UFC ON ESPN 52 Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12-2-23 Betting Picks, Analysis, and Forecast

UFC ON ESPN 52: Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12/2/23 Betting Picks, Analysis, and Forecast

UFC ON ESPN 52: Garcia vs. Costa 12/2/23 – The highly anticipated fight between Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia and Melquizael “Melk Cauthy” Costa is set for December 2, 2023, offering a clash of two dynamic featherweight contenders. Garcia and Costa, both southpaws, bring unique skill sets and impressive records to the octagon. Our expert MMA picks and analysis will provide betting insights for this intriguing UFC on ESPN 52 fight.


UFC ON ESPN 52: Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa 12/2/23 Game Info


When: Saturday, December 2, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET
Where: Moody Center, Austin, Texas, USA


Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia Analysis


Steve Garcia is an experienced UFC veteran with a well-rounded skillset centered around his technical kickboxing. He lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute with solid 56% striking accuracy, using his 75-inch reach well to control distance. Garcia mixes crisp punching combinations with thudding leg and body kicks, attacking his opponent’s legs to limit their mobility. He also has serviceable offensive wrestling, completing 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 44% accuracy rate.


While Garcia doesn’t hunt for submissions often, his superb 94% takedown defense allows him to often dictate where the fight takes place. He uses excellent footwork and movement to circle away from danger, complemented by solid head movement to avoid damage. Garcia has shown issues dealing with pressure fighters who cut off the cage, but his counterstriking is dangerous when opponents overextend.


Garcia scored a dominant decision win over  Nuerdanbieke, pressing the action with fluent striking combinations and stuffing all but one takedown attempt. If Garcia can avoid desperate takedowns and keep this fight standing, he should have an edge over the dangerous but one-dimensional Costa.


Melquizael “Melk Cauthy” Costa Analysis


Melquizael Costa possesses vicious Muay Thai striking as the base of his attack, landing 5.11 significant strikes per minute. He throws flying knees, spinning attacks, and powerful hooks and uppercuts to constantly pressure opponents. Costa targets the body and legs relentlessly before going upstairs, showing solid cardio to maintain his work rate over three rounds.


He couples his striking offense with decent offensive wrestling, averaging 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes. Costa is adept at getting in on the hips during scrambles and has a strong base in the clinch. Once on the mat, he utilizes damaging elbow strikes and shows a slick D’Arce choke to finish opponents. 16 of Costa’s 20 wins have come via stoppage, indicating legitimate one-punch knockout power.


The major question with Costa is his gas tank if fights reach the championship rounds, along with his porous striking defense. He absorbs 2.53 significant strikes per minute while only deflecting 64% of the strikes he faces. Costa’s aggression also leaves openings for counters that more technical strikers like Garcia can exploit. 


Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa Stats


Garcia Costa
Wins/Losses/Draws 14-5-0 20-6-0
Average Fight Time 5:41 12:03
Height 6′ 0″ 5′ 10″
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 75″ 71″
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Strikes Landed per Min. 4.85 5.11
Striking Accuracy 56% 45%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.61 2.53
Defense 46% 64%
Takedowns Average/15 min. 1.51 1.87
Takedown Accuracy 44% 37%
Takedown Defense 94% 42%
Submission Average/15 min. 0.4 0.6


Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa Betting Pick


This matchup contains an intriguing clash of styles, with Garcia’s technical kickboxing against Costa’s unpredictable aggression. Garcia is the superior defensive fighter, but Costa’s blitzing offense can steal rounds. Our insights favor Garcia using his kickboxing prowess to avoid Costa’s early attacks before establishing his own offense. Costa’s questionable gas tank is also a concern if this fight enters the championship rounds.


Free Pick: Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia +205


In conclusion, our multi-handicapping insights suggest Steve Garcia as the likely victor against Melquizael Costa in their upcoming bout at UFC on ESPN 52. Garcia provides solid betting value with +205 underdog odds, making “Mean Machine” the recommended play for Saturday night’s fight card. We projects an exciting stand-up battle between Steve Garcia and Melquizael Costa at UFC on ESPN 52. Rely on our detailed fighter breakdowns and betting predictions to make profitable picks for December 2nd’s featherweight main event from the Moody Center, Austin, Texas, USA.


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