Kansas City vs Philadelphia Prediction
Kansas City vs Philadelphia Game Information
| Handicap: | Kansas City vs Philadelphia Prediction 2/9/2025 NFL Picks |
|---|---|
| What: | Super Bowl LIX |
| When: | Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST |
| Where: | Caesars Superdome (Turf Nation S5) New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Point Spread: | Chiefs -1.5 |
| Moneyline: | Chiefs -120, Eagles +100 |
| Total: | 48.5 |
| TV: | FOX, Tubi |
| Radio: | Westwood One, SiriusXM |
Kansas City vs Philadelphia Preview
The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs reach their crescendo on Sunday with Super Bowl LIX from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans with the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) facing the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) with the Chiefs looking to become the first team in NFL history to win this game three straight times. The Chiefs won the AFC West for a 9th straight time and headed into the NFL Playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the AFC earning a First Round Bye. Kansas City ousted the No. 4-seed Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Playoffs Round (23-14) then defeated the No. 2-seed Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game (32-29) with both games being played at Arrowhead Stadium. The Eagles won the NFC East and headed into the Postseason as the NFC’s No. 2-seeded team and defeated the NFC North’s Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round (22-10), the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round (28-22), and their NFC East rivals, the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game (55-23) with all three of those games being played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
In their last 5 games, the Chiefs are 4-1, beating the Texans by 8 (27-19), topping the Steelers by 19 (29-10), losing at Denver by 38 (38-0) in the last game of the NFL Regular Season with Head Coach Andy Reid resting his Starters with the No. 1 seed already clinched, disposing of Houston by 9 in the AFC Divisional Round—ESPN announced that this game had 32.7 million viewers and is the most-watched game on the network in NFL history—and then edging Josh Allen and the Bills in that memorable AFC title tilt. In their last 5 games, the Eagles are 5-0, beating the Cowboys by 34 (41-7), defeating the Giants by 7 in their last game of the NFL Regular Season (20-13), eliminating Green Bay by 12 in the NFC Wild Card Round, downing the Rams by 6 in the NFC Divisional Round, before thrashing the Commanders by 32 points two weekends ago at The Linc.
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Chiefs Seeks a Slice of NFL History With QB Mahomes
Kansas City (9-10-0 ATS, O/U 8-11-0) went unbeaten at Home (10-0) this season and the Chiefs (-120 Moneyline) sort of walked their way into the NFL Postseason, winning 11 one-score games while only having a +59 Point Differential (385 PF-326 PA) in the Regular Season where they went 15-2, only losing to the Bills and Broncos on the Road and going 10-2 vs the AFC. Kansas City is led by superstar QB Patrick Mahomes (3,928 Passing Yards, 26 TD, QBR 69.0 in Regular Season), RB Kareem Hunt (728 Rushing Yards, 7 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (823 Receiving Yards, 3 TD). Kelce (15/1 to be Super Bowl LIV MVP, DraftKings) caught 7 Passes for 117 yards and a TD vs. the Texans while speedy WR Xavier Worthy (28/1 to be SB MVP) had 6 Receptions for 85 yards and a TD vs the Bills, the most-watched AFC Championship Game in history with 59.7 million viewers.
In the Regular Season, Kansas City averaged 22.6 PPG (#15) and allowed 19.2 PPG (#4) and averaged 222.4 Passing Yards (#14) and 105.3 Rushing Yards (#22) and the Chiefs were No. 10 in Turnover Differential (+6). This team seldom beats itself and HC Reid is an absolute genius at game-planning. Kansas City heads in here pretty healthy although WRs Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Mecole Hardman are all on the IR, but Mahomes (+120 SB MVP) will have plenty of targets with Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeAndre Hopkins, and Justin Watson and TE’s Kelce and Noah Gray. Hunt (60/1 SB MVP), Isaiah Pacheco, and Samaje Perine give the Chiefs Offense a very nice trio at RB.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- The Chiefs have won a record 17 consecutive 1-score games
- Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 SU/ATS in his 4 Super Bowl appearances
- Kansas City has now been in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls
- The Chiefs are 4-2-0 ATS in their 6 Super Bowl appearances
- The Under is 4-2-0 in Kansas City’s 6 Super Bowls
- Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 SU lifetime in the NFL Playoffs
- Kansas City is 66-18-0 SU the last 5 seasons (78.6%)
- Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 15-0-0 playing in Domed Stadiums
Philadelphia Will Be Riding the Barkley Train Here
Philadelphia (13-7-0 ATS, 9-11-0 O/U) made one of the best Offseason moves in the NFL in years, signing RB Saquon Barkley from their NFC East rivals, the Giants, and his presence has allowed other Offensive players on Philadelphia not to feel the pressure of having to produce as much as in past seasons. Barkley (+260 SB MVP) rushed 25 times for 119 yards vs the Packers, 26 times for 205 yards and 2 TD vs the Rams, and 15 times for 118 yards and 3 TD vs the Commanders. Starting QB Jalen Hurts (+350 SB MVP) seems healthy now and free of any Concussion issues now, but this team has some injury concerns with DT Jalen Carter (Illness) a bit under the weather, WR DeVota Smith (Hamstring) still a bit hobbled, and RB Kenneth Gainwell (Concussion/Knee) and TE CJ Uzomah (Abdomen) not at 100%. But the biggest concerns are on the OL with C Cam Jurgens and Pro Bowl LG Landon Dickerson (Knee) beat up. Expect Chiefs RDT Chris Jones to line up off Center and try to wreak havoc on this potential OL weakness.
