Free MLB Picks For Today 5/17/2024
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Pirates at Cubs—Paul Skenes to start for Pittsburgh. Skenes in his MLB debut allowed three earned runs with seven strikeouts in four innings. He was a first-round pick in 2023 out of LSU with seven starts in Triple A this season with an ERA of 0.99, WHIP 0.92 and striking out 45 batters in 27 1/3rd innings. Kyle Hendricks to start for Chicago. Hendricks has six starts with an ERA of 10.04 and WHIP of 1.92. The veteran strikes out 16.7% with 8.7% walks. Grounders dealt at 46.2% with 3.12 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Pirates are hitting .211 in their first 29 games against right-handed starters, losing 19 of those games with a -10.3-unit loss. Hendricks in his last start held the Pirates to one run over five innings. It is the second time Chicago has seen Skenes and they had success against him. The Cubs have won 13 of their first 19 at home. Pittsburgh is 5-13 when lined at -100 to -150 this season with a -10.8-unit loss. Chicago is 22-14 facing right-handed starters this year with a +10.8-unit return. Play Chicago -110.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Nationals at Phillies—Jake Irvin to start for Washington. Irvin in eight starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 3.55 with WHIP of 1.09. The righthander fans 19.6% with 4.3% walks. Grounders served at 43.2% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. Zack Wheeler will start for Philadelphia. Wheeler has nine starts with an ERA of 2.53 with WHIP of 0.99. The veteran has an elite K rate of 30% with 7.4% walks. Grounders come in at 47% with 0.68 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Phillies bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.70 and the Nationals on the road have a pen ERA of 3.16. The team record behind Wheeler in night games is 10-14 with a -10.9-unit loss. Washington is 28-27 when lined at +175 to +250 the past two seasons with a +28.8-unit return. Play Washington +226.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Mariners at Orioles—Byrce Miller will start for Seattle. Miller has eight starts in 2024 dealing with an ERA of 2.66 with WHIP of 0.95. The second year righthander fans 27.9% with 8.2% walks. Grounders sit at 35.9% with 1.33 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.82 suggests a rise in ERA based on form. John Means to start for Baltimore. Means has two starts in the year producing an ERA of 3.09 with WHIP of 0.77. He was sidelined for most of the past two seasons with an elbow injury. Th lefthander has 76 career appearances with an ERA of 3.72, WHIP of 10.5 and striking out 329 batters in 392 innings.
The Pick:
The Mariners are batting .215 against left-handed starters going under in 9 of their 11 games. Both bullpens are in good form this season. The Past seven games the Orioles are hitting .213. Play Seattle and Baltimore under.
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
White Sox at Yankees—Mike Clevinger to start for Chicago. Clevinger in his two starts on the year delivers an ERA of 5.40 with WHIP of 2.10. The veteran signed his contract in early April missing the spring. Last year the righthander had an ERA of 3.77 with WHIP of 1.23. He had a strikeout mark of 20% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls come in at 33.3% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. Nestor Cortes to start for New York. Cortes in nine starts has an ERA of 4.02 and WHIP of 1.08. The left-handed fans 23.4% with 5% walks. Ground balls sit at 30.1% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Chicago is batting .210 against left-handed starters. The New York bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.00. The White Sox pen on the road has an ERA of 3.77 in their 20 games. The White Sox are 47-33 to the under when a road underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons. Play Chicago and New York under 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Rays at Blue Jays—Tyler Alexander will start for Tampa Bay. Alexander in eight appearances on the season deals with an ERA of 5.45 with WHIP of 1.36. The lefthander strikes out 19.1% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls delivered at 30.4% with 2.04 home runs per nine innings. Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt in eight starts on the year deals an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.55. The veteran strikes out 21.3% with 10.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 40.8% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Blue Jays are averaging 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters the season. Their bullpen has an ERA of 5.84 at home. The Rays put up five runs in five innings against Bassitt earlier in the season. Play Tampa Bay.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Twins at Guardians—Simeon Woods Richardson to start for Minnesota. Woods Richardson in five starts on the year deals an ERA of 3.24 with WHIP of 1.24. The righthander is fanning 22.1% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 32% with 0.72 home runs per nine innings. Triston McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie has eight starts, dealing with an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 1.38. The righty strikes out 19.9% with 13.6% walks. Grounders served at 35.3% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Guardians have a bullpen ERA of 1.99 in their 18 home games this season. They are hitting .207 in their past seven games. Minnesota is batting .226 against divisional opponents this year. Cleveland is 43-19 to the under against the divisional the past two seasons. Play Minnesota and Cleveland under 8.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Mets at Marlins—Christian Scott to start for New York. Scott in his two starts has an ERA of 2.84 with WHIP of 1.11. The righthander was a fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida who has put up good numbers in the minors. Jesus Luzardo to start for Miami. Luzardo has six starts with an ERA of 5.97 with WHIP of 1.33. The lefthander fans 26.3% with 10.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 34.9% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.27 suggests a drop in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
On the road the Mets are putting up 5.4 runs per game and hitting .266. The Marlins have lost 17 of 23 at home with a -12-unit loss. They bat .204 in night games, losing 18 of those 23 games. Miami is 1-9 at home when lined at +125 to -125 this season. Play New York -110.
