Duke vs Virginia Prediction

Duke vs Virginia Game Information

Duke vs Virginia Preview

No. 3 Duke (22-3, 14-1 in ACC) heads to Charlottesville on Monday night to face Virginia (13-12, 6-8 in ACC) at John Paul Jones Arena in this ACC Conference matchup. In their last 5 games, the Blue Devils are 4-1, beating rivals North Carolina by 17 (87-70), winning at Syracuse by 29 (83-54), losing at Clemson by 6 (77-71), beating new conference members California by 21 (78-57) and Stanford by 36 (106-70). In their last 5 games, the Cavaliers are also 4-1, winning at Miami Florida by 11 (82-71), losing to Virginia Tech by 1 (75-74), and then winning their last 3 outings against Pittsburgh by 16 (73-57), Georgia Tech by 14 (75-61), and at rivals Virginia Tech by 3 (73-70).

Futures Book Look: Online sportsbook DraftKings currently has Duke priced at +390 and the second Favorite to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Auburn (+330), Florida (+950), Houston (10/1), Alabama (10/1), Iowa State (16/1), Tennessee (17/1), Purdue (30/1), Texas A&M, (30/1) and St. John’s (35/1) are the other top Favorites to win the NCAAB championship. The 2025 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off on March 19-20 with the First Four with the First Round starting on March 21-22. The Final Four will be on Saturday, April 5 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas with the Championship Game set for Monday, April 7.

Duke Coming in Here Off of Two Massive Blowouts 

No. 3 Duke (15-10-0 ATS, 11-13-0 O/U) heads into this game coming off two huge romps over new conference members California (78-57) and Stanford (106-70), but the Blue Devils (-1000 Moneyline) will be facing an opponent here intent, and good at, slowing down the Pace of a game. Duke is led by 6-foot-9 superstar and Wooden Award Favorite Freshman Cooper Flagg (19.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.0 APG), 6-foot-7 Freshman G Kon Knueppel (13.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG), and 7-foot-2 Freshman Khaman Maluach (8.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), G Tyrese Proctor (12.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.2 APG), G Sion James (8.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.3 APG), G Isaiah Evans (6.1 PPG), G Caleb Foster (5.2 RPG), and F Mason Gillis (4.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG). last year Duke made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 4 seed, clobbering No. 13-seed Vermont in the First Round (64-47), bouncing No. 12-seed James Madison (93-55) in the Round of 32, and then eliminating No. 1-seed Houston in the Sweet 16 (54-51) before falling to No. 4-seed and ACC rivals NC State in the South Regional Final (75-64). Duke averages 81.0 PPG (Tied-#36) and allows just 60.8 PPG (+20.2 PPF PD).

Duke Betting Trends

• Tyrese Proctor has led Duke in Scoring in 3 of the last 4 games
• The Blue Devils are 18-1 SU in their last 19 games overall
• Duke went 21-14-1 ATS last 2023-24 NCAAB season (60%)
• The Blue Devils were 21-14-0 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAB season (60%) 
• Duke is #1 in D1 in Scoring Margin (+20.2 PPG)
• The Blue Devils are 36-24-1 ATS in their last 61 games (60%)

Virginia Will Seek to Slow Pace Down vs Blue Devils

Virginia (12-13-0 ATS, 15-9-1 O/U) head in here winners of 3 straight, but facing a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament who have won by 21 and 36 points its last 2 games means that the Cavaliers (+650) will really need to try to slow this game down to have any chance of the big upset. Virginia has only two players averaging in double-digit scoring in G Isaac McKneeley (13.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.0 APG) and F Elijah Saunders (11.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG) with G Andrew Rohde (8.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 4.4 PG), G Dai Dai Ames (7.8 PPG), F Jacob Cofie (7.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG), and F Blake Buchanan (5.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG). Virginia saw star Ryan Dunn (8.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) graduate last year and be drafted No. 28 by the Phoenix Suns in the 2024 NBA Draft. The Cavaliers average 64.6 PPG (#402) while allowing 64.9 PPG and average 30.7 RPG (#429) and 15.4 APG (#87).

Virginia Betting Trends

• Virginia was 17-16-1 ATS last 2023-24 NCAAB season (51.5%) 
• Virginia is 0-2-0 SU/ATS in the last 2 series meetings 
• The Over is 7-0-1 in the last 8 Cavaliers games
• Virginia is 9-5 at Home this season, 3-5 on Road
• The Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 Virginia games

Duke vs Virginia Prediction

In the last 10 series meetings, Duke is 6-4 SU, but Virginia has gone 6-4-0 ATS with the Blue Devils winning and covering ATS in the last 2 meetings. The Under went 6-4-0 over that span and has won 2 straight with low Totals similar to this game (123.5, 125.5). The Home team has gone 5-5 with no host winning 2 straight times. But the Cavaliers were stronger from 2019 to 2022. This Duke vs Virginia NCAAB pick will look to the Over, with Proctor suddenly becoming a huge scoring threat—he had a game-high 23 points on 9-for-13 shooting vs Stanford last game as the Blue Devils went 62.5% from the Field and 48.3% on their Three-Point Attempts—and Flagg and Knueppel also capable of filling it up for Duke and the Blue Devils have had 87, 83, 71, 78, and 106 points in their last 5 games. Virginia has been a solid Over team in 2025 and 7-0-1 in its last 6 overall.

Kevin’s Prediction: Duke-Virginia Over 130.5

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