Texas vs Mississippi State 3/4/2025 College Basketball Picks

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Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction

Texas vs Mississippi State Information

What: Texas vs Mississippi State 3/4/2025 College Basketball Picks
When: Tuesday, March 4, 2025 8:00 EST/5:00 PST
Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi 
Texas vs Mississippi State Line: Mississippi State -7
Total: 150.5
TV: SEC Network

Texas vs Mississippi State Preview

No. 25 Mississippi State (20-9, 8-8 in SEC) welcomes Texas (16-13, 5-11 in SEC) at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville on Tuesday night in this SEC Conference Tournament game. In their last 5 games, the Longhorns are a soul-sucking 1-4 (0-5-0 ATS), losing vs Alabama by 23 (103-80), winning vs Kentucky by 4 (82-78), and then losing at South Carolina by 15 (84-69), at Arkansas by 5 in OT (86-81) and vs Georgia by 16 (83-67). In the last 5 Bulldogs games, they are 3-2 (3-2-0 ATS), winning back-to-back games at Ole Miss by 10 (81-71) and vs Texas A&M by 16 (70-54), the losing back-to-back games at Oklahoma by 6 (93-87) and at Alabama by 38 (111-73) before beating LSU by 12 in their last game (81-69).

 

 

Futures Book Look: DraftKings currently has Mississippi State at 75/1 to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with Texas priced at 150/1. Auburn (+340), Duke (+370), Houston (+750), Florida (+950), Alabama (12/1), Tennessee (12/1), Iowa State (20/1), St John’s (25/1), Michigan State (28/1), Missouri (30/1), and Texas A&M (30/1) are the other top Favorites to win the NCAAB championship. The 2025 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament will tip off on March 19-20 with the First Four with the First Round starting on March 21-22. The Final Four will be on Saturday, April 5 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas with the Championship Game set for Monday, April 7.

Lunardi Has Scuffling Texas As Last Team In…For Now

Texas (13-15-1 ATS, 17-11-1 O/U) is in a straight free-fall and it’s hard to see this team making the NCAA Tournament no matter what the projections say right now. The Longhorns are a strange team who have beaten some of the best (Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky) but also lost to teams you wouldn’t expect (South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia). Once a projected No. 9 seed in the Joe Lunardi Bracketology on ESPN , the Longhorns (+240 Moneyline) are now the projected Last Team In. Texas is led by G Tre Johnson (20.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.6 APG), F Arthur Kaluma (12.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.0 APG), G Jordan Pope (10.7 PPG), G Tramon Mark (9.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG), F Kadin Shedrick (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG), G Chendall Weaver (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG), and G Julian Larry (5.6 RPG, 2.8 APG). The Longhorns average 78.0 PPG a game (#82) while allowing 70.8 PPG, and average 13.4 Assists Per Game (Tied-#235) and 35.4 Rebounds Per Game (Tied-#197).

Texas Betting Trends

  • Texas is 3-6 on the Road (11-6 at Home) 
  • The Over is 8-0-0 in the Longhorns last 8 games
  • Texas is 0-7-0 ATS in its last 7 games
  • The Longhorns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • Texas was 14-20-0 last 2023-24 NCAAB season (41.2%)

Can Mississippi State Knock Texas From Tourney Here?

No. 24 Mississippi State (13-16-0 ATS, 17-12-0 O/U) may have 9 Losses but they have all come to Quality teams in Butler, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, Florida, Oklahoma, and Auburn in their last game. The Bulldogs (-298 Moneyline) have solid 6- and 8-game Win Streaks and are led in scoring by G Josh Hubbard (18.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.3 APG), F KeShawn Murphy (11.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG), G Claudell Harris Jr. (9.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG), G Riley Kugel (9.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG). F RJ Melendez (8.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG), F Cameron Matthews (7.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.7 APG), C Michael Nwoko (6.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and G Kanye Clary (6.3 PPG, 2.6 APG). Mississippi State averages 79.1 PPG (#60) while allowing 73.1 PPG and averages 38.4 RPG (#50) and 15.2 APG (Tied-#89).

Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Mississippi State is 5-5-0 SU in the its last 10 games 
  • The Over is 7-3-0 in the Bulldogs last 10 games overall
  • Mississippi State is 2-0-0 ATS in its last 2 Home games
  • The Bulldogs are 4-6-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • The Over is 3-0-0 in Mississippi State’s last 3 games

Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction

With Texas just joining the SEC from the Big 12 this season, these two schools don’t have a big body of work to handicap and this is the first meeting ever between Texas and Mississippi State in the SEC. The last meeting came way back in 2012 when Donald Trump was “firing” people like Gary Busey and Nene Leakes on The Celebrity Apprentice and not from crucial positions in the US Government. The Longhorns won that game in Austin by 14 (69-55), covering ATS by the hair on their chinny-chin-chins as 13-Point Home Favorites. This handicap will have to look at recent performances and directions, and that means fading the Longhorns. These Texas vs Mississippi State NCAAB picks will side with the Bulldogs ATS with Texas 0-7-0 ATS in its last 7 and the Over, with 8 straight Overs in Texas games as well as 3 straight Overs in Mississippi State games.

Kevin’s Predictions: Mississippi State -7, Texas-MSU Over 150.5

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