March Madness is heating up, and we’ve got a Big Ten showdown on tap as the Iowa Hawkeyes (16-15) take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14) in the first round of the conference tournament. Both teams have had inconsistent seasons, but with a potential NCAA Tournament bid at stake, expect a high-energy clash at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Buckeyes come into this game as 5.5-point favorites, while the over/under is set at 155.5. With both teams struggling against the spread, bettors will be looking for an edge in this pivotal matchup. Let’s break down the matchup and provide one of the best college basketball free picks for today.
| Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Game Info | |
| When: | Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at 6:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| TV: | Peacock |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Iowa Hawkeyes (16-15) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14)
The Iowa Hawkeyes have been in a downward spiral lately, dropping three of their last five games. They did manage an 83-68 win over Nebraska in their regular-season finale, but before that, they suffered losses to Michigan State (84-91), Northwestern (57-68), and Illinois (61-81). Their lone bright spot outside of Nebraska was a tight 85-79 victory over Washington. The Hawkeyes’ offensive production has remained strong, averaging 82.3 points per game, but their defense has been suspect, leading to their struggles in covering spreads. Payton Sandfort, their leading scorer, is putting up 16.3 PPG with a 40% field goal percentage, but he’ll need to be more efficient for Iowa to have a chance against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State, on the other hand, hasn’t been much better, going 2-3 in their last five games. They ended the season with a disappointing 60-66 loss to Indiana, but managed wins against Nebraska (116-114) and USC (87-82). However, their defeats to UCLA (61-69) and Northwestern (49-70) exposed major inconsistencies, particularly on defense. Bruce Thornton has been the Buckeyes’ catalyst, leading the team with 17.5 PPG while shooting an impressive 49.7% from the field and 42.6% from three-point range. If he gets hot, Iowa could have a tough time keeping up. Despite their struggles, Ohio State has been solid in March, hitting the over in six of their last seven games during the month.
Why Ohio State Will Win
- Bruce Thornton’s Efficiency: Thornton’s 49.7 FG% and 42.6 3PT% give the Buckeyes a reliable offensive weapon.
- Rebounding Edge: Ohio State averages 33.7 rebounds per game compared to Iowa’s 32.4 RPG, which could be key in limiting second-chance points.
- Free Throw Advantage: The Buckeyes shoot 74.8% from the free-throw line, whereas Iowa is only at 70.5%.
- Wednesday Dominance: Ohio State is 7-2 SU in their last nine games on a Wednesday and an incredible 18-1 SU in their last 19 Wednesday games at home.
- Iowa’s ATS Struggles: The Hawkeyes are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games, showing they consistently fail to cover spreads.
NCAAB Odds/Point Spread: Ohio State -5.5, Total Odds: 155.5
Ohio State opens as a 5.5-point favorite (-105), while Iowa is +5.5 (-115). The moneyline is set at -210 for Ohio State and +175 for Iowa. Given Iowa’s struggles against the spread and Ohio State’s slight edge in key statistical categories, backing the Buckeyes to cover seems like the more reliable bet. However, both teams have inconsistent ATS records, so caution is advised. The total is set at 155.5, and while Ohio State has hit the over in six of their last seven March games, Iowa has trended under in nine of their last 13 games. This makes the under a strong consideration despite both teams being high-scoring.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Trends
- Iowa is 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Iowa’s last 13 games.
- Iowa is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games.
- Iowa is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Ohio State.
- The Hawkeyes are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Ohio State.
- Iowa is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Trends
- Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Ohio State is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio State’s last 7 March games.
- Ohio State is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played on a Wednesday.
- The Buckeyes are 18-1 SU in their last 19 Wednesday home games.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes 3/12/25 Betting Picks
With both teams struggling against the spread, this game is not an easy call from an ATS perspective. Iowa’s poor defensive metrics and inefficiency at the free-throw line could be their downfall, especially against an Ohio State team that shoots the ball better and rebounds slightly more effectively. The Buckeyes also have a significant psychological edge on Wednesdays, which could play a factor in a tournament setting.
From a betting perspective, the under 155.5 looks like the sharper play. Iowa’s offense has been inconsistent, and Ohio State has been prone to defensive lapses. If you’re looking for a side, Ohio State -5.5 is the lean, but their ATS struggles make it a cautious bet. If you’re hunting for prop bets, Bruce Thornton’s points over 17.5 could be a strong play, given his efficiency and importance to the Buckeyes’ offense.