Free MLB Picks For Today 9/12/2023
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Yankees at Red Sox Game 1—Randy Vazquez to start for New York. Vazquez has seven appearances producing an ERA of 2.36 and WHIP of 1.16. The rookie righthander fans 19.1% with 11.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 37.3% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 5.47 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold.
Nick Pivetta to start for Boston. Pivetta appeared in 34 games posting an ERA of 4.54 and WHIP of 1.23. The veteran had an elite strikeout mark of 30.4% with 8.5% walks. Ground balls sit at 34.7% with 1.69 home runs per nine innings.
Pivetta has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of four starts. Red Sox have won seven straight against the Yankees. Past seven games New York hitting .204. Play Boston -135 in Game 1.
Yankees at Red Sox Game 2—Carlos Rodon to start for New York. Rodon in ten starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 6.60 and WHIP of 1.40. The nine year lefthander is striking out 20.1% with 10.3% walks. Ground balls served at 27.2% with 2.33 home runs per nine innings.
Kutter Crawford to start for Boston. Crawford appeared in 27 games delivering an ERA of 4.36 and WHIP of 1.16. The righty fans 24.1% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls sit at 35.2% with 1.34 home runs per nine innings.
Red Sox 45-29 facing left handed starters this year with a +15.4 unit return. Rodon on the road an ERA of 6.63. He just gave up seven earned runs in 3 2/3rd innings against the Tigers. Play Boston -117 in Game 2.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Royals at White Sox Game 1–Brady Singer starts for Kansas City. Singer has 27 starts on the campaign posting an ERA of 5.34 and WHIP of 1.42. The fourth year righthander has a strikeout mark of 19.5% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls served at 48.6% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.
Dylan Cease will start for Chicago. Cease in 29 starts an ERA of 4.98 and WHIP of 1.48. The righty fans 26.6% with 10.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 36.8% with 1.05 home runs per nine innings. Royals 23-41 against losing teams with a -14.3 unit loss.
Royals 5-26 on the road against a starting pitcher that averaged 5 strikeouts per game or greater. Singer has allowed sixteen runs in his past three starts working 12 2/3rd innings. Play Chicago -125 in Game 1.
Royals at White Sox Game 2—Jordan Lyles will start for Kansas City. Lyles in 27 starts deals an ERA of 6.24 and WHIP of 1.27. The thirteen year righthander is fanning 15.8% with 6.2% walks. Ground balls dealt at 34% with 2.02 home runs per nine innings.
Touki Toussaint will start for Chicago. Toussaint in sixteen appearances an ERA of 4.71 and WHIP of 1.43. The righty has a strikeout mark of 22.6% with 15.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 50.8% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings. Past ten games Royals bullpen an ERA of 5.15.
White Sox 10-2 to the over in their past 12 games against teams that are outscored by one run or greater per game. White Sox 25-10 to the over when favored by -100 to -150 this year. Play Kansas City and Chicago over 9 in Game 2.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Cardinals at Orioles—Adam Wainwright to start for St Louis. Wainwright has nineteen starts in 2023 posts an ERA of 8.19 and WHIP of 1.98. The nineteen year veteran strikes out only 11.3% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls served at 38.3% with 2.02 home runs per nine innings.
John Means to start for Baltimore. He returned from shoulder surgery. He last pitched on April 13th in 2022 and returns from shoulder surgery. A career ERA of 3.81 with WHIP of 1.08 in 65 starts and five relief appearances. Means has 308 strikeouts in 356 2/3rd innings.
Wainwright past five starts allowed 24 runs in 23 1/3rd innings. Cardinals bullpen past ten games an ERA of 5.08. Orioles starters past three games have gone 3 1/3rd, 4 1/3rd and 4 1/3rd innings. Means doesn’t figure to go deep here taxing the Orioles bullpen even more. Play St Louis and Baltimore over 10.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Nationals at Pirates—Joan Adon will start for Washington. Adon in eight appearances in the year carries an ERA of 5.56 and WHIP of 1.24. The righthander is striking out 19.9% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls served at 36.9% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.61 does suggest a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
Bailey Falter to start for Pittsburgh. Falter appeared in fifteen games with an ERA of 4.65 and WHIP of 1.34. The lefthander fans 17.8% with 5.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 39.8% with 1.63 home runs per nine innings. Nationals 29-27 facing a losing team this year with a +12.6 unit return.
