Free MLB Picks For Today 9/30/2022
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Reds at Cubs—Graham Ashcraft the starter for Cincinnati. Ashcraft in seventeen starts produces an ERA 4.18 and WHIP 1.36. The righthander pitches to contact with 15.6% with 5.4% walks. Ground ball rate 54.9% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings.
Adrian Sampson will start for Chicago. Sampson in nineteen appearances has an ERA 3.23 plus WHIP 1.25. The righty fans 16.5% with 6.2% walks. Grounders 40.3% with 0.86 home runs per nine innings. Reds are swept in a three game series at Pittsburgh. They have lost six of seven.
Cubs sweep the Phillies in a three game home series and have won seven of eight. Team record behind Ashcraft 6-2 on the road against teams striking out seven or greater per game this season. Play Cincinnati +122.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Phillies at Nationals—Bailey Falter to start for Philadelphia in Game 1. Falter in eighteen appearances has an ERA 4.21 with WHIP 1.23. The lefthander strikes out 21% with 4.6% walks. Ground balls served at 31.5% with 1.87 home runs per nine innings.
Erick Fedde the starter for Washington. Fedde starts in 25 games an ERA 5.34 plus WHIP 1.57. The righthander a strikeout mark of 16.9% with 10.4% walks. Ground ball rate of 41.4% with 1.35 home runs per nine innings. Phillies gets swept in a three game series at the Cubs with the 2-0 defeat.
Phillies have lost five straight. Nationals salvaged the finale of their three games series at home with Atlanta with the 3-2 win on Wednesday. Phillies 5-12 on the road against bad teams with .380 win percentage or worse past three seasons. Nationals bullpen an ERA 2.04 past five games. Play Washington +170 in Game 1.
Noah Syndergaard starts Game 2 for Philadelphia. Syndergaard in 24 appearances an ERA 4.12 with WHIP 1.28. The righthander strikes out 16.9% with 5.3% walks. Ground ball rate 41.5% with 0.98 home runs per nine innings. Anibal Sanchez the starter for Washington. Sanchez has thirteen starts posting an ERA 4.06 plus WHIP 1.24.
The veteran pitches to contact with 15.6% with 11.2% walks. Ground balls 37.9% with 1.82 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 6.02 suggests a rise in ERA with his advanced numbers. Play Philadelphia on run line in Game 2 -1.5 runs.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Red Sox at Blue Jays—Nick Pivetta to start for Boston. Pivetta in 31 starts posts and ERA 4.48 and WHIP 1.36. The righthander a strikeout mark of 23% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls 39.2% with 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
Alek Manoah will start for Toronto. Manoah has 30 starts producing an ERA 2.31 plus WHIP 1.00. The righty strikes out 23% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls come in at 37.4% with 0.76 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 3.36 suggests a rise in ERA with his form.
Red Sox win three of four in Baltimore with their 5-3 win on Thursday. Blue Jays drop two of three at home to the Yankees. Past ten games Boston hitting .286 against righthanders.
Both bullpens in poor form in this period with ERA’s over five. Pivetta 16-8 to the over facing teams hitting .265 or lower on the season. Pivetta 11-3 to the over during the season half of this season. Play Boston and Toronto over 8.5.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Orioles at Yankees—Jordan Lyles will start for Baltimore. Lyles in 31 starts posts an ERA 4.55 plus WHIP 1.41. The righthander a strikeout mark of 18% with 6.8% walks. Ground balls 40.3% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings.
Domingo German to start for NYY. German appeared in thirteen games with an ERA 3.30 with WHIP 1.12. The righthander fans 18% with 5.9% walks. Grounders 37.9% with 1.29 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 4.42 an indicator of a rise in ERA based on his numbers.
Orioles drop three of four at Boston. Yankees win tow of three in Toronto and have won eight of nine. Past ten games Baltimore hitting .294 but a bullpen ERA 6.39.
Yankees in this period hitting .272 against righty’s with bullpen ERA 4.25. Orioles 11-3 to the over facing a good team with .540 to .620 win percentage the second half of this season.
Lyles 14-5 to the over facing a team outscoring opponents by .5 runs or greater the past two seasons. German 9-1 to the over facing a team hitting .260 or worse past two seasons. Play Baltimore and NY Yankees over 8.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Royals at Guardians—Brady Singer the starter for the Royals. Singer in 26 appearances has an ERA 2.99 and WHIP 1.13. The righthander is striking out 24.2% with 5.7% walks. Ground ball rate 48.9% with 1.04 home runs per nine innings.
