Free MLB Picks For Today 4/2/2024
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Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Twins at Brewers—Louie Varland to start for Minnesota. Varland appeared in 17 games in 2023 delivering an ERA of 4.63 with WHIP of 1.22. The righthander struck out 25.1% with 6% walks. Ground balls sat at 44.3% with 2.12 home runs per nine innings. Jake Junis the starter for Milwaukee. Junis had 40 appearances with the Giants last season dealing an ERA of 3.87 with WHIP of 1.29. The righty fanned 26.2% with 5.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 43.2% with 1.26 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
The Twins faced two righthanded starters in the Royals series and hit only .175. The Brewers are pounding the baseball. Milwaukee 46-29 when lined at +125 to -125 with a +16.9-unit return. They are +17.3 units against the American League the past three seasons. Play Milwaukee -105.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Royals at Orioles—Alec Marsh to start for Kansas City. Marsh in 17 appearances last season delivered an ERA of 5.69 with WHIP of 1.56. The second year righthander struck out 24.9% with 11.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 34.6% with 1.94 home runs per nine innings. Cole Irvin to start for Baltimore. Irvin appeared in 24 games in 2023 posting an ERA of 4.42 with WHIP of 1.28. The lefthander had a K rate of 20.2% with 6.3% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.4% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings. Baltimore took the first game of this series with the 6-4 home win.
The Pick:
Baltimore has won eight of nine against the Royals covering the run line in seven of those wins. KC bullpen has been hammered this year. Baltimore is batting .368 against righthanders. Baltimore 40-24 to the run line when facing teams hitting .255 or worse the past two seasons with a +14.1-unit return. Play Baltimore on run line -1.5 runs at +125.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Reds at Phillies—Graham Ashcraft to start for Cincinnati. Ashcraft had 26 starts last season delivering an ERA of 4.76 with WHIP of 1.37. The third year righthander fanned 17.8% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 47.8% with 1.42 home runs per nine innings. Spencer Turnbull to start for Philadelphia. Turnbull had seven starts in 2023 with the Tigers carrying an ERA of 7.26 with WHIP of 1.68. He returned last year from Tommy John surgery. Cincinnati won the opener of this series 6-3.
The Pick:
Cincinnati is 32-28 as an underdog of +125 to +175 the last two seasons with a +17.8 unit return. Cincinnati is hitting righthanders. Turnbull and Phillies bullpen tough to back at a price. Play Cincinnati +127.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Angels at Marlins—Tyler Anderson to start for Los Angeles. Anderson appeared in 27 games last year dealing an ERA of 5.43 with WHIP of 1.49. The lefthander had a K rate of 18.9% with 10.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 30.9% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings. Jesus Luzardo to start for Miami. Luzardo started 32 games in 2023 producing an ERA of 3.58 with WHIP of 1.21. The lefthander struck out 28.1% with 7.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 40.2% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings. He faced Pittsburgh to open the season allowing two earned runs with eight strikeouts in five innings. The Angels won the opener 7-4.
The Pick:
The Angels are 16-25 against lefthanders the past two seasons with a -14.5-unit loss. The Los Angeles bullpen has been hammered this year. Play Miami -142.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Rangers at Rays—Andrew Heaney to start for Texas. Heaney had 34 appearances in 2023 dealing an ERA of 4.15 with WHIP of 1.38. The lefthander struck out 23.6% with 9.4% walks. Ground balls served at 40% with 1.40 home runs per nine innings. Zach Eflin to start for Tampa Bay. Eflin in 31 starts last season carried an ERA of 3.50 with WHIP of 1.02. The righthander had a K rate of 26.5% with 3.4% walks. Ground balls came in at 49.8% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings. He opened the season facing Toronto at home and allowed six earned runs with three homers in 5 2/3rd innings. Texas won the opener of this series 9-3.
The Pick:
The Rangers are 38-22 facing an AL team hitting .260 or worse the past two seasons with a +17.5-unit return. The team record behind Heaney 16-5 on the road with a +12.1-unit return. The Rangers are pounding righthanded starters batting .421 Play Texas +141.
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Tigers at Mets—Casey Mize to start for Detroit. Mize last pitched in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. He comes off a good spring. In 39 career starts the righthander had an ERA of 4.29 with WHIP of 1.21 striking out 148 batters with 56 walks in 188 2/3rd innings of work. Adrian Houser to start for New York. Houser appeared in 23 games with Milwaukee last season producing an ERA of 4.12 with WHIP of 1.39. The veteran struck out 20% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 46.7% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Detroit bullpen has been outstanding. New York in their three games against righthanded starters are hitting only .137. The Mets are 22-28 as a favorite of -125 to -175 with a -18.2-unit loss the past two seasons. Play Detroit +115.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Braves at White Sox—Reynaldo Lopez to start for Atlanta. Lopez appeared in 68 games with three teams last year with an ERA of 3.27 and WHIP of 1.27. The righthander had a strikeout rate of 29.9% with 12.2% walks. Ground balls dished at 39.2% with 1.09 home runs per nine innings. Garrett Crochet will start for Chicago. Crochet appeared in 13 games in 2023 dealing an ERA of 3.55 with WHIP of 1.97. The lefthander struck out 18.8% with 20.3% walks. Grounders served at 32.4% with 0.71 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Tigers on March 28th allowing one earned run with eight strikeouts in five innings.
The Pick:
Atlanta in their lone start against a lefthander hit only .212. Crochet start against Detroit encouraging. Play Chicago +178.