Nationals are hitting .270 against left-handed starters and have a +6.5 units this year against them. Falter at home an ERA of 7.33 and WHIP of 1.50. Play Washington +127.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Braves at Phillies—Max Fried to start for Atlanta. Fried in 12 starts delivers an ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.17. The seventh year lefthander is striking out 24.9% with 5.6% walks. Ground ball rate of 56% with limited home run damage.
Zack Wheeler to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler has 28 starts with an ERA of 3.49 and WHIP of 1.05. The righthander strikes out 27.7% with 4.6% walks. Grounders sit at 41.6% with 0.85 home runs per nine innings.
Fried on the road an ERA of 1.73 and WHIP of 0.96. Team record behind Fried on the road this year is 7-0. Wheeler at home an ERA of 3.68. Team record behind Fried 36-12 when lined between -100 and -150. Play Atlanta -118.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Reds at Tigers—Brandon Williamson to start for Cincinnati. Williamson in nineteen starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.20 and WHIP of 1.24. The rookie lefthander a strikeout mark of 21.3% with 8.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.1% with 1.37 home runs per nine innings.
Joey Wentz to start for Detroit. Wentz has 21 appearances, dealing with an ERA of 6.65 and WHIP of 1.65. The second year lefty fans 19.9% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls sit at 36.4% with 2.08 home runs per nine innings.
Wentz has been hammered at home with an ERA of 7.42 and WHIP of 1.71. He returns from the minors with unimpressive numbers. Play Cincinnati -118.
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Rangers at Blue Jays—Max Scherzer to start for Texas. Scherzer has 26 starts in 2023 with an ERA of 3.91 and WHIP of 1.13. The sixteen year veteran fans 28.6% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 32.7% with 1.71 home runs per nine innings.
Hyun Jin Ryu to start for Toronto. Ryu in seven starts an ERA of 2.65 and WHIP of 1.06. The lefthander is striking out 20.3% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 50% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.23 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Texas hitting .270 against lefthanders and putting up six runs per game on them. Both bullpens past ten games have an ERA well over six. Ryu averaging just five innings per start in his past three starts. Scherzer was roughed up for seven runs in three innings against the Astros last time out. Play Texas and Toronto over 8.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Diamondbacks at Mets—Ryne Nelson to start for Arizona. Nelson has 25 starts in 2023 delivering an ERA of 5.30 and WHIP of 1.42. The righthander is striking out 15.2% with 7% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37% with 1.52 home runs per nine innings.
Jose Butto will start for New York. Butto in five appearances an ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.57. The righty fans 17% with 16% walks. Ground balls sit at 48.4% with limited home run damage. Diamondbacks have won five of six. Mets have lost four of five.
Arizona is 43-26 facing losing teams with a +14.3 unit return. Nelson on the road an ERA of 3.18 and WHIP of 1.08 with team record of 8-6. New York bullpen the past ten games an ERA of 6.03 and Diamondbacks at 2.20. Play Arizona -112.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Rays at Twins—Zack Littell to start for Tampa Bay. Littell has 24 starts in 2023 produces an ERA of 4.29 and WHIP of 1.21. The righthander strikes out 18.8% with 3% walks. Ground balls dished at 41% with 1.39 home runs per nine innings.
Joe Ryan will start for Minnesota. Ryan in 25 starts has an ERA of 4.21 and WHIP of 1.12. The third year righty is striking out 29.1% with 4.8% walks. Ground balls come in at 31.6% with 1.72 home runs per nine innings.
Rays have won five straight against the Twins. Littell coming off a good outing holding the Mariners to one run in eight innings. Rays bullpen past ten games an ERA of 1.45 and Twins at 4.46. Twins -12 units facing right handed starters this season. Littell on the road an ERA of 3.04 with WHIP of 1.12. Play Tampa Bay +117.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Marlins at Brewers—Edward Cabrera is the primary pitcher for Miami. Cabrera in eighteen appearances posts an ERA of 4.56 and WHIP of 1.43. The righthander a strikeout rate of 28.7% with 15.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 53.9% with 1.11 home runs per nine innings.
Freddy Peralta will start for Milwaukee. Peralta has 27 starts with an ERA of 3.89 and WHIP of 1.13. The righty has an elite strikeout mark of 30.8% with 8.7% walks. Grounders served at 40.7% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
Cabrera on the road has an ERA of 6.28 and WHIP of 1.55 with a team record of 3-7. Peralta past three starts a WHIP of 0.72. Play Milwaukee -166.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Athletics at Astros—J.P. Sears to start for Oakland. Sears in 28 starts in 2023 carries an ERA of 4.51 and WHIP of 1.23. The second year lefthander is striking out 21.9% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls served at 28.2% with 1.84 home runs per nine innings.