Aaron Civale the starter for Cleveland. Civale starts in eighteen games an ERA 5.19 with WHIP 1.25. The righty strikeout mark of 23.2% with 5.8% walks. Grounders 39.8% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. His FIP 3.65 an indicator of a drop in ERA based on his advanced numbers.
Royals get swept in a three game series at Detroit. Guardians win two of three at home to the Rays. Guardians 16-2 facing bad teams with .380 to .460 win percentage the second half of this season. Team record behind Civale 10-1 facing teams getting outscored by 1 or greater runs the past two seasons. Play Cleveland -130.
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Twins at Tigers—Joe Ryan will start for Minnesota. Ryan in 26 starts has an ERA 3.70 with WHIP 1.11. The righthander a strikeout mark of 24.7% with 7.9% walks. Ground balls served at 27.7% with 1.28 home runs per nine innings.
Tyler Alexander will start for Detroit. Alexander appeared in 25 games posting an ERA 4.68 and WHIP 1.28. The lefthander pitches to contact with 13.2% strikeouts and 5.3% walks. Ground balls dished at 35% with 1.49 home runs per nine innings.
Twins win two of three against the White Sox dropping the finale 4-3 at home. Tigers win three straight at home to KC for a six game wins steak. Will back Ryan who’s form has held steady despite the Twins problems winning teams. Play Minnesota -145.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Mets at Braves—Jacob deGrom will start for NYM. deGrom in ten starts produces an ERA 2.93 with WHIP 0.74. The veteran an elite strikeout rate of 41.9% with 3.7% walks. Ground balls 3.7% with 0.93 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 1.74 suggests a drop in ERA based on his numbers.
Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta. Fried has 29 starts with an ERA 2.50 and WHIP 1.02. The lefthander is striking out 23.4% with 4.5% walks. Grounders 51.1% with limited home run damage.
Mets split their two game series with the Marlins. Braves win two of three at home to the Nationals. Mets 41-21 as a favorite of -100 to -150 this season. Past ten games NYM hitting .315 against lefthanders. Play NY Mets -122.
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Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Marlins at Brewers—Sandy Alcantara the starter for Miami. Alcantara in 31 starts carries an ERA 2.32 and WHIP 0.99. The righthander is striking out 23.2% with 5.8% walks. Grounders 53.5% with limited home runs damage. A FIP 3.05 an indicator or a rising ERA based on his form.
Corbin Burnes will start for Milwaukee. Burnes started 31 games with an ERA 3.11 and WHIP 1.00. The righty an elite strikeout mark of 30.3% with 6.7% walks. Ground balls dished at 46.3% with 1.08 home runs per nine innings.
Marlins win the opener of this series 4-2. Brewers have lost three of four. Brewers 2-9 at home in these extreme low total games of 6 to 6.5. Milwaukee 10-19 facing a starting pitcher with ERA of 3.20 or better the past two seasons. Play Miami +152.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Rays at Astros—Drew Rasmussen to start for Tampa Bay. Rasmussen in 27 starts deals an ERA 2.85 plus WHIP 1.06. The righthander striking out 21.9% with 5.6% walks. Grounders 46.5% with 0.78 home runs per nine innings.
Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros. Valdez in 29 starts an ERA 2.69 and WHIP 1.14. The lefthander is fanning 23.3% with 8.1% walks. Ground ball rate 66.5% with limited home run damage. Rays lost two of three at Cleveland and lost four of five overall held to one run in each of those losses.
Astros split their two game series with the Diamondbacks at home. Rays 13-24 facing a power team averaging 1.25 home runs or greater this season. Play Houston.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Pirates at Cardinals—Johan Oviedo to start for the Pirates. Oviedo appeared in 19 starts posting an ERA 3.13 and WHIP 1.28. The righthander fans 24.9% with 10.7% walks. Grounders 47.2% with 0.78 home runs per nine innings.
Jack Flaherty to start for St Louis. Flaherty has seven starts with an ERA 4.97 plus WHIP 1.76. The righty a strikeout rate of 18.7% with 14.4% walks. His ground balls 41.9% with 1.24 home runs per nine innings. A FIP 5.59 suggests a rise in ERA based on this form.
