Free MLB Picks For Today 5/15/2024
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Blue Jays at Orioles— Chris Bassitt to start for Toronto. Bassitt has eight starts in the season dealing with an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.55. The righthander fans 21.3% with 10.6% walks. Ground balls served at 40.8% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings. Kyle Bradish to start for Baltimore. Bradish in two starts allowed two earned runs with 14 strike outs in 9 2/3rd innings. He returned after a UCL sprain that sidelined him. Last year the righty had 30 starts with an ERA of 2.83 and WHIP of 1.04. The Orioles starter struck out 25% with 6.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 49.2% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Baltimore is batting .229 in their night games. The Blue Jays are batting .217 on the road. The Orioles bullpen has performed well at home. Bassitt is 17-7 to the under in night games the past two seasons. The Orioles are now 21-9 to the under at home against the division the past two seasons. Play Toronto and Baltimore under 7.5.
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Marlins at Tigers—Trevor Rogers to start for Miami. Rogers, in eight starts on the campaign posts an ERA of 6.57 with WHIP of 1.86. The lefthander has seen his K’s drop to 17.2% with 9.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 50.4% with 1.22 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.59 suggests a drop in ERA based on form. Casey Mize to start for Detroit. Mize has seven starts, with an ERA of 3.58 with WHIP of 1.30. The righthander strikes out 16% with 5.6% walks. Grounders sit at 49.2% with 0.72 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Tigers bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.39. Detroit is batting .215 in Day Games. The Marlins do a better job putting up runs against right-handed starters. Play Miami +147.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Pirates at Brewers—Martin Perez to start for Pittsburgh. Perez in eight starts on the year deals an ERA of 3.60 with WHIP of 1.40. The left hander fans 18.6% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.5% with 0.60 home runs per nine innings. Robert Gasser to start for Milwaukee. Gasser in his MLB debut allowed no runs with four strikeouts and two hits in six innings. A 2021 draft pick out of Houston that has put up strong strikeout numbers in the minors.
The Pick:
The Past seven games the Brewers are hitting .285 and putting up 6 runs per game. Pittsburgh is hitting .229 the past seven games. Pittsburgh is 31-55 when lined between +125 and -175 the past two seasons with a -23.5-unit loss. The Brewers are 35-17 at home when lined between -100 and -150 the past two seasons with a +13.5-unit return. Play Milwaukee -137.
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Nationals at White Sox—Patrick Corbin to start for Washington. Corbin in eight starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 5.91 with WHIP of 1.78. The lefthander is striking out 14.8% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46.9% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.11 suggests a rise in ERA based on form. Garrett Crochet to start for Chicago. Crochet in nine starts has an ERA of 4.63 with WHIP of 0.99. The lefty has an elite K rate of 34.2% with 4.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 43.8% with 1.54 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Chicago is batting .181 against left-handed starters. The Washington bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.43 in their 22 games. Washington is batting .253 against left handers putting up 5.2 runs per game and returning +6.1 units in those 12 games. The Nationals are 48-54 as an underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a +31.6-unit return. Play Washington +124.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Reds at Diamondbacks—Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott has eight starts on the year producing an ERA of 3.35 with WHIP of 1.19. The second-year lefthander is striking out 20.8% with 6.7% walks. Grounders sit at 31.0% with 1.67 home runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt in eight starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.60 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander fans 21.1% with 4% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.7% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Reds are hitting .217 on the road where they have a bullpen ERA of 4.70. Arizona is batting .278 against left-handed starters putting up 6.6 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are 71-52 facing an NL team with an OBP of .325 of lower the past two seasons with a +19.6-unit return. Play Arizona -136.
