Free MLB Picks For Today 4/7/2024
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Orioles at Pirates—Dean Kremer to start for Pittsburgh. Kremer had 32 starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.12 with WHIP of 1.31. The righthander struck out 21.4% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 39.4% with 1.41 home runs per nine innings. He faced Kansas City at home to begin the campaign allowing three earned runs with five strikeouts in 5 1/3rd innings. Marco Gonzales to start for Pittsburgh. Gonzales started ten games last season posting an ERA of 5.22 with WHIP of 1.46. The lefthander had a K rate of 17% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 40.7% with 1.02 home runs per nine innings. He opened the year at Washington allowing one run with two strikeouts in five innings.
The Pick:
The team record behind Kremer is 23-8 facing a team averaging 7 or more strikeouts per game with a +16.9-unit return. The team is 15-2 with Kremer as a -110 favorite or higher the past two seasons. Play Baltimore -126.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Phillies at Nationals—Christopher Sanchez to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez appeared in 19 games last season, dealing an ERA of 3.44 with WHIP of 1.05. The lefthander struck out 24.2% with 4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 57% with 1.45 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Reds to open the year allowing two earned runs with eight strikeouts in five innings. Mackenzie Gore to start for Washington. Gore had 27 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 4.42 with WHIP of 1.40. The lefty struck out 25.9% with 9.8% walks. Ground ball rate of 38.8% with 1.78 home runs per nine innings. He battled the Pirates in the opener allowing three earned runs with six strikeouts in 5 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Gore faced the Phillies three times last year allowing 16 earned runs in 13 2/3rd innings. Phillies bullpen an ERA of 7 on the year. Play Philadelphia and Washington over 8.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Diamondbacks at Braves—Ryne Nelson to start for Arizona. Nelson appeared in 29 games in 2023 producing an ERA of 5.31 with WHIP of 1.42. The righthander fanned 15.5% with 7.4% walks. Ground balls dished at 36.7% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home at home to the Yankees allowing five runs, four earned with four walks in 2 2/3rd innings. Chris Sale to start for Atlanta. Sale had 20 starts last year with an ERA of 4.30 with WHIP of 1.13. The lefthander had a K rate of 29.4% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 37.3% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Phillies on the road to begin 2024 giving up two earned runs with seven strikeouts in 5 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Arizona is batting .317 against lefthanders. They are 31-31 as a road underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons with a +12.4-unit return. Play Arizona +180.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Blue Jays at Yankees—Bowdin Francis to start for Toronto. Francis in 20 appearances in 2023 delivered an ERA of 1.73 with WHIP of 0.83. The righthander struck out 25.7% with 5.9% walks. Grounders served at 35.2% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings. His FIP was 3.86 which suggests a higher ERA based on his numbers. He pitched at Houston to start the year allowing seven earned runs with three homers and seven strikeouts in 5 1/3rd innings. Luis Gil will start for New York. Gil underwent Tommy John surgery and missed most of last season. He has 8 career starts with an ERA of 3.55 with 11.61 K’s per nine innings but 5.68 walks. He faced Arizona on the road to open the year allowing one earned run with six strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
The Blue Jays bats came to life on Saturday. The New York bullpen has struggled at home this season. Francis opening start a concern as is Gil’s control. Play Toronto and New York over 8.5.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Mets at Reds—Sean Manaea to start for New York. Manaea appeared in 37 games in 2023 with an ERA of 4.44 with WHIP of 1.24. The lefthander fanned 25.7% with 8.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 40.9% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. He opened at home to Detroit allowing no runs with eight strikeouts in six innings of work. Andrew Abbott will start for Cincinnati. Abbott had 21 starts last year delivering an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.32. The lefty struck out 26.1% with 9.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 28.6% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings. He battled at Philadelphia in his first start allowing two earned runs with four strikeouts in 5 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
