Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett 12/16/23 – UFC 296 rolls into Las Vegas on December 16th, 2023 with a stacked card full of elite talent. One matchup that stands out is Tony Ferguson taking on Paddy Pimblett at lightweight. Both men bring exciting styles and plenty of volatility, making this a must-see fight for MMA fans. In this premium predictions piece, we’ll break down the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter. Set in the electric atmosphere of the UFC, this fight promises to be a significant addition to the legacies of both athletes.
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett 12/16/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET |
| Where: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson Analysis
Tony Ferguson enters the cage with an impressive 26-9 professional record, featuring 18 wins by finish. His high-octane style led to capturing the interim lightweight title. A true mixed martial artist, Ferguson can beat opponents anywhere the fight goes using creative striking, tenacious wrestling, and lethal jiu-jitsu. On the feet, Ferguson truly overwhelms foes with output and pressure. He lands nearly 5 significant strikes per minute while constantly attacking from unique angles that keep opponents guessing. While absorbing over 4 strikes per minute, Ferguson’s granite chin and conditioning allows him to march forward relentlessly until the final bell. His 45% career striking accuracy could be sharper for an elite lightweight. Of his 18 finishes, 10 have come via KO/TKO with nasty punches, elbows, even kicks to finish fights.
In grappling exchanges, Ferguson is extremely dangerous both as wrestler and submission artist. He lands 0.42 takedowns per round, while his numbers don’t jump off the page, it’s his timing and variety securing takedowns that impresses. Ferguson is perfectly content fighting off his back as well, hunting submissions constantly. He attempts nearly 1 submission per round, snagging limbs in transitions or fully committing to attack an arm or neck. This well-rounded grappling arsenal has secured 6 submission wins over his career. Ferguson’s last fight, a loss, demonstrated some vulnerabilities, particularly against younger, more aggressive opponents.
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett Analysis
Meanwhile, Paddy Pimblett brings a 20-3 record, with 16 finishes split evenly between KOs and submissions. Known as an aggressive finisher, Pimblett wastes no time overwhelming foes with power and pace, particularly hunting for submissions. He lands over 4 significant strikes per minute, targeting his opponents’ chins relentlessly. While his 46% striking accuracy is good, the downfall is being hit nearly 3.5 times per minute. Pimblett often trades blows, relying on his chin to absorb shots while delivering fight-altering power himself.
On the mat, Pimblett’s jiu-jitsu shines brightest as the best aspect of his developing, well-rounded MMA game. He attempts a staggering 2.4 submissions per round, snagging limbs and necks with a diverse arsenal of holds to secure taps. If given even a sliver of opportunity, Pimblett pounces for the finish. His wrestling could develop further, completing just 25% of his takedown attempts. But he remains dangerous in scrambles by threatening submissions constantly. His recent win over Gordon showcased his ability to dominate and control the fight, particularly on the ground.
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett Stats
| Ferguson | Pimblett | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 26-9-0 | 20-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:29 | 7:45 |
| Height | 5′ 11″ | 5′ 10″ |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 76″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 4.98 | 4.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 46% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 4.26 | 3.48 |
| Defense | 56% | 41% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 0.42 | 0.97 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 35% | 25% |
| Takedown Defense | 66% | 56% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.9 | 2.4 |
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett Betting Pick
Considering the stats and recent performances, Paddy Pimblett emerges as the pick for this fight. His younger age, aggressive style, and superior grappling skills give him an edge over Ferguson. While Ferguson’s experience and striking are commendable, Pimblett’s ability to control the fight on the ground and his higher submission rate could be the determining factors. Hence, the prediction leans towards Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett for a victory at UFC 296.
Free Pick: Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett -410
The Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett matchup at UFC 296 is a battle that pits experience against youth, strategic striking against dynamic aggression. This fight is not just about who wins but also about the styles and strategies that will prevail. With these free UFC tips today, the tilt is towards Pimblett, but Ferguson’s experience and tenacity should never be underestimated. This bout is set to be a thrilling encounter, adding another exciting chapter to the UFC’s storied history.