Free MLB Picks For Today 5/10/2024
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Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Astros at Tigers—Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez in four starts in 2024 produces an ERA of 3.97 with WHIP of 1.41. The left hander is striking out 20.4% with 7.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 58.7% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. Casey Mize will start for Detroit. Mize has six starts with an ERA of 3.98 with WHIP of 1.33. The righthander fans 17.3% with 5% walks. Grounders come in at 47.7% with 0.57 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Detroit is batting .262 against lefthanders, putting up 5.7 runs per game on them, and have won six of seven against them. The Astros are 8-16 against right-handed starters this year. Houston is 3-9 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this year. Play Detroit +122.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Cubs at Pirates—Jameson Taillon to start for Chicago. Taillon has four starts on the campaign dealing an ERA of 1.13 with WHIP of 0.88. The veteran has seen his K rate drop to 17% with 5.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 45.8% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.52 does suggest a rise in ERA if form holds. Jared Jones to start for Pittsburgh. Jones in four starts posts an ERA of 2.63 with WHIP of 0.78. The rookie righthander strikes out an elite 33.8% with 3.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 39.6% with 1.54 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Pirates in their past seven games are hitting .174 and putting up 2.3 runs per game. The Cubs are 20-12 facing right-handed starters this season. The team record behind Taillon is 27-11 on the road when working on 5-6 days rest. Pittsburgh is 16-30 at home when lined between +125 and -175. Play Chicago
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Yankees at Rays—Clarke Schmidt to start for New York. Schmidt has seven starts in the season carrying an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander strikes out 27.3% with 8.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 37% with 1.25 home runs per nine innings. Taj Bradley will start for Tampa Bay. Bradley makes his 2024 debut. He returns from a pectoral strain. He appeared in 23 games in his rookie campaign in 2023 with an ERA of 5.59 and WHIP of 1.39. The righty struck out 28% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 36.6% with 1.98 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Yankees in their Divisional games are hitting .208 and putting up 3.4 runs per game. Tampa Bay has improved its run production and hitting the past seven games. Play Tampa Bay +124.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Diamondbacks at Orioles—Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt in seven starts on the year delivers an ERA of 4.61 with WHIP of 1.20. The righthander strikes out 24.1% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 40.5% with 1.10 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.27 suggesting a drop in ERA based on his numbers. Cole Irvin to start for Baltimore. Irvin has six starts with an ERA of 2.86 with WHIP of 1.07. The lefthander strikes out 16.1% with 5.1% walks. Grounders come in at 51.9% with 0.52 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Arizona is hitting .290 against the fourteen lefthanders they have faced, putting up 7.1 runs per game. The Orioles in their past seven games are hitting .216. The Diamondbacks are 34-33 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 the past three seasons with a +16.7-unit return. Play Arizona +129.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Twins at Blue Jays—Joe Ryan will start for Minnesota. Ryan in seven starts on the season produces an ERA of 3.54 with WHIP of 1.01. The righthander has a 28.4% K rate with 3.7% walks. Grounders dealt at 37.4% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. Yusei Kikuchi to start for Toronto. Kikuchi has seven starts with an ERA of 2.72 with WHIP of 1.16. The lefthander fans 26.5% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 47.7% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Toronto bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.15 and the Twins 3.17 on the road. The Blue Jays are hitting .218 in their past seven games, losing five of those games. Minnesota on the road are putting up 5.4 runs per game, winning 11 of those 18 games. The team record behind Kikuchi is 24-30 when favored by -110 or higher with a -21-unit loss. Play Minnesota +102.
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Nationals at Red Sox—Patrick Corbin to start for Washington. Corbin has seven starts on the campaign delivering an ERA of 6.45 with WHIP of 1.81. The lefthander strikes out 14.4% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 45.8% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.40 does suggests a drop in ERA based on form. Tanner Houck will start for Boston. Houck in seven starts has an ERA of 1.99 with WHIP of 0.97. The righthander is fanning 25.4% with 3.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 54.8% with minimal home run damage.