New York is hitting .196 in Day Games and their bullpen is struggling on the road. Cincinnati is batting .287 at home. The Reds are 47-32 with a +18.7-unit return facing losing teams the past two seasons. The Mets are 21-46 as an underdog of +100 or higher the past two seasons. Play Cincinnati -110.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Athletics at Tigers—Joe Boyle to start for Oakland. Boyle had three starts last year carrying an ERA of 1.69 with WHIP of 0.81. The righthander had a K rate of 25% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls sat at 30% with limited home run damage. He faced Red Sox at home to start the year allowing seven earned runs with four walks in 2 2/3rd innings. Jack Flaherty will start for Detroit. Flaherty in 29 appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 4.99 with WHIP of 1.58. The veteran struck out 22.8% with 10.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 42.7% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. He faced the White Sox in his opener allowing one earned run with seven strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
The Athletics are hitting .159 on the road. Their bullpen has put up good numbers. The Tigers are batting .206 at home and struggling to score runs and are also putting up elite bullpen numbers. Detroit is 22-10 to the under facing bullpens with an ERA of 3.45 or greater the past two seasons. Play Oakland and Detroit under 8.5.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Guardians at Twins—Triston McKenzie to start for Cleveland. McKenzie had only four starts due to injury last season, dealing an ERA of 5.06 with WHIP of 1.56. The righthander has a career ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.06 striking out 386 batters in 364 innings. His first start this year was at Seattle allowing four earned runs with two strikeouts in 3 1/3rd innings. Bailey Ober to start for Minnesota. Ober in 26 starts in 2023 posted an ERA of 3.43 with WHIP of 1.07. The righty had a K rate of 25.4% with 5% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.3% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings. He started at KC to open the year allowing eight earned runs with three homers in 1 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Cleveland is now 38-14 under in the division with a +23.3 unit return the past two seasons. Both bullpens are in elite form. Twins hitting only .141 at home. Play Cleveland and Minnesota under 8.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
White Sox at Royals—Garrett Crochet to start for Chicago. Crochet appeared out of the pen in 13 games last year posting an ERA of 3.55 with WHIP of 1.97. The lefthander has a career ERA of 2.51 with WHIP of 1.23 striking out 101 batters in 86 innings. In two starts this year he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Alec Marsh will start for KC. Marsh had 17 appearances last season dealing an ERA of 5.69 with WHIP of 1.56. The righty fanned 24.9% with 11.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 34.6% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Orioles on the road to open the year allowing one earned run with five strikeouts in seven innings.
The Pick:
Chicago is hitting only .170 on the road. The White Sox are 28-52 as an underdog of +100 to +150 with a -17.4-unit loss the past two seasons. They are 46-83 against right-handed starters with a -29.7-unit loss the past two seasons. Play Kansas City -124.
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Mariners at Brewers—Emerson Hancock to start for Seattle. Hancock had three starts last year allowing six earned runs with six strikeouts in 12 innings of work. He faced Cleveland at home to open the year allowing three earned runs with one strikeout in 5 1/3rd innings. Colin Rea to start for Milwaukee. Rea appeared in 26 games in 2023 producing an ERA of 4.55 with WHIP of 1.19. The righty fanned 21.3% with 7.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 43.8% with 1.66 home runs per nine innings. In his opener he allowed one earned run with two strikeouts in five innings at the Mets.
The Pick:
The Brewers are 30-13 at home when lined at -100 to -150. The Mariners are batting .206 against righthanded starters. Milwaukee is batting .276 in their five-Day Games. Mariner’s pen has been pounded on the road. Play Milwaukee -113.
Miami Marlins vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Marlins at Cardinals—Max Meyer to start for Miami. Meyer had two starts last year allowing five earned runs with two homers and six strikeouts in six innings. His first start in 2023 came against the Angels at home where he allowed two earned runs with four strikeouts in five innings. Kyle Gibson to start for St Louis. Gibson had 33 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 4.73 with WHIP of 1.32. The veteran struck out 19.5% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 48.9% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Padres on the road to open the year allowing two earned runs with two homers and four strikeouts in seven innings.
