 19.0 assists and 14.0 turnovers per game. The Storm have enough interior scoring through Malonga and Fam to challenge Portland’s frontcourt, but consistency has been the issue. Seattle needs cleaner guard play and better perimeter shot quality to avoid another stalled offensive night.
The pace profile points toward a more open game than the first matchup on the card. Portland’s offense has more rhythm through Leite, Barker and Carleton, while Seattle’s edge is size, rebounding structure and interior efficiency if Malonga controls the paint.
Game Summary
Portland brings the better scoring profile, but Seattle has the more stable defensive number and the frontcourt pieces to punish Portland inside. The Fire must protect the ball after a heavy-minute overtime game, while Seattle needs to turn half-court touches into higher-percentage looks instead of settling early in the clock.
The Pick
Portland offensive efficiency: 100.2. Defensive efficiency: 110.5. Net rating: -10.2.
Seattle offensive efficiency: 98.6. Defensive efficiency: 103.7. Net rating: -5.1.
Portland has lost eight of their past ten games with poor defensive play. Storm has covered their past six games at home. It is six straight road losses for the Fire. Portland in their past five games are shooting 40.7% and surrendering 52% with 41% from three. They are giving up 109 points per game in this span. Storm in this period have shot 48.1% with 39.1% from three and defending the three-point line well. Play Seattle -2.5.