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Padres at Braves—Matt Waldron to start for San Diego. Waldron in eight starts on the year carries an ERA of 5.49 with WHIP of 1.45. The righthander has a strikeout mark of 19.9% with 8.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 36.3% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings. Max Fried to start for Atlanta. Fried in eight starts has an ERA of 3.57 with WHIP of 1.04. The lefthander strikes out 20.4% with 9.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 62.9% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
On the road the Padres are hitting .282 and putting up 5.4 runs per game, winning 12 of their 20 games. In their past seven games the Braves are putting up 3.7 runs per game. San Diego is 10-3 in road night games this season with a +8.1-unit return. Play San Diego +187.
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Athletics at Royals—Kyle Muller to start for Oakland. Muller appeared in ten games in relief on the year dealing with an ERA of 3.90 with WHIP of 1.16. The lefthander is striking out 20.2% with 5.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 45.2% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Cole Ragans is the starter for Kansas City. Ragans has nine starts with an ERA of 4.22 with WHIP of 1.29. The lefthander fans 27.3% with 7.7% walks. Ground balls come in at 43.5% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Oakland bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.81 in their first 22 games. They are batting .202 on the road. The Past seven games KC is batting .232. Play Oakland and Kansas City under.
PART 2
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Angels at Rangers—Tyler Anderson to start for Los Angeles. Anderson in eight starts on the year provides an ERA of 2.92 with WHIP of 1.14. The lefthander is striking out 17.9% with 9.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 35.2% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.44 suggests a rising ERA should form hold. Andrew Heaney will start for Texas. Heaney has eight starts with an ERA of 4.39 with WHIP of 1.17. The lefty fans 22.5% with 5.2% walks. Grounders come in at 35.2% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is batting .278 and putting up 5.6 runs per game against the seven left-handed starters they have faced this season, winning five of those games. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.58 and WHIP of 0.98. Texas is batting .214 against left handers putting up 3.7 runs per game. Texas is 29-31 facing teams with a .380-win percentage or lower the past three seasons with a -15.6 unit loss. Play Los Angeles +147.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Brewers at Astros—Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta, in eight starts on the year carries an ERA of 3.63 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander has an elite K rate of 31.9% with 8.8% walks. Ground balls served at 37% with 0.81 home runs per nine innings. Hunter Brown is the starter for Houston. Brown appeared in eight games on the campaign produces an ERA of 7.79 and WHIP of 2.01. The righty strikes out 22.8% with 11.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 48.5% with 1.67 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Brewers in their past seven games are hitting .298 and putting up 6.6 runs per game winning five of those games. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.81 in their 22 games winning 14. The team record behind Brown is 6-13 at home the past two seasons with a -15.2-unit loss. Milwaukee is 18-11 on the road against the American League the past two seasons with a +10.5-unit return. Play Milwaukee -105.
Boston Red Sox vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Red Sox at Cardinals—Brayan Bello to start for Boston. Bello in six starts on the year posts an ERA of 3.13 with WHIP of 1.07. The righthander fans 20.9% with 7% walks. Ground balls delivered at 51.1% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.40 suggests a rise in ERA should form hold. Kyle Gibson to start for St Louis. Gibson has eight starts carrying an ERA of 3.67 with WHIP of 1.20. The veteran is striking out 19.9% with 10% walks. Grounders sit at 47.8% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Boston bullpen on the road has an ERA of 1.89 in their 21 games winning 12 of those games. St Louis is batting .208 at home losing 11 of their 17 games. The team record behind Bello is 12-4 on the road the past two seasons. The Cardinals are 67-85 against right-handed starters the past two seasons with a -22.3-unit loss. Play Boston -113.
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Tigers at Diamondbacks—Tarik Skubal to start for Detroit. Skubal in eight starts in 2024 posts and ERA of 2.02 with WHIP of 0.86. The lefthander has an elite K rate of 31.6% with 4.2% walks. Grounders dealt at 43.8% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings. Ryne Nelson is the starter for Arizona. Nelson has six starts with an ERA of 5.33 with WHIP of 1.70. The righthander fans 16.4% with 5.2% walks. Grounders sit at 42.9% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Past seven games the Tigers are batting .211 putting up 3.3 runs per game. Arizona is batting .275 against left handers posting 6.3 runs per game in their 17 games. Play Arizona +124.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Reds at Dodgers—Frankie Montas will start for Cincinnati. Montas has seven starts on the year dealing with an ERA of 4.20 and WHIP of 1.37. The righthander has a K rate of 18.2% with 9.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.3% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings. James Paxton is the starter for Los Angeles. Paxton in seven starts with an ERA of 2.58 and WHIP of 1.41. The lefthander has seen his strikeouts drop to 13.7% with 14.9% walks. Grounders served at 35.4% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cincinnati has seen improvement at the plate the past seven games, hitting .264 and putting up 4.1 runs per game. Los Angeles is batting .269 against right handers posting 5.7 runs per game. The Dodgers are 14-5 to the over when favored at home by -150 or greater this season. Play Cincinnati and Los Angeles over 8.5.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/17/2024
Rockies at Giants—Ryan Feltner to start for Colorado. Feltner has eight starts in the season producing an ERA of 5.20 with WHIP of 1.42. The righthander strikes out 20.5% with 6.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.5% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.70 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers. Kyle Harrison to start for San Francisco. Harrison in nine starts has an ERA of 3.42 with WHIP of 1.26. The lefthander fans 21.5% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 40.6% with 0.90 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Colorado is batting .230 on the road this season. San Francisco is batting .232 at home going under in 14 of their 21 games there. San Francisco is 26-11 to the under when a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons. The Rockies are 39-25 to the under against left-handed starters the past two seasons. Play Colorado and San Francisco under 7.5.