Free MLB Picks For Today 5/12/2024
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Diamondbacks at Orioles—Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen has seven starts on the current campaign dealing with an ERA of 2.84 with WHIP of 1.13. The righthander is striking out 26.5% with 7.7% walks. Ground balls sit at 41.6% with 0.95 home runs per nine innings. Dean Kremer to start for Baltimore. Kremer in seven starts has an ERA of 3.57 with WHIP of 0.97. The righty fans 23.1% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls dealt at 44.6% with 1.79 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.70 suggests a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Arizona is batting .192 in their seven interleague games. The Baltimore bullpen in their 20 home games has an ERA of 3.39. The team record behind Kremer is 16-5 when lined between +125 and -125 for a +11.9-unit return. The Diamondbacks are 12-27 facing an AL team allowing 4.4 runs per game or fewer the past two seasons. Play Baltimore -122.
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Nationals at Red Sox—MacKenzie Gore to start for Washington. Gore has seven starts in 2024 posting an ERA of 3.44 with WHIP of 1.47. The lefthander is striking out 28.2% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls sit at 35.9% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. Brayan Bello to start for Boston. Bello has five starts in the season with an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.05. The righthander has a K mark of 23.6% with 6.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 51.3% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.04 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
The Red Sox are hitting .216 against the 11 left-handed starters they have faced. Their bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.32. The Nationals in their 20 road games have a bullpen ERA of 3.33 winning 12 of those games for a +11.9-unit return. Play Washington +129.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Cubs at Pirates—Jameson Taillon to start for Chicago. Taillon has four starts in the year producing an ERA of 1.13 with WHIP of 0.88. The veteran strikes out 17% with 5.3% walks. Grounders dealt at 45.8% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.51 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Bailey Falter to start for Pittsburgh. Falter has seven starts carrying an ERA of 4.34 with WHIP of 1.02. The left hander strikes out 17.6% with 6.1% walks. Grounders served at 33.3% with 1.69 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Pittsburgh is batting .209 against the 26 right-handed starters they have faced losing 17 of those games. The Cubs against left-handed starters are batting .267 and putting up 6.2 runs per game. Play Chicago -110.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Twins at Blue Jays—Bailey Ober to start for Minnesota. Ober has seven starts on the season posting an ERA of 4.42 with WHIP of 1.01. The righthander strikes out 24.3% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 31% with 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Alek Manoah to start for Toronto. Manoah in his 2024 debut allowed six earned runs, four walks and six strikeouts in 4 innings at Washington. He started 19 games last year with an ERA of 5.87 with WHIP of 1.74. The righty struck out 25% with 16.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.5% with 4.50 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Blue Jays bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.21 in their 16 games, going over in 10 of 15. Minnesota is putting up 5.3 runs per game on the road. The Twins are 16-6 to the over when facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher the past two seasons. They are also 29-15 to the over facing teams getting outscored by 1 or greater runs per game the past two seasons. Play Minnesota and Toronto over 8.5.
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Astros at Tigers—Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander has four starts in the 2024 season carrying an ERA of 4.43 with WHIP of 1.39. The veteran is fanning 16% with 10.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 26.5% with 2.01 home runs per nine innings. Jack Flaherty will start for Detroit. Flaherty in seven starts has an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.05. The righthander has an elite K rate of 32.9% with 3.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 43.3% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Detroit is batting .219 against right-handed starters, losing 17 of the 30 against them. Houston is batting .252 against right-handed starters. The Astros are 37-21 on the road when lined at +125 to -125 the past two seasons. Play Houston -117.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Phillies at Marlins—Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler has eight starts in the season producing an ERA of 1.64 with WHIP of 0.89. The righthander has an elite strikeout mark of 32.1% with 6.6% walks. Grounders come in at 46.6% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings. Braxton Garrett to start for Miami. Garrett is making his 2024 debut after a shoulder injury. He had 31 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 3.66 and WHIP of 1.15. The lefty fans 23.7% with 4.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 49.1% with 1.13 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Phillies are scoring 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starters. Their bullpen has performed well on the road. The team behind Garrett is 9-1 to the under when lined at +150 or higher the past three seasons. Play Philadelphia and Miami under 7.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Yankees at Rays—Luis Gil to start for New York. Gil has seven starts on the current campaign deals an ERA of 2.92 with WHIP of 1.14. The righthander strikes out 29.4% with 15.7% walks. Grounders dealt at 36.6% with 0.73 home runs per nine innings. Tyler Alexander to start for Tampa Bay. Alexander has seven appearances with an ERA of 4.96 with WHIP of 1.38. The lefthander fans 20.8% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 30.7% with 1.65 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
New York is batting .234 against left-handed starters and putting up 3.5 runs per game in their 11 games against them. Tampa Bay has seen a surge in hitting and run production the past seven games. Play Tampa Bay +117.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Guardians at White Sox—Logan Allen to start for Cleveland. Allen in eight starts puts up an ERA in 2024 of 6.41 with WHIP of 1.55. The lefthander is striking out 18.9% with 8% walks. Ground balls come in at 43.7% with 2.06 home runs per nine innings. Michael Soroka to start for Chicago. Soroka has eight starts with an ERA of 6.34 with WHIP of 1.59. The righthander fans only 11.6% with 13.4% walks. Grounders sit at 48% with 1.88 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Cleveland bullpen in their 21 road games has an ERA of 2.90. The White Sox are batting .179 against left-handed starters putting up 2.5 runs per game. They are putting up 2.9 runs per game in their 15 Day Games. The Guardians offense is hitting .215 in their past seven games. The Guardians are 42-19 to the under against the division the past two seasons. The White Sox are 27-15 tot eh under in home Day Games the past two seasons. Play Cleveland and Chicago under 9.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Cardinals at Brewers—Miles Mikolas to start for ST Louis. Mikolas in eight starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 6.43 with WHIP of 1.48. The veteran strikes out 17.2% with 3.8% walks. Ground balls dished at 38.8% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings. Bryse Wilson to start for Milwaukee. Wilson has ten appearances with an ERA of 2.40 and WHIP of 0.93. The righty has seen his strikeouts rise to 23.5% with 8.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 39.5% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.27 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
St Louis is 0-6 in the division averaging 2 runs per game and hitting .173. Milwaukee is hitting .267 and putting up 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters where they have won 20 of 32. Play Milwaukee -143.