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Royals at Mariners—Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh has six starts in the season dealing with an ERA of 2.53 with WHIP of 1.03. The righthander strikes out 18.5% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 37.6% with 0.56 home runs per nine innings. Bryan Woo will start for Seattle. Woo in his 2024 debut allowed no runs with three strikeouts in 4 1/3rd innings at home to Oakland. He was sidelined with a forearm injury. The righty had 18 starts in his rookie campaign with an ERA of 4.21 with WHIP of 1.21. He struck out 25.1% with 8.4% walks. Grounders sit at 40.3% with 1.33 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Mariners are batting .201 in Day Games. Their bullpen has an ERA of 3.11 at home going under in 14 of 22. The Royals bat .223 on the road. Seattle is 41-22 in home Day Games the past three seasons. Kansas City is 18-8 to the under facing an AL team with a slugging percentage of .410 or worse this season. Play Seattle and Kansas City under 7.5.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Rockies at Padres—Austin Gomber to start for Colorado. Gomber in eight starts on the year delivers an ERA of 3.43 with WHIP of 1.25. The lefthander strikes out 16.1% with 8.1% walks. Grounders served at 45% with 1.61 home runs per nine innings. Michael King to start for San Diego. King appeared in nine games delivering an ERA of 3.67 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander fans 25.6% with 11.4% walks. Grounders dealt at 41.2% with 1.84 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Padres are hitting .224 at home, losing 15 of 25. Colorado in their past seven games is hitting .289 and putting up 5 runs per game. The team record behind King is 3-10 as a favorite of -110 or higher in his career with a -11.9-unit loss. The Padres are 87-72 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the past two seasons with a -27.7-unit loss. The San Diego fade continues following their series home win against the Dodgers. Play Colorado +205.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Mets at Phillies—Joey Lucchesi to start for New York. He failed to make the big club out of spring training. Last year he had nine starts with an ERA of 2.89 and WHIP of 1.31. His K rate was 16.4% with 8.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 45.3% with 0.77 home runs per nine innings. He had seven starts in Triple A this year posting an ERA of 2.58 with WHIP of 1.31 striking out 28 batters with 16 walks in 38 1/3rd innings. Ranger Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez has eight starts with an ERA of 1.50 with WHIP of 0.72. The lefthander is fanning 28.1% with 4.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 57.7% with 0.67 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Past seven games New York is batting .229. In this period the Phillies are batting .277 and putting up 6.6 runs per game. The team record behind Suarez is 8-0 to the run line this season with a +9.1-unit return. New York is 21-39 to the run line against left-handed starters the past two seasons with a -20.7 unit loss. Play Philadelphia on run line -1.5 runs at +110.
PART 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Rays at Red Sox—Taj Bradley to start for Tampa Bay. Bradley in his 2024 debut allowed one earned run with seven strikeouts in six innings at home to the Yankees. He suffered a pectoral strain in the spring. Last year the right hander appeared in 23 games with an ERA of 5.59 and WHIP of 1.39. He struck out 28% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 36.6% with 1.98 home runs per nine innings. Tanner Houck to start for Boston. Houck has eight starts with an ERA of 2.24 and WHIP of 0.97. The righty strikes out 23.9% with 3.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 55.9% with minimal home run damage.