The Pick:
Miami is batting just .195 in Day Games with bullpen struggles. The Cardinals are hitting and putting up runs at home. They are getting good bullpen work. The Marlins are winless in nine games. Play St Louis -132.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Dodgers at Cubs—
Gavin Stone to start for Los Angeles. Stone appeared in eight games last season with an ERA of 9.00 and WHIP of 1.90. The righty struck out 14.5% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 45.5% with 2.32 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Cardinals at home to open the season allowing three earned runs with six strikeouts in five innings. His season opener came at home to St Louis where he allowed three earned runs with six strikeouts in five innings. Shota Imanaga to start for Chicago. Imanaga had eight great seasons in Japan and had an ERA of 2.66 with WHIP of 1.02 last season. He faced the Rockies at home in the opener allowing no runs with nine strikeouts in six innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is 22-11 on the road when lined at +125 to -125. The price is too short to pass on the Dodgers. Play Los Angeles -107.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Rays at Rockies—Ryan Pepiot to start for Tampa Bay. Pepiot appeared in eight games with Los Angeles last year with an ERA of 2.14 with WHIP of 0.756. The righty struck out 23.9% with 3.1% walks. Ground ball rate of 36.7% with 1.50 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Rangers at home in the opener allowing six earned runs with four walks in 5 2/3rd innings. Dakota Hudson to start for Colorado. Hudson had 18 appearances last season delivering an ERA of 4.98 with WHIP of 1.50. The veteran had a K rate of 12.7% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 51.5% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. He battled the Cubs to open the season allowing three runs with two walks in 5 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
High contact the concern for Hudson. Pepiot opening start as well. Both teams are crushing baseball in this series and the bullpens are getting hammered. The Rays are 43-25 to the over against losing teams. Play Tampa Bay and Colorado over 11.5.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Padres at Giants—Matt Waldron to start for San Diego. Waldron made eight appearances last year with an ERA of 4.35 with WHIP of 1.23. The right-handed fanned 17.9% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls dished at 40% with 1.96 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Cardinals at home in his opener allowing four earned runs with seven strikeouts in four innings. Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb made 33 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 3.25 and WHIP of 1.07. The righty struck out 22.8% with 3.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 62.1% with 0.83 home runs per nine innings. In two starts this year Webb allowed seven earned runs with ten strikeouts in 9 2/3rd innings all on the road.
The Pick:
San Francisco is 50-40 as a favorite of -150 the past three seasons with a -20.4-unit loss. They are 54-68 facing righthanded starters with a -23.4-unit loss the past two seasons. San Francisco is hitting .148 at home. Play San Diego +152.
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Red Sox at Angels—Tanner Houck is the starter for Boston. The righthander made 21 starts in 2023 dealing an ERA of 5.01 with WHIP of 1.37. Houck struck out 21.4% with 8.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 53% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. He faced Oakland on the road in his opener allowing no runs and three hits with ten strikeouts in six innings. Chase Silseth to start for Los Angeles. Silseth appeared in sixteen games last season producing an ERA of 3.96 with WHIP of 1.28. The righty struck out 25.3% with 11.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 48.9% with 1.55 home runs per nine innings. He opened at Miami allowing four runs with five strikeouts in three innings.
The Pick:
Boston is batting .299 in Day Games. Their bullpen has been outstanding. Los Angeles is batting only .182 at home with a bullpen ERA of 5.06. Play Boston -111.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/7/2024
Astros at Rangers—Ronel Blanco to start for Houston. Blanco made 17 appearances in 2023 with an ERA of 4.50 and WHIP of 1.48. The righty fanned 23% with 12.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.7% with 2.08 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Blue Jays at home to start the year allowing no runs with seven strikeouts in nine hitless innings. His ERA is 5.79 with WHIP of 1.50 on the road in his career. Dane Dunning to start for Texas. Dunning had 35 appearances in 2023 posting an ERA of 3.70 with WHIP of 1.26. The righthander fanned 19.4% with 7.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 46.3% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings. He opened the year at Tampa Bay allowing three earned runs with seven strikeouts in 6 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
The Rangers are 48-33 when lined at +125 to -125 the past two seasons. Houston is batting .167 on the road. Their bullpen has been hammered. Texas is batting .225 at home and getting great work out of the pen. Play Texas -103.