The Pick:
Boston is hitting .211 against left-handed starters putting up 3 runs per game and losing six of the ten against them. Past seven games the Nationals are putting up 4.7 runs per game. The Boston bullpen at home has an ERA of 5.20 and the Nats on the road an ERA of 3.52. Washington is 35-38 as a road underdog of +150 or higher the past two seasons with a +31.1-unit return. Play Washington +178.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Braves at Mets—Charlie Morton to start for Atlanta. Morton in six starts on the year deals an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.14. The veteran strikes out 22.9% with 9% walks. Ground balls sit at 45.3% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. Jose Quintana to start for New York. Quintana has seven starts with an ERA of 5.20 with WHIP of 1.54. The lefthander has seen his K rate drop to 15.3% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls dished at 47.5% with 0.74 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
New York in their 19 home games is hitting .213. The Braves are hitting .308 against the division and putting up 6 runs per game. Atlanta is 42-25 to the run line against an NL team with an OBP of .315 or lower the past two seasons with a +15.6-unit return. The Mets are 34-58 to the run line facing a starting pitcher who allows 5.5 hits or fewer per start the past two seasons with a -31-unit loss. Play Atlanta on run line -1.5 runs at +108.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Phillies at Marlins—Ranger Suarez to start for Philadelphia. Suarez has seven starts carrying an ERA of 1.72 with WHIP of 0.72. The lefthander is fanning 26.9% with 3.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 57.8% with 0.77 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 2.81 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Trevor Rogers to start for Miami. Rogers in seven starts in 2024 has an ERA of 6.15 with WHIP of 1.72. The lefty has seen his strikeouts drop to 17.6% with 9.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 51.3% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Miami is hitting .214 against left-handed starters going under in 9 of 15. The Phillies are putting up only 3.8 runs per game against lefty starters. They have gone under in 10 of 15 on the road. The team is 12-3 to the under with Suarez on the road. Miami is 24-12 to the under when an underdog of +150 or greater the past two seasons. Play Philadelphia and Miami under 7.5.
PART 2
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Guardians at White Sox—Carlos Carrasco to start for Cleveland. Carrasco in seven starts on the year carries an ERA of 5.67 with WHIP of 1.62. The righthander strikes out 17.4% with 11.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 46.1% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. Garrett Crochet to start for Chicago. Crochet has eight starts delivering an ERA of 5.31 with WHIP of 1.01. The lefthander has an elite K rate of 32.3% with 5.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 42% with 1.77 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.91 which suggests a drop in ERA should form hold.
The Pick:
Chicago is putting up 2.7 runs in their Divisional Games losing 18 of 21. Their bullpen at home has an ERA of 4.91. The Guardians on the road has an ERA of 2.82. Cleveland is hitting .276 against left handed starters putting up 6.5 runs per game, winning seven of their eight against them. Chicago is 33-69 facing a winning team the past two seasons with a -22.6-unit loss. Play Cleveland -105.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Cardinals at Brewers—Lance Lynn to start for St Louis. Lynn in seven starts in 2024 deals an ERA of 3.28 with WHIP of 1.40. The veteran is fanning 20.9% with 10.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.6% with 1.26 home runs per nine innings. Robert Gasser will start for Milwaukee. Gasser makes his MLB debut on Friday. The lefthander was drafted in 2021 and had three starts in Triple A this season posting an ERA of 5.25 with WHIP of 1.50 striking out 17 batters with six walks in 12 innings. He put up good numbers in Triple A in 2023.
The Pick:
St Louis is hitting .203 against the nine left-handed starters he has faced this year. The Past seven games they are averaging 2.7 runs per game. The Brewers are 33-15 at home when lined at -100 to -150 the past two seasons with a +14.4-unit return. Play Milwaukee -135.