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Rockies at Cubs—Kyle Freeland to start for Colorado. Freeland had 29 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 5.03 with WHIP of 1.47. The lefthander struck out 13.9% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls sat at 42.9% with 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his season opener Freeland allowed ten earned runs with two strikeouts in 2 1/3rd innings at Arizona. Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad appeared in 32 games last season producing an ERA of 3.05 with WHIP of 1.23. The righthander fanned 20.9% with 9.1% walks. Ground balls sat at 46.9% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.28 suggests a rise in ERA should form hold.
The Pick:
Freeland’s form too bad the past two seasons. He is pitching to very high contact. Cubs 16-8 to the run line at home facing teams with poor on base percentage with a +11.3-unit return. Rockies poor hitting on the road continues. Play Chicago on run line -1.5 runs at +113.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Blue Jays at Astros—Jose Berrios to start for Toronto. Berrios had 32 starts in 2023 producing an ERA of 3.65 with WHIP of 1.19. The veteran struck out 23.5% with 6.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 41.6% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Rays on the road to open the season and allowed two earned runs with six strikeouts in six innings. Framber Valdez to start for Houston. Valdez started 31 games last year dealing an ERA of 3.45 with WHIP of 1.13. The lefthander struck out 24.8% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 54.2% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. Valdez faced the Yankees in his opening start allowing three earned runs with six walks in 4 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Team record behind Valdez 7-13 as a home favorite of -110 or higher with a -14.9-unit loss. Houston bullpen has struggled. Play Toronto +138.
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Red Sox at Athletics—Bryan Bello to start for Boston. Bello in 28 starts in 2023 delivered an ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.34. The righty fanned 19.8% with 6.7% walks. Grounders sat at 56.2% with 1.38 home runs per nine innings. In his opener start he allowed two earned runs with two strikeouts in five innings at Seattle. Alex Wood to start for Oakland. Wood appeared in 29 games last year posting an ERA of 4.33 with WHIP of 1.43. The lefthander saw his strikeouts plummet to 17.2% with 9.8% walks. Ground balls sat at 45% with 0.83 home runs per nine innings. Wood in his opening start allowed six earned runs with seven hits in 3 1/3rd innings at home to Cleveland.
The Pick:
Wood high contact the past two seasons a major concern. Athletics are 3-30 facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or lower the past two seasons with a -25.3 net rating. The Athletics are 10-30 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the past two seasons. Play Boston -138.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Guardians at Mariners—Shane Bieber to start for Cleveland. Bieber in 21 starts in 2023 produced an ERA of 3.80 with WHIP of 1.23. The righthander had a K rate of 20.1% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls sat at 47.2% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. In his initial start he allowed no earned runs with 11 strikeouts in six innings at Oakland. Luis Castillo to start for Seattle. Castillo in 33 starts last year dealt an ERA of 3.34 with WHIP of 1.10. The veteran struck out 27.3% with 7% walks. Grounders dished at 38.9% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings. Castillo in his opener allowed four earned runs with two walks in five innings at home to Boston. Seattle won the opener 5-4.
The Pick:
Bieber 16-2 to the under against the AL West. The Mariners are hitting only .189 at home and getting good work from their bullpen. Guardians’ bullpen an ERA under one. Play Cleveland and Seattle under 7.
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Cardinals at Padres—Miles Mikolas to start for St Louis. Mikolas had 35 starts last season dealing an ERA of 4.78 with WHIP of 1.32. The veteran struck out 15.9% with 4.5% walks. Ground ball rate of 38.5% with 4.15 home runs per nine innings. He opened at the Dodgers allowing five earned runs with two homers in 4 1/3rd innings. Yu Darvish to start for San Diego. Darvish made 24 starts last year producing an ERA of 4.56 with WHIP of 1.30. The veteran struck out 24.6% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 41.6% with 1.19 home runs per nine innings. In his two starts this year Darvish allowed one earned run in 8 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
St Louis hitting only .213 this year and struggling in their bullpen. The Padres hit righthanded starters. Play San Diego -130.
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Yankees at Diamondbacks—Nestor Cortes to start for New York. Cortes had 12 starts last season posting an ERA of 4.97 with WHIP of 1.25. The lefthander had a K rate of 25.2% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls sat at 26.3% with 1.56 home runs per nine innings. In his first start he allowed four earned runs with two walks in five innings at Houston. Zac Gallen to start for Arizona. Gallen in 34 starts in 2023 delivered an ERA of 3.47 with WHIP of 1.12. The righthander had a K rate of 26% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls sat at 41.8% with 0.94 home runs per nine innings. In his first start he allowed one earned run with three strikeouts at home to Colorado.
The Pick:
The Yankees bullpen has been outstanding. They are hitting righthanders. Late innings in a close game would want them in this spot. Play New York +108.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 4/2/2024
Giants at Dodgers—Logan Webb to start for San Francisco. Webb in 33 starts in 2023 posted an ERA of 3.25 with WHIP of 1.07. The righthander fanned 22.8% with 3.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 62.1% with 0.83 home runs per nine innings. He opened at San Diego and allowed two earned runs with five strikeouts in six innings. Ryan Yarbrough will be the primary pitcher. Yarbrough appeared in 25 games last season putting up an ERA of 4.52 with WHIP of 1.23. The lefthander struck out 17.8% with 3.7% walks. Ground balls sat at 39.1% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. He has worked two games allowing no earned runs with two strikeouts in 4 2/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Los Angeles is 14-0 at home the past two seasons against a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or worse. LA is hitting .309 against right-handed starters. Play Los Angeles -135.