New Orleans Saints (7-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12/31/23 – In a pivotal NFL Week 17 matchup, the New Orleans Saints, holding a 7-8 record, visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who stand slightly ahead at 8-7. Set for Sunday, at Raymond James Stadium, this contest is crucial for both teams as they vie for a better position in the playoff race. Fans and bettors alike, seeking football best free picks, will find this game a complex puzzle of statistics, trends, and high-stakes implications.
The Saints have experienced an uneven offensive season this year. Quarterback Derek Carr has amassed 3417 yards at a 93.6 passer rating, showing efficiency but not dominance. Alvin Kamara led their rushing attack with 649 yards and five touchdowns while Chris Olave emerged as a reliable target, amassing 1041 yards and four touchdowns; showing potential as an effective deep threat and playmaker.
Contrarily, Tampa Bay’s Buccaneers have displayed more energy on offense. Baker Mayfield has amassed 3598 passing yards and 26 touchdowns through an aggressive passing game; Rachaad White led their rushing offense with 873 yards and six touchdowns; Mike Evans has been an invaluable wide receiver, amassing 1163 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns as an integral component in Tampa Bay’s offensive strategy.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12/31/23 Game Info
| When: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Raymond James Stadium |
| TV: | FOX |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
Derek Carr QB vs. Baker Mayfield QB
The Saints quarterback, Derek Carr, has shown off a methodical and efficient style this season with his 67.4% completion rate and passer rating just shy of 94 being evidence of this approach. His average of over 227 passing yards per game shows his effectiveness at moving the chains, yet scoring touchdowns remains an issue; being able to read defenses quickly will prove vital when facing off against an unpredictable Buccaneers defense.
Baker Mayfield brings an aggressive passing game to the Buccaneers as their quarterback. His increased yardage total and touchdown total reflect his riskier, yet potentially more rewarding approach. He and his primary receiver have formed an irresistibly potent combination, capable of turning games on their heads in mere moments. However, his completion rate and comparable number of interceptions to that of his counterpart suggest he strikes a balance between aggressive plays and maintaining possession. His challenge will be exploiting Saints defensive weaknesses while mitigating risk; escape pressure with frequent sacks as evidenced by frequent play on the move might prove key in defeating an unsusceptible Saints defense.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160, Total Odds: 42
The Buccaneers are favored with a -3 spread and a -160 moneyline, reflecting their slightly better record and home advantage. The total of 42 points suggests a moderate-scoring game, aligning with both teams’ offensive and defensive capabilities.
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends
The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall, constantly underperforming expectations. However, they have played far better in recent matchups with Tampa, covering in 8 of the previous 11 meetings. The New Orleans defense has also contributed to the under hitting in 15 of 20 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends
Meanwhile, Tampa has been a covering machine down the stretch, going 7-2 ATS in their last 9. The over has hit with regularity as well during this span. Tampa also owns an extended under streak against New Orleans specifically, with 6 straight unders in the last 7 head-to-head matchups.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12/31/23 Betting Picks
This matchup presents a challenging decision for bettors. The Saints’ recent ATS struggles contrast with their historical success against Tampa Bay, especially on the road. The Buccaneers’ potent offense under Mayfield poses a significant threat, but their inconsistency ATS at home against New Orleans cannot be ignored.
In considering multi-expert top picks, a balanced approach would be prudent. The Saints could cover the spread given their historical trend against Tampa Bay, while the total going UNDER might be a wise choice, considering both teams’ tendencies and the significance of the game in the playoff context.
Free Pick and Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22, New Orleans Saints 18