Pirates sweep a three game series at home to Cincinnati. Brewers lost two of three at Milwaukee. Past ten games Cardinals hitting .184 against righthanders Cardinals locked as a three seed and will play in the Wildcard round. Play Pittsburgh on run line +1.5 runs at -125.
Texas Rangers vs. LA Angels MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Rangers at Angels—Glenn Otto to start for Texas. Otto in 25 starts carries an ERA 4.73 with WHIP 1.34. The righthander is striking out 17.7% with 11% walks. Ground ball rate 43.8% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings.
Reid Detmers to start for LAA. Deitmers has 24 starts producing an ERA 3.88 and WHIP 1.23. The lefthander fans 21.9% with 8.7% walks. Grounders 36.8% with 0.95 home runs per nine innings. Texas loses two of three at Seattle with the 10-9 defeat on Wednesday.
Angels sweep the Athletics in a three game series after their 4-3 win. They have won five of six. Past ten games Rangers hitting .207. Play LA Angels.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Athletics at Mariners—Ken Waldichuk the starter for Oakland. Waldichuk in five starts has an ERA 7.15 with WHIP 1.46. The lefthander strikes out 20.6% with 6.9% walks. Ground balls 32.4% with 1.99 homers per nine innings. A FIP 5.45 suggests a drop in ERA with this form.
Logan Gilbert the starter for Seattle. Gilbert has 31 starts posting an ERA 3.29 plus WHIP 1.20. The righthander a strikeout mark of 23% with 6.4% walks. Grounders 36.4% with 0.91 home runs per nine innings.
Oakland gets swept in their three game series at the Angels. Mariners win two of three at home to the Rangers. Past ten games Oakland an ERA 5.20. Play Seattle on run line -1.5 runs.
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
White Sox at Padres—Davis Martin will start for Chicago. Martin has worked ten games with an ERA 3.86 with WHIP 1.20. The righthander a strikeout rate of 16.8% with 7.3% walks. Ground balls 38% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings.
Yu Darvish starts for San Diego. Darvish starts in 29 games an ERA 3.05 and WHIP 0.93. The veteran fans 25.7% with 4.8% walks. Ground balls 37.1% with 1.00 home runs per nine innings. White Sox salvaged the finale of their three game series with the 4-3 road win at Minnesota. They had lost eight straight.
Padres lose two of three a home to the Dodgers after their 5-2 defeat. Past ten games Padres bullpen an ERA 2.08. Darvish 17-8 to the under facing a team striking out 7 more times per game this season. Past ten games White Sox hitting .212 against righthanders and Padres .217. Play Chicago and San Diego under seven.
Colorado Rockies vs. LA Dodgers MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Rockies at Dodgers—Chad Kuhl to start for Colorado. Kuhl starts in 26 games an ERA 5.45 with WHIP 1.51. The righthander is striking out 18.1% with 9.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.6% with 1.62 home runs per nine innings.
Clayton Kershaw to start for LAD. Kershaw has 20 starts posting an ERA 2.42 and WHIP 0.95. The veteran is fanning 27.4% with 4.4% walks. Ground ball rate 47.7% with 0.70 home runs per nine innings. Rockies are swept in a three game series at San Francisco with the 6-4 defeat.
Colorado has lost nine of ten. LAD win two of three at San Diego. Team record behind Kershaw 27-8 to the run line against a losing team the past three seasons. Past ten games Rockies bullpen an ERA 6.46 and LAD 2.56. Play LA Dodgers on run line -1.5 runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Pick Prediction 9/30/2022
Diamondbacks at Giants—Merrill Kelly the starter for Arizona. Kelly starts in 31 games with an ERA 3.13 and WHIP 1.11. The righthander is striking out 22.2% with 7.5% walks. His ground balls 43.2% with 0.85 home runs per nine innings.
Alex Cobb to start for San Francisco. Cobb has 26 starts posting an ERA 3.67 plus WHIP 1.27. The veteran a strikeout rate of 23.7% with 7.2% walks. Ground balls come in at 61% with limited home run damage. A FIP 2.92 suggests a drop in ERA if this form holds. Arizona splits their two game series at Houston.
San Francisco sweeps Colorado at home in a three game series and has won nine of ten. Past ten games San Francisco hitting .279 against righthanders and a bullpen ERA 1.72. Diamondbacks 17-55 on the road against the NL West past two seasons. Play San Francisco -141.
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