Miami Dolphins (8-3) vs. Washington Commanders (4-8)
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders 12/3/23 – The 8-3 Miami Dolphins travel to face the 4-8 Washington Commanders this Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET in NFL Week 13 action. With pro handicapping insights in mind, let’s break down this matchup between teams headed in opposite directions.
The Miami Dolphins have compiled over 3500 total yards behind the arm of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his trio of talented pass catchers. Tagovailoa has taken his game to the next level, with career bests in completion percentage (69.8%) and passer rating (103.7). However, Miami has struggled on the road, going just 3-8 SU in its last 11 away contests.
On the other side, Washington Commanders has lost five of its last six games. The Commanders have also been inconsistent offensively, ranking 25th while averaging just 317.5 total yards per game. Rookie quarterback Sam Howell has recently taken over signal calling duties. In his first start in Week 12, Howell showed promise, tossing one touchdown while adding 69 rushing yards. Top wideout Terry McLaurin is reliable, but lead running back Brian Robinson Jr. has yet to provide consistent production on the ground.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Game Info
| When: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET |
| Where: | FedEx Field |
| TV: | FOX |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
Tua Tagovailoa QB vs. Sam Howell QB
Tagovailoa has taken a significant leap this season, evident by his 103.7 passer rating and 69.8% completion percentage – both career highs. He has developed strong chemistry with receivers Hill and Waddle. However, Tua has been more turnover-prone recently with four picks over his last three contests. He faces a Washington defense that has been stout against the pass at home, allowing just 226.5 passing yards per game in Landover. Tagovailoa’s accuracy and poise should help move the chains, but he must value the football.
On the other side, Sam Howell displayed flashes of promise in his first NFL start in Week 12, tossing one touchdown while showing mobility with 69 rushing yards. However, growing pains remain for the rookie. Howell faces an aggressive Dolphins defense that ranks fifth in the NFL with 37 sacks. If Miami’s pass rush overwhelms the young quarterback, turnovers could come into play. Howell should fare better at home, but consistency is no guarantee.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Miami Dolphins -280, Total Odds: 48.5
Miami opens as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road, indicating respect from oddsmakers regarding its status as a playoff contender. The Dolphins are also receiving 59% of spread bets. However, given Miami’s struggles away from home, this line could tighten later in the week. The total remains low at just 48.5 points as both defenses have held up lately. The under also has value with Washington’s past trends against AFC East foes.
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends
Miami boasts an impressive 10-4 ATS record this season, covering the spread consistently with its dynamic offense. However, the Dolphins have really struggled on the road, going just 3-8 SU in their last 11 contests away from home. Miami has also not fared well against NFC opponents, covering the spread in only two of its past six matchups.
Washington Commanders Betting Trends
Washington has disappointed lately, with just one win over its last six games. However, the Commanders have gone over the total in four of their last five outings. They also play significantly better at home, covering four of five in Landover this season. Notably, Washington has played very well against AFC East opponents recently, going 6-0 to the under across the past seven meetings.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders 12/3/23 Betting Picks
Sunday’s contest will likely come down to which version of these two inconsistent teams shows up. The Dolphins clearly boast the superior roster, but their struggles away from Miami are real. The Commanders have really struggled overall but tend to play much better football at home. The trends also point to value on the under, given Washington’s past success against AFC East foes.
Look for Miami to come out hot offensively behind the arm of Tagovailoa and his talented receivers. However, the Dolphins could cool off later in the game, facing a stingy Washington defense on the road. This one may come down to the wire. Some player prop bets worth considering are Tagovailoa going over 1.5 passing touchdowns along with Tyreek Hill eclipsing his receiving yards total. The Dolphins should pull this out, but the Commanders have value with the points at home. Additionally, the under looks like a strong play given the trends and projected pace. Football team insights suggest this being a grind-it-out type affair.
Free Pick and Prediction: Miami Dolphins 23, Washington Commanders 20