On Offense (27.2 PPG, #7), the Eagles are driven by QB Hurts (2,90 Passing Yards, 18 TD, 67.7 QBR), RB Barkley (2,005 Rushing Yards, 13 TD), and WR AJ Brown (67 Receptions, 1,079 Receiving Yards, 7 TD). Expect Philadelphia to employ a similar game plan like it did in the Wild Card, Divisional, and NFC Championship games by trying to control the Time of Possession and get its points where they can find them. The Eagles have a great Rushing attack (179.3 YPG, #2) but an average Passing attack (187.9 YPG, #29), so if Kansas City can shut down the rush and force the Eagles to pass more, they may avoid a Barkley nightmare. The Eagles Defense (17.8 PPG, #2) will have to put pressure on Mahomes but this team plays very well on Turf surfaces (NFL-low 11.0 PPG) and Philadelphia has 10 total Takeaways in the Playoffs while turning over the football 0 times. Zero times.
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends
- Philadelphia is 10-1-0 SU in its last 11 games overall, 5-0 SU the last 5
- The Eagles are 2-4-0 SU/ATS in their last 6 games vs the Chiefs
- Philadelphia is 7-3-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall
- The Eagles are a perfect 5-0-0 vs the AFC this season
- Philadelphia scored at least 22 Points in 12 of its last 13 games
- The Eagles have 10 Takeaways and 0 Giveaways in the NFL Playoffs
- Philadelphia has alternated 2 Overs and 2 Unders in last 8 (OOUUOOUU)
- The Eagles are 2-1-0 ATS in the Super Bowl in 3 appearances (Under 2-1-0)
Kansas City vs Philadelphia Prediction
Although this Point Spread could very well change on heavy Eagles money closer to kick off on Sunday, the Underdogs have done extremely well in the Super Bowl, going 17-6 the last 23, 13-4 the last 17, and 4-0-0 ATS the last 4. Favorites are 29-27-2 with the Over/Under dead even at 28-28-1 and 5 of the last 10 Super Bowls have seen 0-0 First Quarter scores although I doubt we will see that Sunday. The team who has scored last has won the last 15 Super Bowls, but only God and Vince Lombardi know who will taste the end zone last here in Louisiana. And maybe the new Orange President as he seems to (think he) knows everything. The team with the better Record is 30-20 in the Super Bowl in the last 50 but are 2-12-0 the last 14 and are on a 1-16-0 ATS bender since 2004. The Chiefs had the better (Regular Season) Record by 1 game (15-2 vs 14-3). Meow.
This Kansas City vs Philadelphia NFL pick will go against magic man Mahomes and a Potential Three-peat as the Chiefs Rushing Defense ranks just No. 15 in the NFL and I expect Hurts and Barkley to be able to run the ball on the friendly indoor turf in the Big Easy. Also expect a big game from TE Dallas Goedert (120/1 SB MVP) and the Eagles Defense to do a good enough job of stopping Kelce, but they will need to worry about the deep KC WR corps. My purple crystal ball sees 3 TDs and 3 FGs for the winners and 3 TDs and just 1 FG for the losers and this should be a pretty entertaining game with the friendly playing surface, no Weather problems, and few real Injuries hampering either team.
Reid will have the coaching edge, but with Underdogs doing so well in this game, the Eagles getting 10 TOs and not giving the pigskin up once, Superman Barkley intent on celebrating his 28th birthday with a Win, and Philadelphia a much better team than they were in this shootout Over game 2 years ago in suburban Phoenix, I see a relatively high-scoring affair where Luck will be with the NFC champs with the whiners (and Chiefs haters) unable to say that Kansas City gets all the breaks from the Referees. They simply don’t. You make your own “breaks” in sports. This could be a one-score game that the two-time defending NFL champions finally lose, Bubba. Winning three straight championships in professional or amateur sports is a very hard thing to do as the Las Vegas Aces (WNBA) and Connecticut Huskies (NCAAB) found and are finding out. Enjoy.
Predicted Super Bowl LIV Final Score: Eagles 30 Chiefs 24
Kevin’s Super Bowl LIV Picks: Eagles +1.5, Over 48.5 (FanDuel)
Best Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD -195, Xavier Worthy Over 6.5 Rushing Yards +100 (DraftKings)
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