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Rangers at Rockies—Jose Urena to start for Texas. Urena appeared in 11 games on the campaign deals an ERA of 3.86 with WHIP of 1.29. The righty is striking out 16.5% with 10.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 48.7% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings. Dakota Hudson to start for Colorado. Hudson has seven starts with an ERA of 6.35 with WHIP of 1.79. The righthander strikes out only 12.4% with 13.7% walks. Grounders sit at 58.6% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Rangers in their 21 road games have a bullpen ERA of 7.05. It is now three straight home wins for the Rockies. The Rockies are now 28-23 at home facing a winning team the past two seasons with a +19.2-unit return. Play Colorado +130.
PART 2
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Reds at Giants—Frankie Montas to start for Cincinnati. Montas in six starts on the season delivers an ERA of 3.55 with WHIP of 1.30. The righthander fans 19.4% with 10.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.9% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Kyle Harrison will start for San Francisco. Harrison has eight starts with an ERA of 3.20 with WHIP of 1.22. The lefthander strikes out 21.5% with 6.5% walks. Grounders come in at 42.7% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Reds are batting .197 against left-handed starters. They are averaging 2.3 runs per game in their past seven games. San Francisco is shooting .234 at home. The Giants are 41-20 to the under against right-handed starters at home the past two seasons. They are 13-4 to the over at home on the year. Play Cincinnati and San Francisco under 7.5.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Royals at Angels—Seth Lugo to start for Kansas City. Lugo has eight starts on the year dealing with an ERA of 1.74 with WHIP of 1.01. The veteran has seen his K’s drop to 17.7% with 5.9% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.8% with 0.87 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.76 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers. Patrick Sandoval to start for Los Angeles. Sandoval has eight starts with an ERA of 4.85 with a WHIP of 1.49. The lefthander fans 26% with 9.8% walks. Grounders dealt at 50% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Angels bullpen in their 18 home games has a bullpen ERA of 6.52 losing 13 of those games. Los Angeles is hitting .231 in Day Games losing 12 of 15. The team record behind Sandoval is 3-12 at home the past two seasons with a -10.5-unit loss. Los Angeles is 10-24 facing right-handed starters on the year with a -11.9-unit loss. KC is 12-3 facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher this season with a +9.4-unit return. Play Kansas City -125.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Athletics at Mariners—Alex Wood to start for Oakland. Wood in eight starts on the year deals an ERA of 5.30 with WHIP of 1.74. The lefthander strikes out 18.4% with 10.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37.1% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings. Luis Castillo to start for Seattle. Castillo has eight starts with an ERA of 3.35 and WHIP of 1.12. The righthander is striking out 28.4% with 5.6% walks. Grounders dished at 35.7% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Mariners are hitting .210 against left-handed starters and .196 in Day Games. Oakland bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.28 in their 18 road games where they have won nine. The past seven games the Athletics are putting up 6 runs per game. The Athletics are 8-4 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 this season with a +12.3-unit return. The team record behind Castillo is 28-27 when favored by -150 or higher with a -20.7-unit loss. Play Oakland +198.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Dodgers at Padres—Walker Buehler to start for Los Angeles. Buehler in his 2024 debut allowed three earned runs with four strikeouts and a homer in four innings at home to Miami. He missed 2023 and much of 2022 with Tommy John surgery. Buehler in 116 career appearances has an ERA of 3.04 with WHIP of 1.04 striking out 694 in 642 1/3rd innings. Yu Darvish to start for San Diego. Darvish has seven starts with an ERA of 2.94 and WHIP of 1.10. The veteran fans 21.7% with 8% walks. Grounders sit at 37.9% with 0.53 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Padres are hitting .225 at home where they have lost 13 of 22. The Dodgers in the bullpen have an ERA of 2.22 in their 18 games where they have won 25. They are putting up 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters hitting .273. The team record behind Darvish is 6-11 at home with a -11.8-unit loss. San Diego is 8-23 at home when lined at +125 to -125 the past two seasons with a -17.9-unit loss. The Dodgers are 54-28 when lined between -100 to -150 with a +18.9 unit return the past two seasons. Play Los Angeles -118.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/12/2024
Braves at Mets—Bryce Elder to start for Atlanta. Elder has three starts in the season dealing an ERA of 5.28 with WHIP of 1.76. The righthander fans 14.5% with 11.6% walks. Grounders dished at 59.2% with 1.76 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 6.33 does suggest an even higher ERA based on form. Luis Severino will start for New York. Severino in seven starts posts an ERA of 2.93 with WHIP of 1.17. The veteran strikes out 21.9% with 10.1% walks. Grounders served at 55% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Mets bullpen at home have an ERA of 1.99 in their 21 games. They are hitting .204 at home going under in 14 of those games. The Braves in their past seven games are hitting .207 going under in six of those games. Atlanta is 16-6 to the under against right-handed starters the past two seasons. New York is 30-12 to the under when lined between +125 and -125 the past two seasons. Play Atlanta and New York under 8.