Free MLB Picks For Today 4/17/2024
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San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Giants at Marlins—Keaton Winn to start for San Francisco. Winn in three starts on the year has an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander is striking out 19.7% with 10.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 59.1% with limited home run damage. A.J. Puk to start for Miami. Puk has three starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 5.91 with WHIP of 2.44. The lefthander has seen his K rate plummet to 13.8% with 24.1% walks. Ground balls served at 30.6% with 0.84 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Miami bullpen at home has an ERA of 6.75 with the Giants on the road at 5.79. The Marlins are putting up 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters in their first seven against them. San Francisco is hitting .303 against left-handed starters. Play San Francisco and Miami over 8.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Pirates at Mets—Bailey Falter to start for Pittsburgh. Falter in three starts on the campaign carries an ERA of 4.20 with WHIP of 0.98. The lefthander fans 10.2% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 38.8% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings. Luis Severino is the starter for New York. Severino has three starts in 2024 with an ERA of 3.00 and WHIP of 1.40. The veteran is striking out 25% with 8.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 53.3% with 1.20 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The New York bullpen has performed well at home. The Mets are hitting .313. the past seven games and are hitting lefthanded starters. The Pirates are batting .226 against right-handed starters. Play New York -134.
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Braves at Astros—Max Fried to start for Atlanta. Fried has three starts in the year posting an ERA of 8.74 with WHIP of 1.85. The lefthander has struck out 17.9% with 8.9% walks. Grounders come in at 61.5% with 0.79 home runs per nine innings. His FIP is 4.18 suggesting a drop in ERA based on his numbers. J.P. France to start for Houston. France in three starts produces an ERA of 8.22 with WHIP of 1.89. The righthander fans 15.8% with 9.2% walks. Grounders served at 28.6% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Astros are batting .282 against left-handed starters in their six games against them. Atlanta in their first nine games against right-handed starters are hitting .321 and putting up 7.1 runs per game. The Astros bullpen has been pounded at home. Houston is 46-23 when facing teams outscoring opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game over the past two seasons. The Braves are 39-23 to the over when facing teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. Play Atlanta and Houston over 9.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Yankees at Blue Jays—Marcus Stroman to start for New York. Stroman in three starts on the year delivers an ERA of 2.12 with WHIP of 1.06. The veteran strikes out 24.6% with 10.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 55.8% with limited home run damage. Kevin Gausman to start for Toronto. Gausman has three starts posting an ERA of 11.57 with WHIP of 1.93. The righthander fans 20.8% with 4.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 29.4% with 2.89 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The New York bullpen has put up elite numbers in their first 11 games on the road. The Blue Jays are batting .218 against the fifteen right-handed starters they have faced. Their bullpen has struggled at home. Team record behind Gausman 0-5 in his past five divisional games the past two seasons with a -8.9-unit loss. The team is also 7-13 in its past 20 at home against winning teams with a -15.5-unit loss. Play New York -110.
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Cubs at Diamondbacks—Jordan Wicks to start for Chicago. Wick has three starts on the campaign dealing an ERA of 5.68 with WHIP of 1.89. The lefthander fans 29.2% with 12.3% walks. Ground balls served at 29.7% with no homers allowed. Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona. Pfaadt in three starts has an ERA of 6.48 with WHIP of 1.38. The right-hander strikes out 23% with 4.1% walks. Grounders sit at 38.5% with 1.62 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Roof will be closed. Pfaadt is 17-6 to the under when facing teams that strike out seven or greater time per game the past two seasons. Arizona is batting .217 in Day Games. Chicago in their first ten road games is batting .208. The Diamondbacks bullpen has performed well in their first 11 games at home. Play Chicago and Arizona under 9.5.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Reds at Mariners—Andrew Abbott to start for Cincinnati. Abbott in three starts on the year delivers an ERA of 2.60 with WHIP of 1.04. The lefty fans 15.9% with 5.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 35.3% with limited home run damage. Bryce Miller will start for Seattle. Miller has three starts in 2024 with an ERA of 1.96 with WHIP of 0.98. The righthander strikes out 23.6% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls sit at 32.7% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Seattle bullpen has put up great numbers at home. The Mariners are batting just .174 in their five-Day Games. Cincinnati on the road is batting .230 in their first seven. The Mariners are 38-21 to the under in home Day Games the past three seasons. They are also 29-17 to the under against left-handed starters the past two seasons. Play Cincinnati and Seattle under 8.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Angels at Rays—Reid Detmers to start for Los Angels. Detmers in three starts on the year carries an ERA of 1.04 with WHIP of 0.81. The lefthander fans 40.6% with 9.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.9% with no homers allowed. Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell has three starts in 2024 with an ERA of 1.17 and WHIP of 1.30. The righthander is fanning 23.4% with 7.8% walks. Ground balls dealt at 36.4% with no homers allowed.
The Pick:
The Rays bullpen an ERA of 7.00 in their first eleven home games and batting .233. Los Angeles is hitting well over their past seven games. Play Los Angeles +115.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/17/2024
Guardians at Red Sox—Ben Lively to start for Cleveland. Lively had 19 appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 5.38 with WHIP of 1.36. The righty struck out 20.6% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 39.6% with 2.03 home runs per nine innings. He was called up with the injury to Shane Bieber. In two Triple A starts he has allowed three earned runs with four strikeouts in 8 1/3rd innings. Tanner Houck to start for Boston. Houck in three starts has an ERA of 2.04 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander fans 25% with 2.6% walks. Grounders served at 47.2% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
The Red Sox bullpen at home has an ERA of 7.07 in their seven games. At home they are batting only .192. Cleveland is getting elite work out of their bullpen in their first ten on the road. The Guardians are putting up 5.9 runs per game away from home. Boston is 25-38 at home against a right-handed starter the past two seasons with a -21-unit loss. Play Cleveland +121.