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Rangers at Rockies—Jon Gray to start for Texas. Gray appeared in eight games in the year, dealing an ERA of 2.50 with WHIP of 1.16. The righthander fans 25.5% with 6.7% walks. Grounders dished at 41.8% with limited home run damage. Austin Gomber will start for Colorado. Gomber has seven starts putting up an ERA of 3.79 with WHIP of 1.29. The lefthander is striking out 15.7% with 8.2% walks. Grounders sit at 40.8% with 1.66 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Rangers bullpen on the road has an ERA of 6.99 in their 20 road games. They are batting only .214 against the 13 left-handed starters they have faced. Colorado is 30-28 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 the past three seasons with a +23.3-unit return. The team record behind Gomber is 16-10 when lined at +125 to +175 with a +13.6-unit return. They are 26-23 at home against a winning team the past two seasons with a +16.4-unit return. Play Colorado +165.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Royals at Angels—Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh in five starts on the year carries an ERA of 2.70 with WHIP of 1.01. The righthander is fanning 15.9% with 6.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 36.3% with limited home run damage. Griffin Canning is the starter for Los Angeles. Canning has seven starts with an ERA of 6.69 and WHIP of 1.43. The righty strikes out 16.8% with 8.4% walks. Grounders come in at 35.4% with 1.54 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Canning at home has an ERA of 6.75. The Angels bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.82. They have lost 12 of 16 at home. The past seven games the Royals are hitting .277 and putting up 5.3 runs per game. Los Angeles is 1-10 at home when lined at +125 to -175 with a -9.4-unit loss. Play Kansas City -123.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Athletics at Mariners—Paul Blackburn to start for Oakland. Blackburn has seven starts in the year producing an ERA of 3.00 with WHIP of 1.02. The righthander fans 18.8% with 6.1% walks. Grounders sit at 49.2% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Bryan Woo to start for Seattle. Woo makes his 2024 debut after being sidelined with elbow inflammation. He had 18 starts in his rookie campaign last year with an ERA of 4.21 and WHIP of 1.21. The righty struck out 25.1% with 8.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.3% with 1.33 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Seattle bullpen at home has an ERA of 2.11 in their nineteen games going under in 14 of those games. The Oakland bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.45. Seattle bats .204 at home. The Athletics are batting .198 on the road. Blackburn is 11-1 to the under when a road underdog of +125 to +175 the past three seasons. Play Oakland and Seattle under 7.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Dodgers at Padres—Tyler Glasnow to start for Los Angeles. Glasnow in eight starts on the year carries an ERA of 2.70 with WHIP of 0.92. The veteran has an elite K rate of 32.3% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 43.6% with 0.72 home runs per nine innings. Michael King to start for San Diego. King has eight appearances with an ERA of 4.29 and WHIP of 1.40. The righty fans 23.4% with 11.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 41.5% with 2.14 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.70 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is hitting .283 against right-handed starters putting up 6.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has an ERA of 2.23 in their 16 road games. San Diego bats .231 at home. Los Angeles is 8-1 to the run line in night road games this season and 59-39 to the run line on the road the past two seasons with a +19-unit return. Play Los Angeles on run line -1.5 runs at +100.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 5/10/2024
Reds at Giants—Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott in seven starts in 2024 delivers an ERA of 3.32 with WHIP of 1.16. The lefthander strikes out 22.4% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 31.8% with 1.66 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.65 signals a rise in ERA based on form. Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb has eight starts with an ERA of 3.50 and WHIP of 1.36. The righthander has a strikeout mark of 18.3% with 6.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 58.8% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
San Francisco is hitting .236 at home going under in 11 of 15. Cincinnati in their past seven games is hitting .167 and putting up 1.9 runs per game. Webb is 13-2 to the under when favored by -125 to -175 and 13-3 to the under facing an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse the past two seasons. Play Cincinnati and San Francisco under 7.5.