Free MLB Picks For Today 4/19/2024
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Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Marlins at Cubs—A.J. Puk to start for Miami. Puk has three starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 5.91 with WHIP of 2.44. The lefthander has seen his K rate plummet to 13.8% with 24.1% walks. Ground balls served at 30.6% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings. Jameson Taillon debuts in 2024. Taillon has been dealing with a back injury. In 30 appearances last year he had an ERA of 4.84 with WHIP of 1.28. The righthander struck out 21.4% with 6.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 37.9% with 1.57 home runs per nine innings. In two minor league starts he allowed three runs with eight strikeouts in 6 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
The Cubs against lefthanded starters are hitting .306 and putting up 8.3 runs per game. They have been hitting the ball well at home, putting up 7.3 runs per game in their six. The Marlins bullpen has an ERA of near six. Miami is putting up 5.6 runs per game against righthanders going over in seven of their first eight against them. Play Miami and Chicago over 8.5.
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
White Sox at Phillies—Garrett Crochet to start for Chicago. Crochet in four starts in 2024 deals an ERA of 3.57 with WHIP of 3.57. The lefthander has a K rate of 35.2% with 4.5% walks. Grounders dealt at 46.2% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 2.26 which suggests a drop in ERA based on form. Spencer Turnbull to start for Philadelphia. Turnbull has three starts with an ERA of 2.80 with WHIP of 0.93. The righthander fans 26.2% with 8.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 48.7% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The White Sox are batting .203 against righthanded starters and pushing across just 2.1 runs per game. They are 2-12 against them. The White Sox are 10-32 in their past two Aprils with a -19.7 unit loss. Prefer the Phillies hitting. Play Philadelphia -117.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Rays at Yankees—Tyler Alexander to start for Tampa Bay. Alexander in three appearances on the campaign deals an ERA of 6.46 with WHIP of 1.63. The lefthander strikes out 17.1% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls sit at 24.5% with 2.93 home runs per nine innings. Clarke Schmidt will start for New York. Schmidt in three starts in 2024 has an ERA of 3.68 with WHIP of 1.64. The righthanders fans 25.4% with 12.7% walks. Ground ball rate of 43.6% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Rays bullpen has an ERA of 6.75 on the road. Tampa Bay is batting .215 in their eleven games against right-handed starters. The Rays’ two road opponents this year have been the Angels and Rockies so a massive step up in class here. Play New York -124.
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Athletics at Guardians—Joe Boyle to start for Oakland. Boyle has three starts on the campaign with an ERA of 5.68 with WHIP of 1.82. The righthander is striking out 24.6% with 13.1% walks. Ground balls sat at 36.1% with no homers allowed Triston McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie in three starts has an ERA of 6.23 with WHIP of 1.77. The righty is fanning 8.1% with 19.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 35.6% with 1.38 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Athletics are hitting .197 against right-handed starters this year. Oakland is getting elite work on the road from their bullpen. The Guardians bullpen has performed well. Cleveland is 32-14 to the under when favored by home by -110 or higher with a +16.7-unit return. They are 38-21 to the under when facing an AL team that averages 4.4 runs per game or fewer. Play Oakland and Cleveland under 8.
Texan Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Rangers at Braves—Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney in three starts on the campaign posts an ERA of 6.75 with WHIP of 1.58. The lefthander fans 16.9% with 11.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 43.6% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. Chris Sale to start for Atlanta. Sale has three starts with an ERA of 4.58 with WHIP of 1.13. The veteran strikes out 28.2% with 7% walks. Grounders sit at 47.7% with 1.02 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 3.41 which suggests a drop in ERA if form holds.
The Pick:
Texas bullpen on the road has an ERA of 6.99 in their nine games. Braves bullpen in their six home games has an ERA of 5.47. The Rangers are 9-1 to the over facing NL teams pushing across five runs per game the past two seasons. Heaney is 19-7 to the over in night games the past three seasons. The Braves are 26-14 to the over against left-handed starters the past two seasons. Play Texas and Atlanta over 9.5.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Orioles at Royals—Dean Kremer is the starter for Baltimore. Kremer in three starts on the year deals an ERA of 4.96 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander is striking out 19.4% with 2.8% walks. Grounders sit at 42.9% with 2.20 home runs per nine innings. Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh has three starts with an ERA of 4.32 with WHIP of 1.08. The righty fans 14.7% with 4.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 34% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Baltimore bullpen has been elite with an ERA of 0.92 in their six games. They are hitting .282 against the twelve right-handed starters they have faced this year and putting up 6.4 runs a game. Plus winning 10 of their first 12 against them. Team record behind Kremer 16-5 when working on 5-6 days rest with a +12.2-unit return. Also, 15-4 facing a team with an OBP of .330 or worse the past two seasons with a +11.4 unit return. Play Baltimore -105.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Brewers at Cardinals—Freddy Peralta to start for Milwaukee. Peralta in three starts on the year delivers an ERA of 2.55 with WHIP of 0.68. The righthander has a K rate of 39.4% with 3% walks. Ground balls dished at 36.1% with 1.02 home runs per nine innings. Kyle Gibson to start for St Louis. Gibson has three starts with an ERA of 6.16 with WHIP of 1.21. The veteran has seen his strikeouts drop to 14.5% with 7.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 50.8% with 2.37 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Brewers in their nine road games are batting .309 and putting up 7.1 runs per game. The Cardinals are 38-49 at home the past two seasons with a -24-unit loss. Milwaukee is 46-25 when lined at -100 to -150 with a +15.2 unit return the past two seasons. St Louis is 6-15 when at home when facing a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or lower the past two seasons. Play Milwaukee -125.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/19/2024
Diamondbacks at Giants—Jordan Montgomery to debut for Arizona on Friday. Montgomery in 32 starts last year with two teams had an ERA of 3.20 with WHIP of 1.19. The lefthander struck out 21.4% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls sat at 32.2% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. In two minor league starters on the year, he has allowed nine runs with two homers and five walks in 7 2/3rd innings. Blake Snell to start for San Francisco. Snell had 32 starts in 2023 carrying an ERA of 2.25 with WHIP of 1.19. The lefthander fanned 31.5% with 13.3% walks. Grounders dealt at 44.4% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. He has two starts in the year allowing ten earned runs with nine strikeouts in seven innings.
The Pick:
In their first six home games the Giants are batting .225 and putting up 2.8 runs per game. Arizona is batting .272 against lefthanders and putting up 6.1 runs per game in their ten games against Southpaws. Team record behind Snell 5-12 with a -10.4-unit loss the past two first halves of the season with a -10.4 unit loss. Play Arizona +120.