New Mexico State Aggies (7-3) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-4)
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 11/11/23 – As NCAAF Week 11 kicks into gear, New Mexico State Aggies of 7-3 record are set to face Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-4). Their matchup at Houchens Industries L. T. Smith Stadium should bring plenty of drama and tension, with betting enthusiasts keeping a keen eye on NCAAF free projections as both squads go head-to-head for victory that could decide their seasons.
New Mexico State has demonstrated remarkable consistency this season, evidenced by their 7-0 against-the-spread record over their last seven games. Beating the spread indicates a team with strong coaching that outshines expectations; their offense has been propelled by Diego Pavia (rushing 659 yards and five touchdowns) and Jonathan Brady (458 receiving yards with three scores) respectively; Pavia has become an integral component for his Aggie teammates as an underrated ground game contributor; thus his performance could prove pivotal in this upcoming contest.
On the other side, the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky have had a more turbulent season but have shown resilience, especially at home with a 4-1 SU record. They’ll bank heavily on the skills of running back Elijah Young and wide receiver Malachi Corley. Young, with 309 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, along with Corley’s impressive 657 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, form the offensive backbone for Western Kentucky.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 11/11/23 Game Info
|When:||Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET|
|Where:||Houchens Industries L. T. Smith Stadium|
Diego Pavia QB vs. Austin Reed QB
Diego Pavia, New Mexico State’s quarterback, has garnered commendable statistics this season, accumulating 2116 passing yards with a completion rate just shy of 60%. His tally of 17 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions portrays a well-measured approach to offensive leadership. Pavia’s proficiency in executing long passes, evidenced by his season-long of 80 yards, has notably influenced his team’s offensive dynamics. Nevertheless, Pavia’s susceptibility to defensive pressure, having been sacked 16 times, remains a concern. His adeptness at pocket maneuvering and rapid decision-making will be tested against the robust defense of Western Kentucky.
In contrast, Austin Reed of Western Kentucky has amassed 2398 passing yards, with a slightly superior completion rate of 60.1% and a total of 21 touchdown passes. Although his average yards per pass attempt trail behind Pavia’s, his consistent passer rating and resilience in the pocket—evidenced by a mere 5 sacks—underline his reliability as a quarterback. Reed’s strategic play, characterized by swift pass releases and judicious progression reads, is anticipated to play a significant role in challenging the defense of New Mexico State.
NCAAF Odds/Point Spread: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -190, Total Odds 56.5
The odds place Western Kentucky as the favorites with a -190 moneyline, indicating that the bookmakers have faith in the Hilltoppers’ ability to secure a win on their home turf. The point spread sits at -4.5 for Western Kentucky, suggesting a close contest. Bettors should closely evaluate the over/under of 56.5, considering the trends indicate a propensity for lower-scoring games for both teams.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
The Aggies have been an ATS juggernaut lately, and their 7-0 ATS streak is something that cannot be ignored. Their defensive prowess is highlighted by the trend of the total going UNDER in 7 of their last 8 games. On the road, this trend is even more pronounced, with the total going UNDER in their last 5 away games. This indicates a disciplined defensive unit that could give the Hilltoppers’ offense a run for their money.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Trends
Western Kentucky’s betting trends reveal a team that performs reliably against the spread in November, with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games during this month. Additionally, they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 11. Their record against the spread in recent weeks, combined with a strong home-field advantage, could be influential in their performance against the Aggies.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 11/11/23 Betting Picks
Taking into account the data and the current dynamics of both teams, the betting trends suggest a lean towards New Mexico State to cover the spread, considering their recent ATS performance. However, Western Kentucky’s home advantage and their knack for covering in November present a counter-argument.
In terms of the better pick, while the Hilltoppers are favorites, New Mexico State’s defense could make them a valuable underdog bet, especially with the points. The total suggests a leaning towards the UNDER, consistent with both teams’ recent games. Premium game strategies would involve looking at prop bets surrounding key players like Pavia and Corley, who are potential game-changers with their respective offensive contributions.
Free Pick and Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies 27, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 24