The Pick:
The Past seven games the Red Sox are batting .218 and putting up 2.6 runs per game. Boston is 31-41 at home against right-handed starters the past two seasons with a -18-unit loss. Play Tampa Bay +113.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Cubs at Braves—Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad has eight starts in 2024 carrying an ERA of 1.70 with WHIP of 1.06. The righthander is fanning 20.5% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 44.1% with limited home run damage. Charlie Morton to start for Atlanta. Morton in seven starts posts an ERA of 3.14 with WHIP of 1.05. The veteran has a K rate of 23.8% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 46.8% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Chicago in their past seven games is hitting .224. The Atlanta bullpen at home has an ERA of 3.32. Atlanta is 18-6 to the under against right-handed starters this season. Chicago is 60-32 to the under facing a starter who has a WHIP of 1.25 or lower the past three seasons. Play Chicago and Atlanta under 9.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Yankees at Twins—Marcus Stroman to start for New York. Stroman in eight starts on the year delivers an ERA of 3.80 with WHIP of 1.50. The veteran strikes out 21.4% with 11.8% walks. Grounders come in at 55.7% with 1.48 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.08 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Pablo Lopez is the starter for Minnesota. Lopez has eight starts with an ERA of 3.89 with WHIP of 0.98. The righthander has an elite K mark of 31.6% with 4.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 43.1% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The past seven games the Yankees are hitting .280 and putting up 5.9 runs per game. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.48 winning 15 of 24. New York is 22-9 facing right-handed starters this season. Minnesota is 5-17 facing a team with a .620-win percentage of greater the past two seasons with a -11.6-unit loss. Play New York +120.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Guardians at Rangers—Carlos Carrasco to start for Cleveland. Carrasco has eight starts on the year dealing an ERA of 5.36 with WHIP of 1.49. The veteran strikes out 17.4% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46% with 1.56 home runs per nine innings. Jon Gray to start for Texas. Gray in nine appearances produces an ERA of 2.36 with WHIP of 1.20. The righthander fans 25.5% with 6.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 40.6% with 0.39 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cleveland bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.71 winning 15 of 25. The Rangers in their past seven games are hitting .237. The Guardians are 68-66 as an underdog of +100 to +150 the past three seasons with a +17.1-unit return. They are 23-12 facing a team that averages seven or greater strikeouts per game this season. Play Cleveland +145.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Athletics at Astros—Aaron Brooks to start for Oakland. The righthander is called up as the Athletics have six starting pitchers on the injured list with two more dealing with ailments. The journeyman has 52 career appearances with an ERA of 6.55 and WHIP of 1.50 striking out 130 batters with 34 homers allowed in 180 innings. He has 8 Triple A starts this season with an ERA of 4.57 and WHIP of 1.44 striking out 32 batters in 43 1/3rd innings. Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez has five starts with an ERA of 3.64 and WHIP of 1.35. The lefthander fans 18.9% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 61.6% with 0.61 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Oakland bullpen on the road has an ERA 2.85 in their 21 games. They are averaging 5.1 runs per game in their past seven. They hit better and score more runs against left-handed starters showing a +1.8 unit return in their thirteen games. The team record behind Valdez is 7-15 when favored at home by -110 or higher the past two seasons with a -17.7-unit loss. The Athletics are 8-5 when favored by +175 to +250 this season with a +11.3-unit return. Play Oakland +210.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Cardinals at Angels—Lance Lynn to start for St Louis. Lynn has eight starts on the season dealing with an ERA of 3.79 and WHIP of 1.41. The veteran strikes out 21.3% with 10.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 40.3% with 1.12 home runs per nine innings. Griffin Canning starts for Los Angeles. Canning in eight starts has an ERA of 5.75 with WHIP of 1.35. The righthander has seen his strikeouts drop to 16.4% with 8.5% walks. Grounders are 33.8% with 1.33 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Los Angeles bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.78 in their 21 games where they have lost 16. St Louis in their past seven games is hitting .267 and putting up 4.6 runs per game. The Angels are 1-13 at home when lined between +125 to -125 this season. Play St Louis -119.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/15/2024
Dodgers at Giants—Ryan Yarbrough to start for Los Angeles. Yarbrough appeared in 12 games on the season dealing with an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 0.73. The lefthander fans only 11.7% with 4.2% walks. Grounders served at 39.6% with 0.85 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.24 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers. Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb has nine starts with an ERA of 3.38 and WHIP of 1.39. The righthander is striking out 18.6% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 59.8% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is hitting .271 against right-handed starters putting up 5.9 runs per game. Their bullpen in their 28 on the road has an ERA of 2.10 winning 17 of those games. The Giants are averaging 3.3 runs per game against left-handed starters, losing seven of their eleven games. Their bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.08. The team record behind Yarbrough is 16-5 on the road in his career with a +11.2-unit return. The Dodgers are 54-28 when favored by -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a +18.9 unit return and 104-43 facing an NL team hitting .245 or worse the past three seasons with a +27.4-unit return. Play Los Angeles -136.