Justin Verlander to start for Houston. Verlander has 23 starts with an ERA of 3.23 and WHIP of 1.16. The nineteen year veteran posts a K rate of 21% with 7.1% walks. Ground balls dished at 35.9% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Sears in his past two starts has allowed one earned run in eleven innings.
Verlander has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of four starts. Verlander 19-6 to the under facing American League teams averaging 4.4 runs per game or fewer. Oakland hitting only .206 in divisional games. Verlander a WHIP of 1.03 at home. Play Oakland and Houston under 8.5.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Cubs at Rockies—Javier Assad to start for Chicago. Assad appeared in 26 games on the year dealing an ERA of 2.83 and WHIP of 1.20. The second year righthander strikes out 18.1% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls served at 47.2% with 1.07 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.46 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Chris Flexen to start for Colorado. Flexen has 25 appearances with an ERA of 7.36 and WHIP of 1.74. The righty is striking out 16% with 8.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 41.2% with 2.57 home runs per nine innings. Assad has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts.
Flexen in his past three starts allowed thirteen runs in 13 innings. Rockies bullpen the past ten games an ERA of 8.07. Colorado 4-16 to the run line facing National League teams averaging 5 runs per game or greater with a -12.4 unit loss. Play Chicago on run line -1.5 runs at -120.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Angels at Mariners—Patrick Sandoval starts for Los Angeles. Sandoval in 25 starts on the year carries an ERA of 4.31 and WHIP of 1.48. The fifth year lefthander has 19.5% strikeouts with 11.2% walks. Ground ball rate of 47.8% with limited home run damage.
Bryan Woo to start for Seattle. Woo has fourteen starts with an ERA of 4.50 and WHIP of 1.19. The rookie righthander fans 23.1% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls dealt at 39.6% with 1.16 home runs per nine innings. Los Angeles has won four of five.
Mariners have lost seven of nine. Woo in his last start gave up five earned runs in five innings to the Reds. Seattle bullpen in the past ten games an ERA of 5.59. Seattle -28.1 units when favored by -150 or greater past three seasons. Woo at home an ERA of 4.50. Play Los Angeles +186.
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Guardians at Giants—Cal Quantrill to start for Cleveland. Quantrill in fifteen starts on the campaign deals an ERA of 5.70 and WHIP of 1.46. The fifth year righthander a career low 13% strikeouts with 7.6% walks. Grounders sit at 40.1% with 0.91 home runs per nine innings.
Sean Manaea to start for San Francisco. Manaea appeared in 33 games with an ERA of 5.00 and WHIP of 1.32. The veteran lefthander does strikeout 27.2% batters with 9.9% walks. The ground balls come in at 37.7% with 1.15 home runs per nine innings.
Quantrill since returning to the rotation has allowed two earned runs in 12 innings. Manaea has allowed 22 runs in his past four starts working 13 1/3rd innings. Team record behind Manaea 8-14 against losing teams with a -12 unit loss. Team record behind Quantrill 13-6 as an underdog of +100 to +150. Play Cleveland +118.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Betting Pick Prediction 9/12/2023
Padres at Dodgers—Michael Wacha will start for San Diego. Wacha has 20 starts in 2023 posting an ERA of 2.99 and WHIP of 1.17. The eleven year veteran is striking out 22.3% with 8.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 34% with 0.97 home runs per nine innings.
Lance Lynn to start for Los Angeles. Lynn has 28 starts carrying an ERA of 6.09 and WHIP of 1.42. The righthander has 24.3% K’s with 7.9% walks. Ground ball rate of 37.6% with 2.25 home runs per nine innings. Wacha past three starts allowed nine earned runs in 15 1/3rd innings.
Lynn in his past two starts allowed fifteen earned runs in nine innings. LA bullpen used heavily in three of four days. If Lynn struggles, he could be sacrificed out there to pitch deep despite ineffectiveness. Lynn 9-1 to the over facing teams that average 1.25 home runs per game or greater.
Dodgers 40-20 to the over when lined between -125 and -175. Past seven games San Diego averaging 5.4 runs and Dodgers 5.9 runs per game. Play Los Angeles and San Diego over 9.5.
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