Navy Midshipmen (5-5) vs. SMU Mustangs (9-2)
Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs 11/25/23 – As Navy Midshipmen prepare to face SMU Mustangs in a key Week 13 matchup, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Navy is currently 5-5 with SMU boasting an impressive 9-2 record; Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium should prove a thrilling encounter between these two powerhouses of NCAAF football; starting at 12:00 PM ET and being broadcast live by ESP2, multi-handicapper picks have begun preparing their predictions on its outcome.
Navy Midshipmen have shown remarkable grit, persevering through a challenging season with poise. Alex Tecza, Navy’s dynamic running back, has been one of their mainstays – amassing 723 rushing yards and five touchdowns on an unprecedented 6.3% average yard per carry pace – while wide receiver Eli Heidenreich provides aerial threat with his 320 receiving yards and four touchdowns to complement Tecza’s stats.
SMU Mustangs, boasting an 8-2 record, credit much of their success to running back Jaylan Knighton and wide receiver Jake Bailey’s stellar performances. Knighton amassed 645 rushing yards and six touchdowns; Bailey amassed 438 receiving yards that have proven instrumental to their team’s passing game.
Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs 11/25/23 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium |
| TV: | ESP2 |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Tai Lavatai QB vs. Preston Stone QB
Navy quarterback Tai Lavatai has thrown for just 522 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, instead doing most of his damage with his legs. He has 375 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground. While not asked to throw often in Navy’s triple-option offense, Lavatai has been efficient when he does pass. However, SMU’s talented secondary could bait him into some mistakes.
SMU quarterback Preston Stone has put together an outstanding season. He’s thrown for over 2,800 yards with 25 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions, good for a 155.1 passer rating. He excels at finding receivers downfield and will challenge Navy’s vulnerable pass defense all game long. Stone is lethal in the red zone as well, already accounting for 25 total touchdowns.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: SMU Mustangs -1200, Total 45.5
The Mustangs are nearly three touchdown favorites at home, indicating the oddsmakers see this as a likely blowout. The total is quite low at just 45.5 points. That suggests oddsmakers expect Navy to struggle moving the chains. Still, there could be some value in taking Navy and the points. As long as they avoid turnovers, their triple-option attack should allow them to control time of possession and shorten the game. The under also looks enticing if Navy can contain Stone and the SMU aerial assault.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER 5 of Navy’s last 6 games. Indicating oddsmakers tend to overestimate their scoring potential. Navy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against SMU. The Midshipmen have had the Mustangs’ number against the spread. Navy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games. The Midshipmen have been surprisingly competitive in opposing stadiums.
SMU Mustangs Betting Trends
SMU is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games. The Mustangs are the hottest team in the AAC heading into this matchup. The total has gone OVER in 6 of SMU’s last 8 matchups with Navy. Expect some offensive fireworks. SMU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games. The Mustangs have defended their field well during this winning streak.
Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs 11/25/23 Betting Picks
Analyzing data and trends, it becomes clear that SMU Mustangs are likely the superior team when playing at home. Their dynamic offense, led by Preston Stone, should give Navy’s defense significant trouble. However, Navy is well known for covering spreads at times making them a good bet against wide margins.
Betting-wise, the Mustangs appear more likely to win; however, given their proven track record as an underdog team they may cover a +18 spread and win on total score despite trends diverging between teams; given SMU’s offensive capabilities it seems prudent to bet OVER in that scenario.
Best NCAAF picks would suggest betting on SMU for the win but Navy to cover the spread. Additionally, considering the offensive strength of both teams, betting on the total score to go OVER could be a wise choice.
Free Pick and Prediction: SMU Mustangs 34, Navy Midshipmen 20