The LA Clippers (35-29) head to the Smoothie King Center to face the struggling New Orleans Pelicans (17-48) in a Western Conference showdown on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. With both teams on opposite ends of the standings, this matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity. The Clippers have been solid overall but have struggled against the spread (ATS), while the Pelicans, despite their poor record, have historically played LA tough. Can the Clippers cover as 7.5-point favorites, or will New Orleans continue to frustrate them? Let’s break down the matchup, trends, and winning NBA free picks.
| LA Clippers vs New Orleans Pelicans Game Info | |
| When: | Tuesday, March 11, 2025, at 8:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| TV: | ClipperVision |
| Stream: | NBA League Pass |
LA Clippers (35-29) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (17-48)
The Clippers enter this matchup riding a three-game winning streak, with victories over the Kings (111-110), Knicks (105-95), and Pistons (123-115). Before that, they suffered back-to-back losses against the Suns (117-119) and Lakers (102-108). Despite their winning ways, the Clippers have struggled mightily against the spread, going just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. James Harden continues to be the engine of this offense, averaging 22.2 points and 8.6 assists per game, but turnovers (4.5 per game) remain an issue. While LA boasts a respectable 47.1% field goal percentage and 35.8% shooting from deep, their road struggles (0-10 ATS in their last 10 away games) loom large in this contest.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been in a tailspin, losing four of their last five games. They fell to Memphis (104-107), Houston twice (117-146, 97-109), and the Lakers (115-136), with their only win coming against Utah (128-121). Trey Murphy III has been a bright spot, averaging 21.8 points per game while shooting efficiently, but the Pelicans’ defensive woes have been glaring. They allow too many easy buckets, ranking among the league’s worst defensive efficiency teams. Even at home, where they tend to be more competitive, New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. However, their history against the Clippers suggests they may find a way to keep this one close.
Why the Clippers Can Win
- James Harden Factor – With elite playmaking and scoring ability, Harden is the focal point of the Clippers’ offense, and he’ll look to exploit the Pelicans’ weak perimeter defense.
- Recent Form – LA is on a three-game winning streak, showing strong late-game execution.
- Pelicans’ Defensive Woes – New Orleans has allowed 109+ points in four of their last five games.
- Clippers’ Road Struggles – LA is 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games, but New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS overall in their last six.
- Series History – The Pelicans have won 12 of the last 15 meetings outright, making them a dangerous underdog.
NBA Odds/Point Spread: LA Clippers -7.5, Total: 220.5
The Clippers enter as 7.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -270, while the Pelicans are +220 underdogs. The total is set at 220.5 points, with the over slightly favored. Given the Clippers’ ATS struggles and the Pelicans’ surprising dominance in this head-to-head series, the spread feels high. If you’re backing LA, you’re relying on them breaking out of a long-standing road slump. The total is also tricky—New Orleans has trended under recently, but the Clippers’ games have leaned over.
LA Clippers Betting Trends
- 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
- 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against New Orleans.
- 3-12 SU in their last 15 games against New Orleans.
- 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. New Orleans.
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Trends
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
- 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- 5 of last 7 games have gone OVER the total.
- 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. Clippers.
- UNDER in 5 of last 6 home games.
LA Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans 3/11/25 Betting Picks
Based on recent form and betting trends, this game is far from a lock for the Clippers despite their better record. Their ATS struggles on the road, combined with New Orleans’ historical dominance in this series, suggest the Pelicans could cover. However, the Clippers are in better shape overall and should secure the win. If you’re backing a side, New Orleans +7.5 seems to have value.
For the total, the line is right in the middle of both teams’ recent trends. New Orleans has played to the under in five of its last six home games, while LA’s defense has been inconsistent. With the Pelicans’ struggling offense, the under 220.5 looks like the stronger play.