Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) vs. Michigan State Spartans (4-7)
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans 11/24/23 – The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Michigan State Spartans in a Big Ten rivalry matchup on Friday, November 24 at Ford Field. Penn State comes into this one as heavy 21-point favorites, according to the latest NCAAF daily free tips, looking to finish their regular season strong ahead of conference championship weekend.
Penn State has one of the most efficient offenses in college football, led by quarterback Drew Allar. The sophomore has thrown for over 2000 yards with 21 touchdowns and just 1 interception, demonstrating poise beyond his years. Running back Kaytron Allen adds balance to the attack, racking up 714 rushing yards at nearly 5 yards per carry. Top target KeAndre Lambert-Smith is a big play threat, averaging 12.5 yards per reception. This trio will look to continue their success against a porous Spartans defense surrendering over 400 yards per game.
For Michigan State, quarterback Noah Kim has shown flashes in his first year as starter, but he has struggled with consistency and ball security. Kim has 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while being sacked 5 times. His top weapons are running back Nathan Carter and wideout Montorie Foster Jr., who have combined for nearly 1300 scrimmage yards and 7 scores. However, the Spartans offense as a whole ranks near the bottom nationally in yards per play. They face an uphill battle against a stout Nittany Lions defense allowing just 16 points per contest.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans 11/24/23 Game Info
| When: | Friday, November 24, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET |
| Where: | Ford Field |
| TV: | NBC |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Drew Allar QB vs. Noah Kim QB
Drew Allar has quickly developed into an excellent game manager for Penn State. He makes good decisions with the football, demonstrated by his sterling 21:1 TD to INT ratio. Allar is an accurate intermediate thrower and excels at placing touch on deep balls. He can buy time and make plays with his legs when the pocket collapses. Allar will look to carve up a Michigan State secondary that has conceded 19 passing scores already this season. His efficient play and avoidance of drive-killing mistakes gives Penn State a significant edge at the quarterback position.
Noah Kim inherited the starting job in difficult circumstances for the Spartans. He flashes arm talent but is still gaining confidence and poise in the pocket. Too often Kim rushes his throws under pressure, leading to misfires or interceptions. He doesn’t consistently progress through full-field reads. These issues have hampered the Michigan State aerial attack all season. For Kim to give his team a chance, he must make quick decisions and take care of the football. Avoiding the big mistake will be key against an opportunistic Nittany Lions defense.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions -21, Total Odds: 43.5
The Nittany Lions have been rolling behind a multi-dimensional offense and have playmakers at every level defensively. Meanwhile Michigan State has dropped 7 of their last 9 contests, struggling in nearly every phase. The total opened at 43.5, but Penn State should have little issue eclipsing that number themselves against a Spartans unit surrendering 34 points per game over their last 3. Back Penn State’s superior talent to win and cover with room to spare.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends
Penn State has covered the spread at an impressive 14-3-1 clip over their previous 18 matchups. They are equally dominant straight up, going 14-2 SU across that same sample of games. When facing conference foes, the Nittany Lions shine even brighter, owning a 10-2 SU record in their last 12 Big Ten battles. In 7 meetings with East Division rivals, Penn State is 7-2 SU. The Nittany Lions have been a smart bet in November games as well, covering the number in 5 of their previous 7 contests played in the 11th month. Finally, unders have hit in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 outings occurring in Week 13.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends
Michigan State has fallen on hard times lately, with a 2-7 SU record over their past 9 overall. However, the Spartans have fared better historically in this rivalry series, going over the total in 14 of the previous 20 meetings with Penn State. When facing conference opponents, Sparty is just 2-8 SU across their last 10 Big Ten matchups. Against the East Division the struggles continue, as Michigan State has dropped 6 of 7 SU. On the positive side for bettors, the Spartans are 10-2-1 ATS over their 13 most recent Week 13 battles. Playing on Friday has not been kind, though, with 4 of the last 5 Michigan State games falling under the total.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans 11/24/23 Betting Picks
Penn State holds clear advantages on both sides of the ball and enters this rivalry matchup with all of the momentum. The Nittany Lions are clicking at precisely the right time and have playmakers capable of turning the tide at a moment’s notice. For those interested in premium spread picks, Penn State’s current form makes them a standout choice. Michigan State has battled inconsistency and mistakes all season long, especially away from home. Back Drew Allar and the Penn State offense to build a big lead early and coast to a comfortable victory. Lay the points with the red hot Nittany Lions as they look to make another statement heading into championship weekend.
Free Pick and Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions 38, Michigan State Spartans 13