UFC ON ESPN 52: Guida vs. Silva 12/2/23 – The Ultimate Fight comes to Moody Center, Austin, Texas, USA on December 2nd, 2023 for UFC on ESPN 52. In this segment of free MMA tips, the co-main lightweight bout, veteran “The Carpenter” Clay Guida takes on dangerous Brazilian striker “Netto BJJ” Joaquim Silva. This matchup features an experienced grinder versus a dangerous stand-up artist. This analysis delves into their fighting records, styles, and recent performances.
UFC ON ESPN 52: Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva 12/2/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 2, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Moody Center, Austin, Texas, USA |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Clay “The Carpenter” Guida Analysis
Clay Guida enters this event with a wealth of experience behind his 38-20 professional record. Now age 41, Guida relies heavily on his wrestling and relentless cardio to grind opponents into deep waters. Averaging a ridiculous 3.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, Guida constantly pressures foes against the cage and forces the fight to the mat. Top control and dirty boxing comprise his main forms of offense once on the ground.
Additionally, Guida possesses an iron chin that has held up through years of war. Despite absorbing 3.01 significant strikes per minute due to his pressure-heavy style, he has only been finished by strikes three times. Guida is willing to take damage in order to enact his wrestling. This could make him dangerous against strikers who lack the defensive grappling to keep the fight standing.
However, Guida does have clear weaknesses that often hinder his game. His stand-up is relatively rudimentary, based mainly around looping overhands. On the feet, Guida lands just 2.63 significant strikes per minute at a low 33% accuracy clip. His striking defense also leaves much to be desired, with a 61% defense rate that sees Guida absorb heavy blows.
Additionally, Guida’s wrestling can be neutralized by defensive grapplers who stop his takedown entries. This was the case in Guida’s last fight, where Holtzman consistently stuffed takedowns, leading to a TKO of Guida. At age 41 and with 53 combined fights, Guida’s durability finally seems to be waning as well.
Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva Analysis
Joaquim Silva enters sporting a 12-5 record built largely on dynamic striking. Training out of Brazil, he works behind a dangerous Muay Thai skill set. Silva lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute at a 40% accuracy rate, using his length well from a southpaw stance. He attacks with diverse strikes, including sharp elbows and knees. Silva also sets a high pace, pressuring opponents rather than backing down.
Defensively, Silva utilizes solid footwork and head movement to avoid damage. He has proven a difficult target to hit cleanly, holding a 52% significant strike defense rate. Once comfortable letting his strikes fly, Silva can pour on heavy offense in a hurry. This makes him a threat for flash knockouts against any lightweight.
Silva does have clear deficiencies in his wrestling and ground game, however. He secures just 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, almost never looking to bring the fight to the mat himself. And though his 58% takedown defense rate is respectable, he has struggled when pressured by elite wrestlers. Noticeably, Silva lost a decision to Tsarukyan last time out, with Tsarukyan controlling the fight with takedowns and top control. This suggests a path to victory for the wrestling of Guida. But Silva will have his own opening if he can operate from range.
Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva Stats
| Guida | Silva | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 38-20-0 | 12-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:21 | 9:33 |
| Height | 5′ 7″ | 5′ 8″ |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 70″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 2.63 | 3.71 |
| Striking Accuracy | 33% | 40% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 3.01 | 4.79 |
| Defense | 61% | 52% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 3.16 | 0.17 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 36% | 50% |
| Takedown Defense | 69% | 58% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva Betting Pick
This matchup will come down to where the fight takes place. If Guida implements his wrestling game plan, he should control Silva en route to a decision win or even a late stoppage. But if Silva can keep it standing and land heavy shots, he has the ability to test Guida’s chin as others have. Considering Guida’s mileage and recent KO losses, Silva seems the right side at -300 odds for those handicapping this sports matchup.
Free Pick: Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva -300
In conclusion, our sports matchup handicapping favors Joaquim Silva as the probable winner against Clay Guida in their upcoming UFC on ESPN 52 encounter. Silva’s striking ability, combined with his moderately effective grappling defense, positions him well to overcome Guida’s wrestling-centric approach. This matchup promises an engaging blend of styles, offering a captivating contest for MMA fans and a valuable opportunity for bettors.